Florida vs. Texas Tech, 2025 NCAA Tournament preview: Prediction, pick, where to watch, odds

Image Credit: Michael Nash

Florida Gators basketball continues its Final Four pursuit entering the fourth round of the 2025 NCAA Tournament holding the No. 1 seed in the West Region. Listed as the fourth overall seed in the field, Florida advanced past the No. 16-seed Norfolk State Spartans in the first round, the No. 8-seed UConn Huskies in the second round (getting a measure of revenge for a loss in the 2014 Final Four) and the No. 4-seed Maryland Terrapins in the Sweet 16.

Head coach Todd Golden now has the Gators’ eyes are firmly focused advancing past the No. 3-seed Texas Tech Red Raiders in the Elite Eight. Florida is 5-4 all-time in regional finals with eyes on playing in the Final Four for the first time since 2014. That would mark the sixth such appearance in program history along with the possibility of a fourth opportunity to play for a national championship.

Saturday marks just the fourth all-time meeting between these programs on the hardwood.

Senior point guard Walter Clayton Jr., one of the nation’s top players as an unanimous All-America first-team selection, led Florida into San Francisco fronting a triumvirate of star backcourt standouts that have deftly alternated standing out as team leaders throughout the season. Guards senior Will Richard and redshirt senior Alijah Martin join Clayton as Florida’s three leading scorers combining to account for 45.8 points per game.

Sophomore forward Alex Condon finds himself in the midst of a breakout campaign that has NBA scouts frothing at the mouth about his potential at the next level. He is averaging 10.9 points and 7.7 rebounds despite not yet having completely escaped a mini slump. Classmate and positionmate Thomas Haugh, who stands alongside Condon averaging 9.5 points and 6.0 boards, has filled in some of those gaps nicely.

Not to be overlooked are 37-game starting center sophomore Rueben Chinyelu (6.2 points, 6.5 rebounds), primary reserve junior G Denzel Aberdeen (8.0 points, 1.7 assists) and junior C Micah Handlogten, who has played the last 13 games after sitting out the prior 24 before unselfishly deciding that helping the Gators compete for a national championship was more important than preserving a season of collegiate eligibility.

The pieces remain in place for Florida. The Gator Boys remain hot. March Madness remains rolling along with two tremendous teams from the nation’s best conferences going head-to-head.

What will go down Saturday as the Gators continue their sojourn in the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Let’s find out.

Tale of the tape

	(1) Florida Gators	(3) Texas Tech Red Raiders
Head coach	Todd Golden	Grant McCasland
Record	33-4	28-8
Conference	SEC	Big 12

Injuries & absences

Active: F Alex Condon (ankle)
Questionable: F Sam Alexis (ankle)

Where to watch Florida vs. Texas Tech

Game: 2025 NCAA Tournament | West Region | Final
Date: Saturday, March 29 | Time: 6:09 p.m. ET
Location: Chase Center — San Francisco, California [18,064]

TV: TBS (Kevin Harlan, Dan Bonner, Stan Van Gundy, Lauren Shehadi)
Live stream: March Madness Live | SiriusXM: 202 | Radio: TuneIn
Live updates: @OnlyGators on Twitter

Game notes

» Florida is 2-1 all-time against Texas Tech with the only loss coming in the 2018 NCAA Tournament.
» The Gators are 48-20 all-time in NCAA Tournament play, 17-6 in the first round, 11-6 in the second round, 10-1 in the Sweet 16 and 5-4 in the Elite Eight.
» UF is playing in the Elite Eight for the first time since 2017; it has not advanced to the Final Four since 2014.
» The Gators are a No. 1 seed for the third time in program history holding a 13-1 record in NCAA Tournament play. They have advanced to the Final Four on both prior occasions (2007, 2014).
» Florida is seeking its sixth Final Four appearance (1994, 2000, 2006-07, 2014), fourth national title game appearance (2000, 2006-07) and third national championship (2006-07) in program history.
» UF is rated No. 1 nationally in offensive efficiency. It is one of two teams (Duke) rated among the top 10 in offensive and defensive efficiency.
» Florida won its first conference title since 2014 by capturing the 2025 SEC Tournament championship, its fifth in program history.
» The Gators in 2025 beat a No. 1 team outside of the NCAA Tournament for the first time in program history and actually did so twice, once at home and once away.
» Florida is 9-2 this season against AP Top 25 opponents, 15-12 since Golden took over the program.
» Senior point guard Walter Clayton Jr. has made a 3-pointer in 59 consecutive games, a program record.
» Clayton became the first postseason All-America first-team selection (individual and unanimous) in program history.

