Florida vs. Samford game: Where to watch, TV channel, kickoff time, preview, prediction, pick, odds

Football

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Image Credit: Michael Nash

The Florida Gators have a second chance at making a first impression Saturday when they attempt to put a demoralizing loss behind them and move forward with new motivation against the Samford Bulldogs. There have been significant changes to the depth chart over the last week due to injury, none bigger than redshirt senior quarterback Graham Mertz being ruled out of Week 2 with a concussion.

In steps five-star freshman DJ Lagway, one of the highest-rated signal callers in program history, to start his first career game. Lagway will be the first freshman since Treon Harris in 2015 to lead the Gators out on the field, and he does so having played just over one quarter in his collegiate career.

While all eyes will be on Lagway, three starters were lost on Florida’s defense — two of which were among the top transfer portal acquisitions UF made this offseason. This as the Gators go up against a Bulldogs team that scored 52 points in The Swamp just three years ago as the prior coaching era came to a close.

Florida similarly enters this game having reached a tipping point for head coach Billy Napier. While all expectations are the Gators winning Saturday, their performance on both sides of the bal will be under an immense microscope. Unlike most FCS opponents, Florida does not have the luxury of playing Samford as a warm-up game for the season. It is already under the crucible and needs to perform well to give itself a chance to chance its trajectory before Texas A&M visits Gainesville, Florida, next week.

What will go down Saturday evening in The Swamp? Let’s find out.

Tale of the tape

Injuries and absences

Questionable (5): WR Tank Hawkins (shoulder), WR Ja’Quavion Fraziars (knee), WR Andy Jean (wrist), TE Keon Zipperer (knee), RB Cam Carroll (knee)
Out (5): QB Graham Mertz (concussion), S Asa Turner (lower body), CB Devin Moore (upper body), DE Joey Slackman (undisclosed), DB Sharif Denson (undisclosed)
Out for season (2): WR Kahleil Jackson (knee), DL Jamari Lyons (ankle)

Where to watch Florida vs. Samford

Date: Saturday, Sept. 7 | Time: 7 p.m. ET
Location: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium — Gainesville, Florida [88,548]

TV: n/a | Live stream: ESPN+ (Clay Matvick, Steve Addazio)
SiriusXM: 132/201 | Radio: WRUF, TuneIn
Live updates: @OnlyGators on Twitter

Game notes

» Florida is 3-0 all-time against Samford with a 70-52 win in the last meeting on Nov. 13, 2021. That was the highest-scoring game in the history of Florida Field.
» UF is 23-1 against FCS teams since 1981 winning those games by an average of 38.8 points.
» The Gators saw an NCAA-best 34-game winning streak in home openers — that dated back to 1990 — get snapped last week in The Swamp.
» Florida opened three straight seasons against ranked opponents for the first time in program history.
» The Gators have lost three straight games in The Swamp. A fourth straight would be the longest losing streak at Florida Field since 1979.
» UF is 9-5 at home, 2-7 on the road and 0-3 in neutral-site games under Napier.
» The Gators under Napier are 10-2 when leading after the third quarter, 9-3 when leading at halftime and 9-4 when rushing for at least 150 yards. However, UF is 3-10 under Napier when opponents score first, 1-8 when scoring less than 21 points, 4-15 when allowing 21+ points, 1-13 when tied or trailing after the third quarter and 2-10 when being outrushed.
» Florida is 2-11 against AP Top 25 teams under Napier, 1-6 over the last two seasons. That drought extends to 8-19 against ranked opponents (2-7 vs. top five teams, 5-11 vs. top 10 teams) since 2018. In that same span, UF is 37-12 against unranked opponents.
» The Gators have scored in 449 consecutive games, an NCAA record.

Prediction and analysis

Spread: Florida -37.5 | O/U: 53.5

Even if the Gators wind up dominating the Bulldogs on Saturday, this is quite a spread to surpass — particularly with a true freshman quarterback at the helm and a defense (that played poorly last week) missing numerous key players after only one game. Florida is down two starters in the secondary and another on the defensive line. It gave up 41 points last week and 24+ points across seven straight games.

This spread suggests a score around 45-9. The last time the Gators eclipsed that scoring total was against McNeese last year in this same spot. That game featured Ricky Pearsall going off and five touchdowns from Florida on the ground.

Most games involving the Gators are no-play scenarios; we provide picks in this space simply to satiate the interest for such content. This is another of those situations. Despite having success in a similar situation 12 months ago, the leans here are Samford with the points and the over.

2024 records: 0-1 ATS, 1-0 O/U

Odds and ends

» Uniforms: Florida will wear blue jerseys, orange pants and orange helmets for the first and only time this season.