Florida vs. Texas A&M prediction, pick, preview: Where to watch, TV channel, game time, odds, spread

Football

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Image Credit: Michael Nash

The Florida Gators made the most of their second chance at making a first impression last week, but a totally different animal visits Ben Hill Griffin on Saturday when the Texas A&M Aggies come to town with a similar 1-1 record and a head coach looking to put a stamp on his first season at the helm. Meanwhile, Florida is hoping to prove it can do more than beat up on FCS opponents as it tries to create some momentum through the nation’s most difficult schedule.

The story of the day is the quarterback position for the Gators. Redshirt senior Graham Mertz will return to his starting role with freshman DJ Lagway set to play scheduled individual plays and entire possessions in the contest. How that will work remains to be seen, but both players took first-team snaps this week, and it was clear seven days ago that Lagway adds an element to the offense Mertz cannot provide no matter how hard he might try.

The QB questions are not one-sided, however, as Texas A&M starter Conner Weigman is reportedly a “legitimate game-time decision” ahead of kickoff. Florida will certainly anticipate Weigman playing; if not, it would likely be Jaylen Henderson, who completed 68% of his passes for 715 yards, six touchdowns and two interceptions as a reserve last season.

Elsewhere, the Gators will be down two key defenders in the secondary (possibly three), though they do get some reinforcements on the back end. Sophomore wide receiver Eugene Wilson III is ultimately expected to be active, and UF absolutely needs his speed and athleticism in order to move the ball against what should be a stout — and immensely familiar, given talent and coaching — defense.

Saturday undoubtedly marks a tipping point game for Florida head coach Billy Napier. With a victory, the Gators might actually be able to turn the tide on the season and prove capable of picking up a bunch of wins over the first half of the season. Lose a second straight to a capable opponent at home through the “easier” part of the schedule, and the writing on the wall may be marked in Sharpie.

What will go down Saturday afternoon in The Swamp? Let’s find out.

Tale of the tape

Injuries & absences

Active (3): QB Graham Mertz (concussion protocol), DB Sharif Denson, DB Bryce Thornton
Questionable (4): WR Eugene Wilson III, EDGE T.J. Searcy, CB Devin Moore, WR Andy Jean
Out (4): S Asa Turner (lower body), WR Ja’Quavion Fraziars, CB Ja’Keem Jackson (hamstring), TE Keon Zipperer
Out for season (2): WR Kahleil Jackson (knee), DL Jamari Lyons (ankle)

Where to watch Florida vs. Texas A&M

Date: Saturday, Sept. 14 | Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
Location: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium — Gainesville, Florida [88,548]

TV: ABC (Joe Tessitore, Jesse Palmer, Katie George)
Live stream: ESPN+ | SiriusXM: 374 | Radio: WRUF, TuneIn
Live updates: @OnlyGators on Twitter

Game notes

» Florida and Texas A&M are 3-3 all-time, 2-2 since TAMU joined the SEC and 1-1 in The Swamp. UF won the last meeting 41-24 on the road in 2022. The teams have not played on Florida Field since 2017.
» The Gators saw an NCAA-best 34-game winning streak in home openers — that dated back to 1990 — get snapped two weeks ago in The Swamp.
» Florida opened three straight seasons against ranked opponents for the first time in program history.
» The Gators have lost three straight games in The Swamp to Power Four competition.
» UF is 10-5 at home, 2-7 on the road and 0-3 in neutral-site games under Napier.
» The Gators under Napier are 11-2 when leading after the third quarter, 10-3 when leading at halftime and 10-4 when rushing for at least 150 yards. However, UF is 3-10 under Napier when opponents score first, 1-8 when scoring less than 21 points, 4-15 when allowing 21+ points, 1-13 when tied or trailing after the third quarter and 2-10 when being outrushed.
» Florida is 2-11 against AP Top 25 teams under Napier, 1-6 over the last two seasons. That drought extends to 8-19 against ranked opponents (2-7 vs. top five teams, 5-11 vs. top 10 teams) since 2018. In that same span, UF is 38-12 against unranked opponents.
» The Gators have scored in 450 consecutive games, an NCAA record.

Prediction and analysis

Spread: Florida +3.5 | O/U: 45.5

Texas A&M deserves to be favored despite Florida’s home-field advantage, but an unranked team that lost to an overrated Notre Dame squad getting more than a field goal in The Swamp presents too much value on the Gators side. The key for UF will be moving the ball on the ground, which is how it made its bones through the first two seasons under Napier.

So far in 2024, Florida is averaging just 152.5 yards rushing per game, about 80 less than TAMU. Given the defensive front seven is among the Aggies’ strongest units, that task will prove difficult but not impossible. In fact, if the Gators can get it going with more consistency on the ground, everything will get easier for Mertz and Lagway. The roles will similarly be reversed when flipping the field; Florida will be focused on stopping the run and making life difficult for Weigman, who struggled in the opener. Unfortunately or the Gators, their secondary was awful in Week 1 missing at least two starters now in Week 3.

This is truly a make-or-break game for Florida, and if Napier has any future as the team’s coach, the Gators have no choice but to win this one. Even if not, it should be close enough to fall within the number. The total having come down below the key number of 47 creates a play on the over.

2024 records: 0-2 ATS, 2-0 O/U

Odds & ends

» Uniforms: Florida will wear traditional blue jerseys, white pants and orange helmets for the second of six times this season.
» Mr. Two-Bits: Former Gators star running back Emmitt Smith will be honored ahead of the game. His son, E.J. Smith, is a backup running back for the Aggies.