Florida vs. UCF prediction, pick, preview: Where to watch, TV channel, game time, odds, spread

Football

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Image Credit: Michael Nash

The Florida Gators enter Week 6 fresh from the off week hoping they have found some answers in what is almost certainly the final stretch for head coach Billy Napier to prove he belongs in charge of the program. Enter the UCF Knights coming off their first loss of the season, a somewhat-unexpected home shellacking. The newest Sunshine State member of the Power Four, UFC does not only have plenty to prove, it is focused on winning a second straight meeting against Florida as the Gators are attempting to return to relevance after a difficult few seasons.

Florida is once again expected to be short handed, though the specifics are unknown as Napier released neither an injury report nor depth chart during the week as he is not required to do so entering nonconference games. Sophomore wide receiver Eugene Wilson III looks to be back with the Gators offense in need of as many playmakers as they can get, but where the need is greatest for Florida is actually on defense where a couple starters will seemingly remain out of action. UF enters with one of the worst Power Four defenses in the nation.

The Gators will continue alternating quarterbacks with redshirt senior Graham Mertz set to start and freshman DJ Lagway getting snaps early in each half before Napier decides on a rotation over the duration of the contests. The rotation worked well in Florida’s last game, but there’s no telling whether that will be sustainable against a more talented team.

Saturday will be the latest inflection point for Napier and the program. With a victory, perhaps UF will maintain its leadership until a later date this season. A loss could send the Gators looking for yet another head coach before the season has even reached its halfway point.

What will go down Saturday night in The Swamp? Let’s find out.

Tale of the tape

Injuries & absences

Questionable (7): WR Eugene Wilson III (knee), S Asa Turner (lower body), WR Ja’Quavion Fraziars (knee), DB Ja’Keem Jackson (undisclosed), DB Aaron Gates (undisclosed), DL Michai Boireau (undisclosed), OL Roderick Kearney (undisclosed)
Doubtful (1): DL Joey Slackman (knee)
Out for season (2): WR Kahleil Jackson (knee), DL Jamari Lyons (ankle)

Where to watch Florida vs. UCF

Date: Saturday, Oct. 5 | Time: 7:45 p.m. ET
Location: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium — Gainesville, Florida [88,548]

TV: SEC Network (Taylor Zarzour, Matt Stinchcomb, Tori Petry)
Live stream: ESPN+ | SiriusXM: 374 | Radio: WRUF, TuneIn
Live updates: @OnlyGators on Twitter

Game notes

» Florida is 2-1 all-time against UCF with a 2-0 record in The Swamp. This is first time the programs will meet since the Knights joined the Big 12. The teams will next meet as scheduled in 2030.
» The Gators two weeks ago won their first game against an FBS / Power Four opponent in nearly a year. Florida has allowed 24+ points in eight straight games against such teams.
» UF is 10-6 at home, 3-7 on the road and 0-3 in neutral-site games under Napier.
» The Gators under Napier are 12-2 when leading after the third quarter, 11-3 when leading at halftime and 11-4 when rushing for at least 150 yards. However, UF is 3-11 under Napier when opponents score first, 1-9 when scoring less than 21 points, 5-16 when allowing 21+ points, 1-14 when tied or trailing after the third quarter and 3-11 when being outrushed.
» Florida is 2-11 against AP Top 25 teams under Napier, 1-6 over the last two seasons. That drought extends to 8-19 against ranked opponents (2-7 vs. top five teams, 5-11 vs. top 10 teams) since 2018. In that same span, UF is 39-13 against unranked opponents.
» The Gators have scored in 452 consecutive games, an NCAA record.

Prediction and analysis

Spread: Florida +1.5 | O/U: 61.5

Many are drawing conclusions about UCF from its performance last week, but it ultimately doesn’t matter much when comparing Florida as an opponent. Colorado is more explosive offensively and has a decent defense (particularly against the run) — 45 yards (30 rushing) better than UF by direct comparison. That is where the Knights will likely make their hay on Saturday night, though the Gators should (theoretically) be more ready than usual given this marks basically the only game all season where UF will have the rest and preparation advantage.

Mertz and Lagway combined to complete 93% of their passes and connect with 10 difference wide receivers against Mississippi State. UCF enters with one of the worst Pour Four pass defenses in the nation, which should create opportunities for Florida. Beyond that, the Gators do have experience playing against KJ Jefferson, and there is an obvious homefield advantage at play in The Swamp — though it is also possible the late sellout came due to the opposition purchasing tickets.

If Florida can avoid turnovers and find any semblance of defense, it should be able to pull away in the second half. The key for the Gators will be starting fast and keeping Jefferson contained so he is forced to pass and not run. Siding with UF is the play; the total is stupid high, but Florida is giving up four touchdowns a game (including the Samford contest) and over simply feels more likely than under given the way the defense is struggling.

2024 records: 1-3 ATS, 3-1 O/U

Odds & ends

» Uniforms: Florida will wear traditional blue jerseys, white pants and orange helmets for the fourth of six times this season,