Florida vs. Missouri: Prediction, pick, odds, spread, football game time, watch live stream, TV channel

By OnlyGators.com Staff
October 8, 2022
Florida vs. Missouri: Prediction, pick, odds, spread, football game time, watch live stream, TV channel

Image Credit: Graphic by Michael Nash

Despite having their Week 5 game delayed 24 hours due to Hurricane Ian, the Florida Gators made the most of their excursion last Sunday by exorcizing some demons and working out some kinks to get right before SEC play continued. The timing was perfect given the Missouri Tigers enter Ben Hill Griffin Stadium fresh off a near-upset of the reigning national champion Georgia Bulldogs last week.

Florida on Saturday is seeking its first SEC victory in seven such games as it looks to avoid a drought the program has not experienced in 75 years. Meanwhile, Gators head coach Billy Napier aims to get one up on the Tigers’ Eliah Drinkwitz, whom Napier never beat when both men were leading Sun Belt teams (0-2).

All of it comes at a notably important time for Florida given this is the first of two home games before the bye week. Once that reprieve ends, the Gators will only play at home once more over the final five weeks of the regular season with four away games ahead. In other words, UF needs to get off the schneid in SEC play and try to ride that momentum into next week’s showdown with LSU.

Given Mizzou’s somewhat-surprising success against Florida since joining the SEC, that first part of the equation is easier said than done. What will go down Saturday when the Gators and Tigers square off in The Swamp on homecoming? Let’s find out.

Tale of the tape

Florida GatorsMissouri Tigers
Head coachBilly NapierEliah Drinkwitz
Record3-2 (0-2)2-3 (0-2)

Injuries and absences

Active (1): S Trey Dean III (lower body)
Questionable (2): QB Jack Miller III (thumb), TE Arlis Boardingham (shoulder)
Out (3): RT Michael Tarquin (lower body), LS Marco Ortiz (upper body), LB Diwun Black (lower body), TE Nick Elksnis (upper body), LB Kenny Anyaehie (lower body)

Viewing information

Date: Saturday, Oct. 8 | Time: 12 p.m. ET
Location: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium — Gainesville, Florida [88,548]

TV: ESPNU (John Schriffen, Dustin Fox, Lauren Sisler)
Live stream: ESPN+ | SiriusXM: 137/190 | Radio: WRUF, TuneIn
Live updates: @OnlyGators on Twitter

Game notes

» Missouri holds a rare series lead over Florida with a 6-5 advantage all-time, though the programs are 5-5 since Mizzou joined the SEC in 2012. While the Gators have won two of the last three meetings, the Tigers have won three of the last five since 2017.
» UF is 3-2 against Mizzou all-time in The Swamp.
» Drinkwitz (Appalachian State) is 2-0 all-time against Napier (Louisiana).
» Napier went 4-0 with the Ragin’ Cajuns when coaching on a short week.
» Last week, the Gators won for the 750th time in program history.
» Florida has scored 24+ points in six of its last 11 games.
» UF is 3-0 this season when rushing for 150+ yards.
» The Gators are 7-12 against ranked opponents (2-4 vs. top five teams, 5-7 vs. top 10 teams) and 29-8 against unranked opponents since 2018.
» Florida was the only team in the nation to play three top-20 opponents in the first four weeks of the season.
» The Gators are 172-33 in The Swamp since 1990, boasting the second-best home winning percentage (.839) in the nation across that span.
» Florida is one of two FBS teams nationally (Alabama) that has not yet lost to an opponent that finished the season with a losing record since 2004.
» The Gators have scored in 428 consecutive games, an NCAA record.

Prediction and analysis

Spread: Florida -10 | O/U: 53

While this SEC East series is even, the games have not been. Outside of last year’s one-point overtime loss and the teams’ first meeting in 2012, a seven-point win, the scoreboard has looked quite lopsided no matter which way it has tilted. In the eight meetings between those two games, the average margin of victory has been nearly 23 points per contest. Why? It just so happens that Mizzou’s successful seasons have coincided with some of Florida’s most notable down points. To wit: Three of the Tigers’ five SEC series wins came during seasons in which the Gators fired their coach (2014, 2017, 2021).

Florida enters Saturday in a good spot fresh off a get-right game against Eastern Washington. Meanwhile, Mizzou has to feel deflated after giving up a lead it held at home for the better part of four quarters against a top-ranked Georgia team. Now, the Tigers are hitting the road and playing in one of the sport’s toughest environments — and they may even be without their top pass catcher.

As long as Anthony Richardson does not revert after making a ton of progress over the last two weeks, the Gators should cover this number in a high-scoring game. Richardson has looked like a completely different — and much better — player over the last two weeks. One could argue that a single defensive player’s miscues were the primary issues in Florida’s loss at Tennessee, and those cropping back up cannot be ruled out, which is why there is a lean to go over the total given UF’s defensive struggles.

2022 records: ATS picks 1-4 | O/U picks 3-2

Odds and ends

» Uniforms: Florida will wear blue jerseys, white pants and orange helmets for the fifth straight home game and fifth of six times overall this season.

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