Florida vs. Ole Miss prediction, pick, preview: Where to watch, TV channel, game time, odds, spread

Image Credit: Michael Nash

While the Florida Gators’ immensely difficult 2024 schedule does not ease up Saturday, the program does get a second straight game inside the friendly Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. The Gators will be looking for The Swamp to come alive again and aid the program toward a second consecutive upset when the seventh top 25 opponent of the season comes to town, the No. 9 Ole Miss Rebels.

Florida broke its winless streak against such opponents last week and looks Saturday to knock Ole Miss out of College Football Playoff contention. UF held halftime leads against then-No. 8 Tennessee and then-No. 2 Georgia before losing its starting quarterback in both contests. Conversely, the Rebels have only played two ranked opponents this season with a 1-1 record in those contests.

Despite Florida and Ole Miss not playing regularly, Rebels head coach Lane Kiffin coming to town as many fans’ preference to eventually replace Gators head coach Billy Napier adds an interesting element to this matchup. As does the return of Princely Umanmielen, who transferred out this offseason and did not have the best stuff to say about UF.

It will be incumbent upon Florida freshman quarterback DJ Lagway to again be the straw that stirs the drink for his squad. Lagway and senior wide receiver Elijhah Badger bounced back in a major way last week against LSU after missing the Texas game. While the Gators will still be down numerous starters, their repetitive connection was a significant boost to the team.

Bowl eligibility is also on the line for Florida, as is the possibility to finish 7-5 if it wins out. Unlike 2023, when the Gators lost their final five games, they have a chance to wrap up 2024 with three consecutive victories, including two over ranked opponents.

What will go down Saturday afternoon? Let’s find out.

Don’t miss our Florida Football Friday Final covering thoughts from Napier and where UF stands entering this game.

Tale of the tape

	Florida Gators	No. 9 Ole Miss Rebels
Head coach	Billy Napier	Lane Kiffin
Record	5-5 (3-4)	6-3 (4-2)
Conference	SEC	SEC

Injuries & absences

Out (6): OL Roderick Kearney, LB Grayson Howard, CB Devin Moore, DB Asa Turner (knee), CB Ja’Keem Jackson, OL Devon Manuel
Out for season (6): WR Eugene Wilson III (hip), RB Treyaun Webb (leg), CB Jason Marshall Jr. (shoulder), QB Graham Mertz (knee), WR Kahleil Jackson (knee), DL Jamari Lyons (ankle)

Where to watch Florida vs. LSU

Date: Saturday, Nov. 23 | Time: 12 p.m. ET
Location: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium — Gainesville, Florida [88,548]

TV: ABC (Bob Wischusen, Greg McElroy, Molly McGrath)
Live stream: ESPN+ | SiriusXM: 106/190 | Radio: WRUF, TuneIn
Live updates: @OnlyGators on Twitter

Game notes

» Florida is tied 12-12-1 all-time with Ole Miss with the road team leading the series at each stadium.
» The Gators are hosting the Rebels for the first time since 2015 having won two straight, three of four and 11 of the last 16 meetings since 1964.
» Florida’s defense has forced turnovers in nine of 10 games this season with multiple takeaways in three straight contests for the first time under Napier.
» UF is 13-6 at home, 3-9 on the road and 0-4 in neutral-site games under Napier (3-13 away from home). Dating back to the prior regime, Florida is on a 3-19 drought away from The Swamp with a 3-14 mark in its last 17 true road games.
» The Gators under Napier are 10-0 when allowing 20 points or fewer, 14-2 when leading after the third quarter, 13-5 when leading at halftime, 13-6 when scoring first and 12-5 when rushing for at least 150 yards. However, UF is 3-14 under Napier when opponents score first, 1-12 when scoring less than 21 points, 5-19 when allowing 21+ points, 2-17 when tied or trailing after the third quarter and 4-13 when being outrushed.
» Florida is now 3-14 against AP Top 25 teams under Napier, 2-9 over the last two seasons and 1-5 this season. That drought extends to 9-22 against ranked opponents (2-9 vs. top five teams, 5-12 vs. top 10 teams) since 2018. In that same span, UF is 40-13 against unranked opponents.
» The Gators have scored in 458 consecutive games, an NCAA record.

Prediction and analysis

Spread: Florida +13 | O/U: 55

This is a lot of points for a Florida team that, when healthy, has played up to its competition since the first off week. The Gators are 6-0 against the spread with a scholarship quarterback behind center dating back to the Mississippi State game. Ole Miss will be the second-best defense (statistically, ranked No. 5) that Florida has faced this season (Texas, No. 4), though it has stood up to similarly tough units to the point that it led at halftime and may have won if not for injuries at Tennessee (No. 8) and against Georgia (No. 16).

The Gators are far more limited from a roster standpoint. They will be without 12 players, including 10 starters, against a Rebels team missing only four players. That said, they have been the walking wounded all year with plenty of backups getting experience.

What also stands out is Ole Miss’ immense scheduling advantage. It is coming off a late-season bye, while UF is playing its fourth straight game against a top 25 opponent. Meanwhile, while Florida is hosting the game, temperatures are down for a noon kickoff that negates the evening advantage The Swamp can often give the program.

Given Lagway’s quick-strike ability and the defensive proficiency the Gators have put on film when the team has some semblance of offense, it’s far better to have nearly two touchdowns on your side with Florida than trying to win by margin. It’s certainly possible that the Rebels win going away given they beat Georgia by 18 and Arkansas by 32 in their last two games, but they also lost to LSU and Kentucky this season. It’s worth siding with the over for those reasons.

2024 records: 6-3-1 ATS, 6-4 O/U

Odds & ends

» Uniforms: Florida will wear traditional blue jerseys, white pants and orange helmets for the fifth and final time this season.

Senior Day

The Gators did not release a full list of senior who will be walking Saturday, but here are some of the most notable names who will be stepping on Florida Field for the final time: QB Graham Mertz, RB Montrell Johnson Jr., CB Jason Marshall Jr., WR Elijhah Badger, LB Derek Wingo, WR Chimere Dike, P Jeremy Crawshaw, DL Cam Jackson, WR Ja’Quavion Fraziars, OL Brandon Crenshaw-Dickson, DB DJ Douglas, EDGE Ja’Markis Weston, DB Trikweze Bridges, DL Joey Slackman.