Florida vs. Missouri game: Prediction, pick, line, spread, odds, watch live stream online

By Adam Silverstein
November 3, 2018
Florida vs. Missouri game: Prediction, pick, line, spread, odds, watch live stream online

Image Credit: Graphic by Michael Nash

The No. 11 Florida Gators return home for the first time in a month when it hosts the Missouri Tigers. The focus on Saturday will be how Florida responds to its soul-crushing loss to rival Georgia one week ago, a game that took the Gators out of the race for the SEC East and the national championship.

While UF is still ranked inside the top 15 of the College Football Playoff Rankings, one would think it does not have the remaining schedule to get itself in the CFP conversation. Still, Florida has a lot to play for as a New Year’s Six berth is a likelihood should it win out through the end of the season. With four games left — three of them at home — that is still very much a possibility for the Gators.

What will go down on Saturday afternoon? Let’s take a look at what you need to know and how you can watch Florida-Missouri.

Viewing information

Date: Saturday, Nov. 3 | Time: 4 p.m. ET
Location: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium — Gainesville, Florida [Capacity: 88,548]

TV: SEC Network (Tom Hart, Jordan Rodgers, Cole Cubelic)
Live stream: WatchESPN.com | SiriusXM: 98/191 | Radio: WRUF, TuneIn

Live updates: @OnlyGators on Twitter

Tale of the tape

No. 11 Florida Gators Missouri Tigers
Head coach Dan Mullen Barry Odom
Record 6-2 (4-2 SEC) 4-4 (0-4 SEC)
Conference SEC SEC

Prediction and analysis

Spread: Florida -6 | O/U: 58

Homecoming has not been kind to the Gators since 2010, but this one is different. Florida has clearly improved this season, and while the final scores of its two losses do not look great, neither reflects how close those games were until the end. The Gators are a couple healthy defensive players away from potentially being undefeated this season, but even with that said, Drew Lock may be the toughest test that Florida’s secondary faces this season. The bad news? It is expected to be thin again on the back end with no reason to believe that the players benched last week will be back on the field. If either was to suit up, that would be an extra boost for a UF team that will at least see star sophomore cornerback CJ Henderson return to action after a bruised back forced him out of the Georgia game early and seriously affected the secondary.

The difference between those Dawgs and these Tigers is not only the talent that surrounds their quarterbacks but the defensive side of the ball as well. I do think the Gators will struggle for a bit in this game, but ultimately, Florida should be able to pull away at home and cover the touchdown. Mizzou has lost nine straight against nationally ranked opponents, while UF beat a top-five team already this season. This is not the same Florida team that it has pushed around over the last few seasons. In terms of the total, it is really a toss-up as the game could go either way, but I’d err on the Gators eventually slowing down the Tigers and this game falling under.

2018 records: ATS picks 4-3 | O/U picks 5-2

Injuries and absences

Active (1): OL T.J. McCoy (leg)
Probable (1): DB CJ Henderson (back)
Out (2): WR Jacob Copeland (knee), RB Malik Davis (foot) | Out for season (2): CB Marco Wilson (torn ACL), DB Quincy Lenton (torn Achilles)

Sophomore defensive back Brad Stewart Jr., who missed the Georgia game for an undisclosed reason that had been rumored to be a potential suspension, was named as a starter before the game. Sophomore DB Brian Edwards also did not see snaps on defense last Saturday and was relegated to special teams work.

Game notes

» Missouri is 4-3 all-time against Florida, and the teams are an even 3-3 since Mizzou joined the SEC. The Gators are 2-1 against the Tigers in The Swamp.
» UF is 25-4 on homecoming since 1989 and 67-25-2 all-time. The Gators had won 21 straight games on homecoming but are just 4-4 this decade with their first of those four losses coming to Mullen’s Mississippi State team in 2010.
» Florida is 4-1 against unranked opponents this season with its one loss coming to a Kentucky team that is now No. 9 in the nation. It is also the Gators’ only loss at home thus far under Mullen (3-1).
» Florida and Syracuse are the only teams in the College Football Playoff Rankings that won fewer than six games last season.
» The Gators are 3-0 when scoring first and 5-0 when leading after the third quarter. Florida is also 4-0 when allowing 20 points or fewer and 5-0 when outrushing their opponent.
» Florida’s turnover margin has tanked this season after coughing up the ball three times in consecutive games. It is now tied for 17th nationally (+6) after being in the top 10 all season.
» The Gators have scored in 380 consecutive games, an NCAA record.
» UF is one of two FBS teams nationally since 2008 (Alabama) to have not lost a single game to a team that ended a season with a losing record.

Odds and ends

» Florida will wear traditional orange helmets with blue jerseys and white pants for homecoming on Saturday.

» The Gators have painted the end zones of Florida Field in orange for the first time since the late 1980s. The end zones will remain painted that color for the final three home games of the season.

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