Florida vs. Texas prediction, pick, preview: Where to watch, TV channel, game time, odds, spread

Football

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Image Credit: Michael Nash

The 2025 college football season is not getting any easier for the Florida Gators, which at 1-3 with no wins against FBS opponents have their collective back up against the wall ahead of Saturday’s showdown with a third straight top 10 team, the No. 9 Texas Longhorns. While the campaign has not gotten off to an ideal start for Texas, either, there’s no question that the teams are coming out of their off weeks with different goals in mind.

The Gators are seeking a respectable bounce back from a disastrous start for the second straight season under head coach Billy Napier, who continues in Year 4 seemingly not learning any lessons from his mistakes the prior three campaigns. The Longhorns, meanwhile, are looking to prove that their slow start has been more an indication they are finding a groove and less that they’re not College Football Playoff caliber as many are attempting to indicate.

Florida was always schedule to have an off week prior to this game, while Texas went out of its way to move a contest that way UF did not have any semblance of an upper hand. Considering the Gators have the nation’s toughest schedule for the second straight season – and a disparity in circumstance for more games than they have an advantage – it’s unlikely the ‘Horns actually needed to do this to find success at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, Florida.

Nonetheless, that is where these teams stand entering Week 6. Both UF and UT have been fueled by defense this season, but the Gators offense has been a far more significant failure, scoring a combined 33 points over the last three games, losing each contest despite holding respective opponents to 18, 20 and 26 points. Napier confirmed during the off week that there would be no changes to his play calling responsibilities despite his dual role remaining the type of failure smarter coaches have pulled themselves away from over the last few years. Napier (incorrectly) believes his play calling is why he’s had success as a coach and therefore refuses to give up what got him to the big show of the SEC.

Florida is already off to its worst start in nearly four decades and now has a chance to match that pitiful 1986 season by starting 1-4. Conversely, the Gators could surprise by defeating a top 10 opponent as an unranked team and turns their season around. After all, The Swamp is The Swamp and Florida did pull off multiple upsets over ranked teams to conclude the 2024 season. It just feels like this is a team not as capable of those highs despite the immense expectations placed on sophomore quarterback DJ Lagway.

What will go down Saturday afternoon in The Swamp? Let’s take a look with an extended game day preview wrapping up the last two weeks.

What happened while off?

Along with the Gators themselves, Only Gators took the last two weeks off as a means of recharging – something never done in the 16-year history of this website. As such, our normal content selection, including takeaways from Napier’s press conferences and Florida Football Friday Final were not produced. Instead, OG has compiled these notes from the week’s availabilities and sources close to the program.

» Napier said Florida spent the last two weeks focused on 11-on-11 work to catch Lagway up on his missed offseason activities. He claimed Lagway had a great practice last Thursday, and sources told OG it was much of the same this Thursday. Lagway’s side won both times.

» Because QB is a feedback-driven position that requires physical, mental and emotional practice, Napier believes the extra time has helped Lagway get closer to where he needs to be.

» Lagway said he feels like he’s getting up to speed and steadily improved through the last two weeks. He cited his pocket awareness, pocket movement and focus on finishing his throws as areas where he’s taken steps to move closer to his standard.

» Napier correctly pointed out that the Gators too frequently being in long-yardage situations — often due to penalties (editor’s note: but also failed execution and poor play calling) — has hampered the offense’s ability to execute.

» Napier remains convicted about calling plays: “Well, it’s Year 8 for me, and I think that’s the way we’ve done it. And I think it helped us get here. … There’s a lot of guys that are still doing it, too. … Each year, you’re evaluating what is best for the team, for the staff. Certainly, with who we have coming back, the quarterback, in particular, is a huge piece of that puzzle.” (Editor’s note: While Napier’s point about Lagway potentially wanting him to call plays might pass muster, the whole “that’s the way we’ve done it” is horrible reasoning for continuing to do something that’s not working.)

» Lagway said he loves Napier’s system, and it all comes down to execution.

» Lagway laughed at the contention that being in a walking boot for a couple days suggested he was considering opting out of the season and transferring. He had bruised his foot in practice the prior week, and it was worn just for precautionary reasons.

» Freshman wide receiver Dallas Wilson will make his Florida debut vs. Texas. Sources told OG he has not lost a step in practice and continued to flash as he did in the offseason, though he is working his way back into the mental aspect of the game. Redshirt sophomore WR Aidan Mizell is expected to play, too.

» Redshirt sophomore cornerback Cormani McClain has “evolved” so much as a person and teammate that he has not had a single “6 a.m.” (punishment) this year, Napier said. He attributed that growth to McClain, simply, becoming an adult and all that goes along with it, including how he presents himself and communicates to his teammates and authority figures.

» Lagway believes the Gators are a spark away from setting ablaze.

» The Gators lost not one but two starting defensive backs as junior cornerback Dijon Johnson (knee) and redshirt sophomore Aaron Gates (shoulder) underwent surgery. While Johnson is out for the season, Gates will attempt to come back later in the campaign – though that would only make sense if Florida is playing for something. Junior Sharif Denson and freshman Lagonza Hayward will see additional opportunities.

