Florida vs. Mississippi State prediction, pick, preview: Where to watch, TV channel, game time, odds, spread

Football

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Image Credit: Michael Nash

The Florida Gators enter Week 4 with their backs against the wall. It was known the 2024 season would feature a murderer’s row of opponents, but on-field struggles were supposed to be saved for later in the campaign. Instead, Florida enters its first road game sitting at 1-2 (0-1 SEC) with Billy Napier on the hottest seat he’s endured since beginning his head coaching career.

One of few SEC teams that have actually gotten off to a worse start is the Mississippi State Bulldogs (1-2, 0-0 SEC), which got bludgeoned at home last week and are still seeking an FBS victory under their first-year coach. Speaking of FBS opponents, the Gators have lost seven straight looking for their first such win in 343 days. (That’s 22 days shy of a calendar year for those who did not major in math.)

Florida will need to achieve such a victory short-handed with six defenders and three wide receivers missing from action. It will also continue alternating quarterbacks with redshirt senior Graham Mertz set to start and freshman DJ Lagway getting snaps early in each half before Napier decides on a rotation over the duration of the contests. It did not work out swimmingly for the Gators last week, so there’s no telling how it will go on the second try.

Saturday will be an inflection point for Napier and the program. With a victory, perhaps Florida will maintain its leadership until a later date this season. A loss could send the Gators looking for yet another head coach entering the first of two off weeks this season.

What will go down Saturday afternoon? Let’s find out.

Tale of the tape

Injuries & absences

Active (1): TE Keon Zipperer
Out (4): S Asa Turner (lower body), WR Ja’Quavion Fraziars, CB Ja’Keem Jackson (hamstring), DB Aaron Gates
Out indefinitely (2): WR Eugene Wilson III (knee surgery), DL Joey Slackman (knee surgery)
Out for season (2): WR Kahleil Jackson (knee), DL Jamari Lyons (ankle)

Where to watch Florida vs. Mississippi Stae

Date: Saturday, Sept. 21 | Time: Noon ET
Location: Davis Wade Stadium — Starkville, Mississippi [61,337]

TV: ESPN (Dave Pasch, Dusty Dvoracek, Taylor McGregor)
Live stream: ESPN+ | SiriusXM: 374 | Radio: WRUF, TuneIn
Live updates: @OnlyGators on Twitter

Game notes

» Florida is 34-19-2 all-time against Mississippi State, though it is 5-7 in Starkville with consecutive wins in 2009 and 2018.
» The Gators have lost seven straight games to FBS / Power Four opponents. They have allowed 24+ points in each of those games
» UF is 10-6 at home, 2-7 on the road and 0-3 in neutral-site games under Napier.
» The Gators under Napier are 11-2 when leading after the third quarter, 10-3 when leading at halftime and 10-4 when rushing for at least 150 yards. However, UF is 3-11 under Napier when opponents score first, 1-9 when scoring less than 21 points, 4-16 when allowing 21+ points, 1-14 when tied or trailing after the third quarter and 2-11 when being outrushed.
» Florida is 2-11 against AP Top 25 teams under Napier, 1-6 over the last two seasons. That drought extends to 8-19 against ranked opponents (2-7 vs. top five teams, 5-11 vs. top 10 teams) since 2018. In that same span, UF is 38-13 against unranked opponents.
» The Gators have scored in 451 consecutive games, an NCAA record.

Prediction and analysis

Spread: Florida -6 | O/U: 58.5

This will likely be the largest spread the Gators take into a game for the remainder of the season, and it makes sense given the Bulldogs were blasted at home by Toledo last week. The question is whether a lackluster Florida team — that is also severely short-handed missing three wide receivers, three defensive backs and three defensive linemen — can not just beat Mississippi State on the road but do so by margin. It’s nearly an impossible call.

Unless you are affiliated with either university — or someone who always turns their head during pileups on the side of the road — this game is not for you. And yet, the Gators do have a clear and substantial talent advantage in this contest against a Bulldogs front seven that might be the worst in the SEC. That should open up the struggling run game allowing redshirt senior Montrell Johnson Jr. to finally break out this campaign.

Florida’s secondary is abhorrent, and Mississippi State has seen success in the passing game, but that was against lesser competition. UF should, theoretically, be tighter on the back end with the reserves getting an additional week of practice to work together.

This is another game that should not be touched. However, the Gators do have the special teams edge, and their backs are truly against the wall under Napier. If the players care at all about their coach, they will do everything they can to not only win the game but be energized from the opening kickoff. Let’s slide below the total on this one.

2024 records: 0-3 ATS, 3-0 O/U

Odds & ends

» Uniforms: Florida will wear traditional blue jerseys, white pants and orange helmets for the third of six times this season, despite playing on the road.