Florida vs. LIU prediction, pick, preview: Where to watch, TV channel, game time, odds, spread

Football

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Image Credit: Michael Nash

The Florida Gators open Year 4 under head coach Billy Napier with raised hope despite once again facing the nation’s toughest schedule. Napier has compiled a team more talented than any of the three that have come before it with the best group of wide receivers that will step foot on Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in 15 years and a potential next great quarterback in a long line of them that have worn orange & blue.

Florida opens the 2025 season Saturday night when it hosts the Long Island Sharks of the FCS in The Swamp, a matchup so lopsided that it did not even have a spread set until 24 hours before kickoff. There’s no doubt the Gators will open the campaign with a “1” in the win column (after snapping a 33-year streak of doing so last year), but there’s plenty that remains unknown before kickoff.

Will sophomore quarterback DJ Lagway show the improvement necessary to deliver on his Heisman Trophy hype despite spending the vast majority of the offseason recovering from a variety of injuries? Will the defense continue its end-of-2024 dominance despite turning over three coaches for the second straight year? Will the Gators as a whole exceed expectations despite the SEC working them over from a scheduling standpoint?

Answers to those questions remain to be determined, and while Saturday night will serve as Florida’s first opportunity to flash its skill, no proof will be garnered from its performance.

What will go down in The Swamp? Let’s take a look.

Don’t miss our Florida Football Friday Final covering rising hopes and lingering questions around the program ahead of Week 1 kickoff in The Swamp.

Tale of the tape

Injuries & absences

Florida will not release an official injury report until Week 3 vs. LSU. Below is the best compilation Only Gators can provide based on media reports and learned information ahead of kickoff.

Active: QB DJ Lagway
Probable: WR Eugene Wilson III
Questionable: WR Aidan Mizell, DL Caleb Banks, LB Grayson Howard
Doubtful: WR Dallas Wilson, WR Kahleil Jackson, DL LJ McCray
Out: RB Treyaun Webb

Where to watch Florida vs. LIU

Date: Saturday, Aug. 30 | Time: 7 p.m. ET
Location: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium — Gainesville, Florida [88,548]

Stream: ESPN+/SECN+ (Jay Alter, Rocky Boiman, Stephanie Otey)
SiriusXM: 119/191 | Radio: WRUF, TuneIn
Live updates: @OnlyGators on Twitter

Game notes

» Florida and LIU have never met on the gridiron. UF is playing an NEC team for the second time ever and first time since 1950 (27-14 vs. Duquesne). It is 24-1 all-time against FCS opponents.
» The Gators are 88-30 all-time in season openers (71-8 in Gainesville) after seeing its prior NCAA record 33-game winning streak in such games snapped last season.
» UF was ranked in the Preseason AP Top 25 for the first time since 2021.
» Florida’s 13 returning starters are 10th most in the FBS and second most in the SEC.
» The Gators concluded the 2024 season on a four-game winning streak, the third-longest active nationally. It is the program’s longest winning streak since 2020 (six) and the first time it won the final four games of a season since 2019.
» Florida enters the 2025 season with the toughest schedule in the nation for the second straight year. UF’s 2024 slate was the most difficult in college football history at the start of the campaign.
» The Gators defense forced turnovers in 12 of 13 games last season — including a streak of 10 straight games to end the season — with multiple takeaways in 11 of those contests.
» Florida is 14-6 at home, 4-9 on the road and 1-4 in neutral-site games under Napier (5-13 away from home). Dating back to the prior regime, UF is on a 5-19 drought away from The Swamp with a 4-14 mark in its last 17 true road games.
» The Gators under Napier are 13-0 when allowing 20 points or fewer, 16-2 when leading after the third quarter, 15-5 when leading at halftime, 16-6 when scoring first and 15-5 when rushing for at least 150 yards. However, UF is 3-14 under Napier when opponents score first, 1-12 when scoring less than 21 points, 5-19 when allowing 21+ points, 4-14 when tied or trailing at halftime, 3-17 when tied or trailing after the third quarter and 4-13 when being outrushed.
» Florida is 4-14 against AP Top 25 teams under Napier, 3-9 over the last two seasons (2-5 in 2024). That drought extends to 10-22 against ranked opponents (2-9 vs. top five teams, 6-12 vs. top 10 teams) since 2018. In that same span, UF is 41-13 against unranked opponents.
» The Gators have scored in 461 consecutive games, an NCAA record.

Florida vs. LIU prediction, analysis

Spread: Florida -45.5 | O/U: 55.5

This game was off the board most of the week, but some sportsbooks threw a line out Friday — and what a line. Florida is projected to beat LIU 56-10 based on this spread, which would be feasible with Lagway and the starters playing the entire first half. However, while Lagway is starting the game, it remains unknown how long he will actually play. Equivalent results for the Gators under Napier the last three seasons are 45-7, 49-7, 52-17, though the Sharks are thinner and less talented than those respective opponents. Even beyond Lagway, there’s not much reason for Napier to play his starters for any length of time, and LIU does not match up at any position where anything but a garbage-time touchdown can be expected. No one should be on this game, but leaning on history, the plays would be the points and the under.

2024 records: 9-3-1 ATS (.750), 8-5 O/U (.615)

Odds & ends

» Uniforms: Florida will wear traditional blue jerseys, white pants and orange helmets for the first of four games this season. No other uniform combination will be worn more than twice.
» Honorary Mr. Two-Bits: Ahmad Black will don the shirt and tie ahead of the game.
» Streak is on: The LIU game marks the 13th straight home sell out for the Gators dating back to 2023.