Florida vs. Missouri prediction, pick, odds, spread, how to watch live stream, game time, TV channel

Football

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Image Credit: Michael Nash

What started the season as a difficult schedule become even tougher than the Florida Gators could have predicted. Florida on Saturday faces its second-straight ranked opponent on the road as part of four in a five-game span to close the season. The No. 9 Missouri Tigers play host to the Gators seeking to continue a tremendous season that has Mizzou on the precipice of a New Year’s Six bowl berth.

Meanwhile, Florida is still trying to become bowl-eligible — as it has since mid-October. Head coach Billy Napier’s bunch has undoubtedly faced its share of adversity this season, and there should be no doubt that picking up a win at Faurot Field in Columbia, Missouri, over a top-10 team would be a notable accomplishment to breathe some life into the program as it enters an immensely important offseason. However, the Gators enter as double-digit underdogs, and there is no doubt that their road record under Napier has been immensely poor.

Still, Florida looked game last week against LSU with the final score not indicative of the closeness of the game, and while Mizzou does have its share of playmakers, no one in the nation is like Jayden Daniels.

What will go down Saturday night? Let’s find out.

Take a look at the updated Gators depth chart, which includes some notable changes on defense, along with Napier’s thoughts on recruiting and Florida’s losing streak.

Tale of the tape

Injuries and absences

Active (2): DL Tyreak Sapp (upper body), DL Cam Jackson (upper body)
Questionable (2): OL Austin Barber (upper body), WR Andy Jean (lower body)
Out (5): DB Devin Moore (concussion), WR Caleb Douglas (leg), TE Keon Zipperer (knee), OL Caden Jones (foot), TE Jonathan Odom (upper body)
Out for season (4): LB Shemar James (knee), LB Jack Pyburn (knee), DL Justus Boone (knee), RB Cam Carroll (knee)

Former Florida linebacker Ty’Ron Hopper, who transferred to Mizzou, will miss the game with an ankle injury.

Viewing information

Date: Saturday, Nov. 17 | Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Location: Faurot Field — Columbia, Missouri [62,621]

TV: ESPN (Joe Tessitore, Jesse Palmer, Katie George)
Live stream: ESPN+ | SiriusXM: 384 | Radio: WRUF, TuneIn
Live updates: @OnlyGators on Twitter

Game notes

» Florida and Missouri are 6-6 all-time with Mizzou holding a 3-2 lead in Columbia and UF 3-1 over the last four meetings.
» The Gators are 2-9 away from home under Napier and on a 2-15 drought dating back to the last regime.
» Florida is 2-11 in its last 13 true road games.
» The Gators started the season with 35 new scholarship players on the roster, tied for 12th most in the FBS. They also had just 115 combined starts returning, second-fewest in the nation, and only 69 returning players, ninth-fewest in the nation.
» Florida had scored on 35 straight red-zone trips (27 touchdowns) before being stopped late in last week’s game. It enters the game ranked 16th nationally in conversation rate (.927).
» The Gators under Napier are 10-1 when leading after the third quarter and 9-3 when rushing for at least 150 yards (losing last week). They are 4-1 this season when scoring first, 5-0 when leading at halftime and 4-0 when outrushing their opponent. However, UF is 3-8 under Napier when opponents score first, 1-6 when scoring less than 21 points, 4-12 when allowing 21+ points, 1-11 when tied or trailing after the third quarter and 2-9 when being outrushed.
» Florida is 2-8 against AP Top 25 teams under Napier, 1-3 this season. That drought extends to 8-16 against ranked opponents (2-6 vs. top five teams, 5-9 vs. top 10 teams) since 2018. In that same span, UF is 37-12 against unranked opponents.
» The Gators have scored in 446 consecutive games, an NCAA record.

Prediction and analysis

Spread: Florida +10.5 | O/U: 56

Thought 16 points was too many to give LSU last week only for the Tigers to cover by one. Mizzou is more stout defensively than LSU, though it did lose head-to-head earlier this season and is nowhere near as battle tested. These Tigers have benefitted from a relatively weak schedule, and while they are less explosive than the Gators’ opponent last week, they enter this game feeling themselves coming off an absolute whipping of Tennessee. Meanwhile, Florida continues to wallow in its struggles, particularly away from home where it is just 2-9 under Napier, 1-4 this season.

This is entirely about the Gators defense, which has struggled massively down the stretch and now goes up against another top-tier playmaker who picked up more than 300 combined yards a week ago. Florida should be able to move the ball offensively, but it lacks the same explosion as Mizzou, and the inability to take the top off a defense has cost UF against more talented opponents all season. The final could actually fall around this spread, but the Tigers are more likely to cover with the game going over.

2023 records: ATS picks 3-7 | O/U picks 6-4 | Underdog SU picks 1-0

Odds and ends

» Uniforms: Florida will wear white jerseys, blue pants and orange helmets. (Fun fact: UF will not wear orange jerseys or pants at all this season.)