Florida vs. South Florida prediction, pick, preview: Where to watch, TV channel, game time, odds, spread

Football

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Image Credit: Michael Nash

The Florida Gators ripped apart, squashed together, ate and digested their cupcake with relative ease to open the 2025 season only for much stiffer competition to be waiting in the wings. No. 13 Florida welcomes the South Florida Bulls to Ben Hill Griffin Stadium on Saturday for the programs’ fourth-ever meeting and second since Billy Napier took the reigns of the Gators.

The last UF-USF showdown was none too pleasing of a viewing experience for Florida fans as a middling three-point win led to concerns of what would result in a losing season. This time around, Napier and the Gators enter as a far more confident bunch led by sophomore quarterback DJ Lagway, the program’s highest-rated signal caller with the greatest ceiling in more than a decade. Lagway has plenty to prove himself, however, after a promising freshman campaign was followed by an offseason marked by absence rather than improvement.

Napier explained after the 55-0 victory in Week 1 over LIU that Lagway’s play in the first half was basically his first scrimmage-equivalent work since the 2024 season. Given the way Lagway played — efficiently but unspectacularly — he will need to make major strides in a seven-day span to push Florida’s offense to a substantially better performance against a far more game opponent.

Beyond Lagway, the Gators will be seeking far better play from their offensive line, which at least played a roll in allowing 11 tackles for loss — yes, 11 — against a bottom-rung FCS opponent at home. Perhaps Napier’s playbook will open up and the propensity for horizontal passes will dissipate in Week 2; it may need to, especially given Bulls head coach Alex Golesh’s offensive acumen.

What will go down in The Swamp? Let’s take a look.

Don’t miss Only Gators’ Florida Football Friday Final breakdown ahead of Week 2 kickoff in The Swamp.

Tale of the tape

Injuries & absences

Florida will not release an official injury report until Week 3 vs. LSU. Below is the best compilation Only Gators can provide based on media reports and learned information ahead of kickoff.

Questionable: WR Aidan Mizell, DL Caleb Banks, LB Grayson Howard, DB Ben Hanks III
Doubtful: WR Dallas Wilson, WR Kahleil Jackson, DL LJ McCray, OL Fletcher Westphal
Out: RB Treyaun Webb

Where to watch Florida vs. South Florida

Date: Saturday, Sept. 6 | Time: 4:15 p.m. ET
Location: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium — Gainesville, Florida [88,548]

Stream: SEC Network (Dave Neal, Fozzy Whittaker, Morgan Uber)
SiriusXM: 160/190 | Radio: WRUF, TuneIn
Live updates: @OnlyGators on Twitter

Game notes

» Florida is 3-0 all-time against South Florida, last winning 31-28 in 2022, Napier’s first season.
» UF was ranked in the Preseason AP Top 25 for the first time since 2021, and it currently sits No. 13 in the college football rankings, its highest such placement since 2022.
» Florida’s 13 returning starters are 10th most in the FBS and second most in the SEC.
» The Gators have won five straight games dating back to the 2024 season, tied for the longest active streak in the nation. It is the program’s longest winning streak since 2020 (six), and the close to 2024 marked the first time UF won the final four games of a season since 2019.
» Florida entered the 2025 season with the toughest schedule in the nation for the second straight year. UF’s 2024 slate was the most difficult in college football history at the start of the campaign.
» The Gators defense has forced turnovers in 13 of the last 14 games last season — including an active streak of 11 games — with multiple takeaways in 12 of those contests. It has allowed 17 points or fewer in five straight games, outscoring opponents by an average of 23.6 points in that span.
» UF is the only FBS team that did not commit a penalty in Week 1.
» Florida is 15-6 at home, 4-9 on the road and 1-4 in neutral-site games under Napier (5-13 away from home). Dating back to the prior regime, UF is on a 5-19 drought away from The Swamp with a 4-14 mark in its last 17 true road games.
» The Gators under Napier are 14-0 when allowing 20 points or fewer, 17-2 when leading after the third quarter, 16-5 when leading at halftime, 17-6 when scoring first and 16-5 when rushing for at least 150 yards. However, UF is 3-14 under Napier when opponents score first, 1-12 when scoring less than 21 points, 5-19 when allowing 21+ points, 4-14 when tied or trailing at halftime, 3-17 when tied or trailing after the third quarter and 4-13 when being outrushed.
» Florida is 4-14 against AP Top 25 teams under Napier, 3-9 over the last two seasons (2-5 in 2024). That drought extends to 10-22 against ranked opponents (2-9 vs. top five teams, 6-12 vs. top 10 teams) since 2018. In that same span, UF is 42-13 against unranked opponents.
» The Gators have scored in 462 consecutive games, an NCAA record.

Florida vs. South Florida prediction, analysis

Spread: Florida -18 | O/U: 58

South Florida took advantage of a flawed Boise State in Week 1, and it’s not tough to remember that USF had a trailed just 14-13 against Alabama through three quarters only to get blitzed with 28 points in the fourth quarter in a 42-16 loss. Florida, meanwhile, was largely sleepwalking through a 55-0 win over LIU last week, and it has historically gotten off to slow starts to seasons under Napier. Consider last season’s 24-13 win over UCF as a comparative contest given the Knights’ talent in that game was somewhat similar to what the Bulls bring into The Swamp in Year 2 under Golesh.

USF should be expected to attempt a ball-control offense with sustained drives limiting Florida’s scoring opportunities. That will be difficult given the strength of the Gators defense — especially up front, while the secondary remains a bit more of a question mark being tested for the first time with new coaches leading the charge. The question in this game, though, is how Florida’s offense will play after Lagway & Co. got off to a rough start against a team it should have annihilated in the first half. Lagway averaging 6.7 yards per completion with 120 total yards against LIU makes it tough to project a massive improvement just seven days later. The Gators could absolutely win this in a blowout, easily cover and walk into Week 3 feeling themselves, but after last week’s showing, the leans have to be taking the points and the under.

2025 record: 0-1 ATS, 1-0 O/U
2024 records: 9-3-1 ATS (.750), 8-5 O/U (.615)

Odds & ends

» Uniforms: Florida will wear traditional blue jerseys, orange pants and orange helmets for the first and only time this season.
» Streak is on: The USF game marks the 14th straight home sell out for the Gators dating back to 2023.