» Florida under Golden is 58-9 when leading at halftime (27-0 this season), 67-5 when leading with 5 minutes left (30-0), 54-10 when outrebounding an opponent (27-3), 42-15 when forcing more turnovers (22-1), 51-8 when shooting 45% or better from the field (24-2), 65-7 when outshooting an opponent (29-1), 23-4 when shooting 40% or better from 3-point range (10-0), 60-8 when outshooting an opponent from 3-point range (30-0), 49-16 when four or more players score in double figures (23-2) and 25-3 when five or more players score in double figures (11-0)

Prediction and analysis

Spread: Florida -5.5 | O/U: 155.5

It’s fair to look at both teams as not playing their best basketball entering Saturday’s showdown. The Gators have committed 13 turnovers per game in NCAA Tournament play, their highest average across a three-game stretch since December 2024. The Red Raiders are shooting 24.7% from downtown in NCAA Tournament play, their lowest average across a three-game stretch this season. And yet, the name of the game is “survive and advance,” which both teams have done remarkably well over the last nine days.

In both cases, these glaring flaws are fixable issues — but they might be more fixable for UF. Whereas Texas Tech ranks 214th nationally in turnovers forced per game, Florida enters Saturday ranked seventh in 3-point percentage defense. If a team is going to take down the high-scoring Gators in this tournament, it will almost assuredly need to shoot the 3. That said, the Raiders do stand fifth in adjusted offensive efficiency, according to KenPom.com, so they clearly have other ways of scoring points.

Florida is rightly favored in the game, and while 5.5 or 6.5 may feel like too many points for such a high-powered matchup, the Gators have proven to be spread conquerers time and again this season. They are one of the best cover teams in the nation (24-7 ATS since Nov. 22) and have beaten the odds against teams ranked Nos. 4-6 in KenPom in four of five matchups. Plus, UF appeared to finally find itself in the second half against Maryland after a nearly two-game drought (when it still won both games) beginning around halftime against Norfolk State.

As long as Florida can cut down its turnovers and not give Texas Tech too many extra possessions, its shooting, rebounding and 3-point defense should clear the number on the way into the Final Four. Given the total is the same as it was in the Sweet 16 matchup, topping that mark while playing against an even better offensive team makes sense as the right side.

2024-25 records: 1-2 ATS, 3-0 O/U

Seed total in Elite Eight will be 13, most difficult in #MarchMadness history (12 never achieved).

Last time Elite Eight seed total was 13? 2007 when Florida #Gators played only No. 3 seed (Oregon) and ultimately won the national title.

Saturday: (1) Florida vs. (3) Texas Tech

— OnlyGators.com: Florida Gators news (@onlygators) March 29, 2025

West Region bracket

Sweet 16 || Elite Eight

(1) Florida 87, (4) Maryland 71 || (1) Florida vs. (3) Texas Tech
(3) Texas Tech 85, (10) Arkansas 83

Round 1 || Round 2

(1) Florida 95, (16) Norfolk State 69
(8) UConn 67, (9) Oklahoma 59 || (1) Florida 77, (8) UConn 75

(12) Colorado State 78, (5) Memphis 70 || (4) Maryland 72, (12) Colorado State 71
(4) Maryland 81, (13) Grand Canyon 49

(11) Drake 67, (6) Missouri 57
(3) Texas Tech 82, (14) UNC Wilmington 72 || (3) Texas Tech 77, (11) Drake 64

(10) Arkansas 79, (7) Kansas 72 || (10) Arkansas 75, (2) St. John’s 66
(2) St. John’s 83, (15) Omaha 53