Florida vs. Samford: Pick, prediction, spread, odds, football game time, watch live stream, TV channel

Football

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Image Credit: Michael Nash

After five weeks away from the friendly confines of Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, the Florida Gators finally return home. Unfortunately, Florida has lost three straight games since homecoming, being outscored 74-24 over the last two.

If there’s a such thing as a get-right game in college football, the Gators have it on Saturday as the FCS Samford Bulldogs come to town. Not only is Samford struggling this season, Florida has a stellar record against FCS competition, not just overall but specifically under head coach Dan Mullen.

The Gators are 4-0 against such teams since Mullen took over and have not allowed a single point to an FCS program since 2018. Interestingly enough, Florida and Samford (previously known as Howard College) have not gone head-to-head on the gridiron in 99 years. The Gators are 2-0 all-time against the Bulldogs with a 91-0 all-time margin from 1921-22.

Despite this being a massively disappointing season for UF, bowl eligibility is still possible. First, Florida must win Saturday. Then it has to take at least one of two at Missouri and against Florida State over the ensuing two weeks. With recruiting cratering and plenty of questions surrounding Mullen, the first step the Gators can actually take is pounding the Bulldogs and getting out of the game healthy.

What will go down Saturday when Florida visits Samford? Let’s find out.

Tale of the tape

Injuries and absences

Questionable (8): QB Anthony Richardson (knee), WR Trent Whittemore (knee), OL Jean Delance (undisclosed), LB Lacedrick Brunson (undisclosed), CB Avery Helm (undisclosed), S Tre’Vez Johnson (undisclosed), DL Daquan Newkirk (undisclosed), OL Ethan White (ankle)
Out for season (3): LB Ventrell Miller (torn biceps) CB Jaydon Hill (knee), DB Kamar Wilcoxson (knee)
Notable inactives (?): To be announced before kickoff

Viewing information

Date: Saturday, Nov. 13 | Time: 12 p.m. ET
Location: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium — Gainesville, FL [88,548]

TV: None
Live stream: SECNetwork+, ESPN+ (Mike Couzens, Dustin Fox)
SiriusXM: 380 | Radio: WRUF, TuneIn
Live updates: @OnlyGators on Twitter

TV replay: Thursday, Nov. 18 at 12 p.m. on SEC Network

Game notes

» Florida is 2-0 all-time against Samford with the programs meeting for the first time in 99 years. The Gators beat the Bulldogs consecutively in 1921-22, outscoring them by a combined 91-0.
» UF is 4-0 vs. FCS teams under Mullen, winning those games by a combined score of 199-16. Florida has not allowed an FCS opponent to score against it since Idaho in 2018.
» Under Mullen, Florida is 24-5 when scoring first, 27-3 when leading at halftime, 29-2 when leading after the third quarter, 23-1 when allowing 20 points or fewer and 25-2 when outrushing its opponents. The negative marks in those last two statistics have come this season to Kentucky (both) and Alabama, respectively.
» UF is 7-11 when being outrushed by an opponent and 6-7 in games decided by 10 points or less.
» Florida is 6-10 against ranked opponents (2-4 vs. top five teams, 4-7 vs. top 10 teams) and 25-6 against unranked teams under Mullen. It is also 12-1 against nonconference opponents.
» The Gators have scored 24+ points in 32 of their last 38 games.
» Florida’s 467.4 yards per game ranks ninth among Power Five teams, and the team’s 4,207 total yards are the second-most through nine games since 1991.
» UF is 12th nationally with 224.8 yards rushing per game after spending most of the season among the top five. Its 2,023 yards rushing through nine games is the most since 2009 and second-most since 1990.
» Florida is one of two FBS teams nationally (Alabama) that has not lost to an opponent that finished the season with a losing record since 2004.
» UF has scored in 419 consecutive games, an NCAA record.

Prediction and analysis

Spread: Florida -31 | O/U: 70

Don’t wager on this game. Please don’t. There’s simply no predicting this Gators team week to week, and though the expectation should be a more inspired effort due to staffing changes, Florida also has a deep injury list and could potentially rest starters in the second half if it gets up big. If I had to guess, I’d go with UF covering given it has beaten FCS opponents by 45.8 points on average under Mullen. This total is huge, though. Unless you think Samford is going to score three or four touchdowns, stick with the under. But again, don’t wager on this game. Please don’t.

2021 records: ATS picks 2-7 | O/U picks 4-4-1

Odds and ends

» Florida will wear traditional blue jerseys, white pants and orange helmets.