» UF will be down four starters and a couple primary backups, including redshirt senior running back Ja’Kobi Jackson, who was a surprise popping up on the injury report. With redshirt sophomore Treyaun Webb not having played this season, expect a heavy dose of sophomore Jadan Baugh with a variety of other players getting sporadic touches.

Florida vs. Texas: Tale of the tape

Injuries & absences

Probable (4): WR Dallas Wilson, WR Aidan Mizell, DL George Gumbs Jr., DL Michai Boireau
Questionable (5): WR Muizz Tounkara, OL Fletcher Westphal, WR Kahleil Jackson, DB Jamroc Grimsley, DB Michael Caraway
Out (5): RB Ja’Kobi Jackson, DB Aaron Gates, DL Caleb Banks, DL LJ McCray, RB Treyaun Webb
Out for season (1): CB Dijon Johnson

Where to watch Florida vs. Texas

Date: Saturday, Oct. 4 | Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
Location: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium — Gainesville, Florida [88,548]

TV: ESPN (Bob Wischusen, Louis Riddick, Kris Budden)
Stream: ESPN app
SiriusXM: 145 | Radio: WRUF, TuneIn
Live updates: @OnlyGators on Twitter

Florida vs. Texas game notes

» Florida and Texas are meeting for the second straight season after not playing across the prior 83 years dating back to 1940. UF is 0-3-1 in those four meetings.
» The Gators are looking for their first top 10 victory in 11 months when Florida beat Ole Miss as an unranked team. UF is 27-27-2 all-time in The Swamp against top 10 teams, 7-3 since 2012.
» Florida has not gone 1-3 or worse through the first four games of a season in 39 years (1986).
» The Gators’ 13 returning starters were the 10th most in the FBS and second most in the SEC.
» Florida entered the 2025 season with the toughest schedule in the nation for the second straight year. UF’s 2024 slate was the most difficult in college football history at the start of the campaign.
» The Gators defense has forced turnovers in 14 of 16 games with multiple takeaways in 12 of those contests. A 12-game takeaway streak came to an end in Week 4.
» Florida had allowed 20 points or fewer in seven straight games before giving up 26 its last time out. The last team to score more than four touchdowns against UF was Texas in 2024. The Gators were 14-0 under Napier when allowing 20 points or fewer before losing back to back games in Weeks 2-3. UF now stands 14-2 under Napier in that situation.
» The Gators have only allowed five touchdowns in four games but stand at 1-3 on the season.
» After UF stood as the only FBS team that did not commit a penalty in Week 1, it has committed 21 miscues over the last three games.
» Florida is 16-6 at home, 4-11 on the road and 1-4 in neutral-site games under Napier (5-15 away from home). Dating back to the prior regime, UF is on a 6-2 drought away from The Swamp with a 4-16 mark in its last 20 true road games.
» The Gators under Napier are 17-2 when leading after the third quarter, 16-6 when leading at halftime, 17-8 when scoring first and 16-5 when rushing for at least 150 yards. However, UF is 3-15 under Napier when opponents score first, 1-15 when scoring less than 21 points, 5-20 when allowing 21+ points, 4-16 when tied or trailing at halftime, 3-20 when tied or trailing after the third quarter and 4-15 when being outrushed.
» Florida is 4-16 against AP Top 25 teams under Napier, 3-11 over the last three seasons. That drought extends to 10-24 against ranked opponents (2-11 vs. top five teams, 6-14 vs. top 10 teams) since 2018. In that same span, UF is 42-14 against unranked opponents.
» The Gators have scored in 465 consecutive games, an NCAA record.

Florida vs. Texas prediction, analysis

Spread: Florida +5.5 | O/U: 42.5

This line has come down significantly from its peak of a full touchdown, which is a bit surprising considering Texas has far more momentum entering the game. Perhaps it is the way Florida played coming out of its off week last season that has bettors believing the Gators could pull out a surprise and take down the ‘Horns. Perhaps it is the idea that Lagway, who is supposedly healthy, now has the equivalent of a full fall camp of practice under his belt, making this his de facto Week 1. Even if that’s the case, Lagway would be playing that game against one of the nation’s top defenses and an opposing quarterback in Arch Manning equally motivated to prove his slow start is not an indication of his true talent.

When it comes to the Gators under Napier, games always need to be approached from the standpoint: “I’ll believe it when I see it.” That was the case in 2024 when the win over Ole Miss proved Florida was for real down the stretch, and it is the case in 2025 considering how terribly UF has started the season offensively. It might all come together Saturday in The Swamp … and it might be exactly the same as it was the prior four weeks and majority of the last three-plus years.

The visitors need to be the play with the line under a touchdown, and while the low total is appropriate given the teams’ defensive prowess, it’s particularly light coming out of an off week, especially for a coach like Sarkisian who at least leads a modern unit. It’s quite possible the Gators get steamrolled, but more likely is the total goes over the number.

2025 record: 3-1 ATS, 3-1 O/U

Odds & ends

» Uniforms: Florida will wear its traditional home look of blue jerseys, white pants and orange helmets.