Florida vs. Missouri: Pick, prediction, spread, odds, football game time, watch live stream, TV channel

Football

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Image Credit: Michael Nash

The Florida Gators are back on the road after a brief one-week stop at home, and they are entering a game that may have significant implications beyond the final score. With the Gators 1-4 away from home this season and having struggled massively the last time they were on the road, the Missouri Tigers present an opportunity for a true get-right game given they are ranked near the bottom of the FBS on both sides of the ball.

If Florida head coach Dan Mullen hopes to keep his job after his hot seat was set on fire over the last two weeks, it starts with beating Missouri — perhaps handily — and taking that momentum into the final game of the regular season. Saturday is also an opportunity for the Gators to lock up bowl eligibility for the fourth straight season and avoid the same fate suffered the last time UF played this poorly back in 2017.

With recruiting still cratering and plenty of questions surrounding Mullen, particularly after the unfortunate first half against Samford last week, Florida needs a big win and end to the season in an effort to reverse its fortunes. Somehow, it all feels possible for the Gators due to the team’s talent despite the last couple of weeks.

What will go down Saturday when Florida visits Missouri? Let’s find out.

Tale of the tape

Injuries and absences

Questionable (5): DL Khris Bogle (undisclosed), LB Lacedrick Brunson (undisclosed), S Tre’Vez Johnson (undisclosed), DL Daquan Newkirk (undisclosed), OL Ethan White (ankle)
Out for season (3): LB Ventrell Miller (torn biceps) CB Jaydon Hill (knee), DB Kamar Wilcoxson (knee)
Notable inactives (?): To be announced before kickoff

Viewing information

Date: Saturday, Nov. 20 | Time: 4 p.m. ET
Location: Memorial Stadium at Farout Field — Columbia, Missouri [62,621]

TV: SEC Network (Dave Neal, Deuce McAllister, Andraya Carter)
Live stream: WatchESPN | SiriusXM: 384/974 | Radio: WRUF, TuneIn
Live updates: @OnlyGators on Twitter

Game notes

» Florida and Missouri are 5-5 all-time, though the Gators hold a 5-4 series edge since the Tigers joined the SEC.
» Under Mullen, Florida is 24-5 when scoring first, 27-3 when leading at halftime, 30-2 when leading after the third quarter, 23-1 when allowing 20 points or fewer and 26-2 when outrushing its opponents. The negative marks in those last two statistics have come this season to Kentucky (both) and Alabama, respectively.
» UF is 7-11 when being outrushed by an opponent and 6-7 in games decided by 10 points or less.
» Florida is 6-10 against ranked opponents (2-4 vs. top five teams, 4-7 vs. top 10 teams) and 26-6 against unranked teams under Mullen. It is also 13-1 against nonconference opponents.
» The Gators have scored 24+ points in 33 of their last 39 games.
» Florida’s 492.4 yards per game ranks sixth among FBS teams.
» UF is 10th nationally with 227.6 yards rushing per game. Its 2,276 yards rushing through 10 games is the most since 2009 and second-most since 1990. The Gators are also first in the nation averaging 6.0 yards per carry.
» Florida is one of two FBS teams nationally (Alabama) that has not lost to an opponent that finished the season with a losing record since 2004.
» UF has scored in 420 consecutive games, an NCAA record.

Prediction and analysis

Spread: Florida -9 | O/U: 69

There’s just no way this spread makes sense, which creates concern that oddsmakers know something we do not. It would be one thing if the Gators were favored like this at home given the advantage of playing in The Swamp, but Florida is 2-5 ATS as a favorite vs. FBS opponents this season, 0-5 ATS in games played away from home and 1-4 straight up in those non-home games.

Florida is much better statistically on both offense and defense compared to Missouri, but this is still a Gators team that has put forward pathetic defensive efforts in consecutive games and was legitimately on the ropes after giving up a program-record 42 points in the first half to an FCS team. Florida absolutely turned it around defensively in the second half last week, and that is commendable, but who knows how it is going to come out in a road game like this.

As I’ve said the last few weeks, wagering on this Gators team is ill-advised because Florida is completely unpredictable week to week. There’s a chance it wins this game easily. There’s also a possibility it loses outright. Missouri straight up beat South Carolina 31-28, a team against which UF lost 40-17 the week prior. However, the Tigers’ only wins this season are against SC, Vanderbilt, North Texas and Central Michigan. No matter what, it would be a shock to see the Gators defense completely stop the Tigers, so the over is a lean along with Missouri getting points, just don’t take either of those to the bank.

2021 records: ATS picks 2-8 | O/U picks 4-5-1

Odds and ends

» Florida will wear traditional white jerseys, blue pants and orange helmets.