Florida at Missouri: Pick, prediction, odds, line, spread, time, TV, watch live stream

Football

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Image Credit: Michael Nash

The No. 11 Florida Gators may be eliminated from SEC championship competition by the time the sun sets on Saturday, but there is still plenty left on the table for a team looking to win 10 games for the second straight year under head coach Dan Mullen. Primarily, Florida is aiming for a spot in a New Year’s Six bowl game, a prominent postseason placement. The Gators are also looking to build for next season when, despite losing a number of key players, they will be looking to return to the national championship conversation.

A let down against the Missouri Tigers, a team that has given Florida fits since it joined the SEC in 2012, would be disastrous. The Gators have a lot working against them on Saturday afternoon, particularly the weather, kickoff time and the fact that the Tigers are getting their best player back. Still, there’s no excuses at this juncture in the season.

What will go down in the game? Let’s find out with plenty of information, notes, analysis and a game prediction for Florida at Missouri. Keep on reading for a full against-the-spread breakdown below.

Viewing information

Date: Saturday, Nov. 16 | Time: Noon ET
Location: Memorial Stadium — Columbia, Missouri [71,168]

TV: CBS (Carter Blackburn, Rick Neuheisel, Aaron Taylor)
Live stream: CBSSports.com | SiriusXM: 135/192 | Radio: WRUF, TuneIn
Live updates: @OnlyGators on Twitter

Tale of the tape

Injuries and absences

Probable (2): OL Brett Heggie (head), DB Brad Stewart (leg)
Questionable (3): DE Jabari Zuniga (ankle), LB Amari Burney (knee), DT Marlon Dunlap (undisclosed)
Out (1): DT Elijah Conliffe (leg)
Out for season (4): QB Feleipe Franks (ankle), CB C.J. McWilliams (Achilles), LB David Reese (Achilles), LB Jeremiah Moon (foot)

Game notes

» Missouri is 5-3 all-time against Florida, 4-3 since joining the SEC. The Gators’ four losses to the Tigers have come by a combined 121-63 with UF losing all four games by double digits.
» The Gators began a season 6-0 for the first time since 2015. LSU ended both undefeated starts for UF in Tiger Stadium. Florida had won 10 straight games for the first time since 2011-12 and did so by a combined 339-96.
» Through its first 10 games this season, UF is outscoring opponents 203-66 in the second half and 108-29 in the fourth quarter.
» The Gators are second nationally in interceptions (14), eighth in sacks (3.5 per game), sixth in red-zone defense (.615) and ninth in scoring defense (15.0 points per game).
» Florida is 4-3 against ranked opponents under Mullen (3-3 against top 10 teams), beating three ranked teams in a single season in 2018 for the first time since 2012. It is 13-2 against unranked teams under Mullen.
» UF is looking for its first back-to-back 10-win seasons in a decade (2008-09).
» Under Mullen, the Gators are 12-0 when scoring first, 14-0 when leading after the third quarter, 13-0 when allowing 20 points or fewer, 5-1 in games decided by fewer than 10 points and 14-0 when outrushing their opponent.
» Florida has scored 94 offensive touchdowns in 23 games under Mullen. It scored 93 in 38 games from 2015-17.
» Mullen is 4-2-1 against the spread as an underdog at UF.
» Florida had scored 24+ points in 12 straight games for the first time since doing so in 24 consecutive contests from 2007-09. That streak fell two weeks ago.
» UF has scored in 395 consecutive games, an NCAA record.
» Florida is one of only two FBS teams (Alabama) that has not lost to an opponent that finished the season with a losing record dating back to the 2008 season.

Prediction and analysis

Spread: Florida -6.5 | O/U: 52

If this game was in The Swamp, you would likely see a two-touchdown spread for the Gators. Forget the homefield advantage, that’s an indication of how much better the Tigers play at home than they do on the road. Mizzou is 5-0 on Farout Field this season, though it has not faced an opponent of Florida’s caliber. The only time it did, it got blitzed 27-0 at Georgia … but even that game was without its starting quarterback in graduate transfer Kelly Bryant.

This game feels eerily like two other road SEC East games that Florida has played this season — at Kentucky on Sept. 14 (29-21) and at South Carolina on Oct. 19 (38-27). The Gators trailed in both games against inferior competition and seemed unlikely to win. In the end, they eventually came through and won each game by more than a touchdown. It’s going to be cold in Missouri, and the 11 a.m. CT local kickoff is the earliest game that Florida will play all season. That’s a recipe for an upset … in the first half. Ultimately, the Gators’ talent should win out to cover the touchdown, and I’m leaning on the under.

2019 records: ATS picks 3-5-2 | O/U picks 6-4

Odds and ends

» Florida will wear traditional white jerseys and blue pants and orange helmets.