Florida vs. Auburn, 2025 Final Four preview: Prediction, pick, where to watch, game odds, line

Image Credit: Michael Nash

Florida Gators basketball is back in the Final Four. Competing in the national semifinal round of the 2025 NCAA Tournament, a national championship game appearance is now in Florida’s sights for the first time since 2007 as the fourth overall seed in the field continues its run of immense basketball with the stage larger than ever before.

UF advanced past the No. 16-seed Norfolk State Spartans in the first round, the No. 8-seed UConn Huskies in the second round (getting a measure of revenge for a loss in the 2014 Final Four) and the No. 4-seed Maryland Terrapins in the Sweet 16 before escaping the No. 3-seed Texas Tech Red Raiders in the Elite Eight.

Head coach Todd Golden now has the Gators’ eyes firmly focused on raising another trophy as the No. 1 seed in the West Region meets the Auburn Tigers, the No. 1 overall seed out of the East Region, in the Final Four. Florida is 3-2 all-time in national semifinals making its first such appearance 2014. The Gators are now looking for a fourth opportunity to play for a national championship.

Saturday marks the second meeting between Florida and Auburn on the hardwood this season and just the second time UF has ever played an SEC opponent in NCAA Tournament competition. It also features Golden going up against his former mentor, AU head coach Bruce Pearl.

Senior point guard Walter Clayton Jr., one of the nation’s top players as an unanimous All-America first-team selection, led Florida out of San Francisco fronting a triumvirate of star backcourt standouts that have deftly alternated standing out as team leaders throughout the season. Guards senior Will Richard and redshirt senior Alijah Martin join Clayton as Florida’s three leading scorers combining to account for 45.9 points per game.

Sophomore forward Alex Condon finds himself in the midst of a breakout campaign that has NBA scouts frothing at the mouth about his potential at the next level. He is averaging 10.8 points and 7.7 rebounds despite continuing to struggle while dealing with a nagging ankle injury. Classmate and positionmate Thomas Haugh, who stands alongside Condon averaging 9.8 points and 6.1 boards, has stepped up massively to fill in some of those gaps.

Not to be overlooked are 38-game starting center sophomore Rueben Chinyelu (6.1 points, 6.5 rebounds), primary reserve junior G Denzel Aberdeen (7.9 points, 1.9 assists) and junior C Micah Handlogten, who has played the last 14 games after sitting out the prior 24 before unselfishly deciding that helping the Gators compete for a national championship was more important than preserving a season of collegiate eligibility.

The pieces remain in place for Florida. The Gator Boys remain hot. March Madness rolls into the Final Four with two of the nation’s best teams all season going head-to-head.

What will go down Saturday as the Gators continue their sojourn in the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Let’s find out.

Tale of the tape

	(1) Florida Gators	(1) Auburn Tigers
Head coach	Todd Golden	Bruce Pearl
Record	34-4	32-5
Conference	SEC	SEC

Injuries & absences

Questionable: F Sam Alexis (ankle)

Where to watch Florida vs. Auburn

Game: 2025 NCAA Tournament | Final Four
Date: Saturday, April 5 | Time: 6:09 p.m. ET
Location: Alamodome — San Antonio, Texas [68,000]

TV: CBS (Ian Eagle, Bill Raftery, Grant Hill, Tracy Wolfson)
Live stream: March Madness Live | SiriusXM: 84 | Radio: TuneIn
Live updates: @OnlyGators on Twitter

Game notes

» Florida is 84-92 all-time against Auburn, 2-2 under Golden with a 1-0 record this season.
» Saturday marks the second time UF has ever played an SEC team in NCAA Tournament play (South Carolina, 2017).
» The Gators are 49-20 all-time in NCAA Tournament play, 17-6 in the first round, 11-6 in the second round, 10-1 in the Sweet 16 and 6-4 in the Elite Eight and 3-2 in the Final Four.
» UF is playing in the Final Four for the first time since 2014; it has not advanced to the national championship game since 2007.
» The Gators are a No. 1 seed for the third time in program history holding a 14-1 record in NCAA Tournament play. They have advanced to the Final Four on all three occasions (2007, 2014, 2025).
» Florida is making its sixth Final Four appearance (1994, 2000, 2006-07, 2014, 2025) seeking its fourth national title game appearance (2000, 2006-07) and third national championship (2006-07) in program history.
» UF is rated No. 1 nationally in offensive efficiency. It is one of two teams (Duke) rated among the top 10 in offensive and defensive efficiency.
» Florida won its first conference title since 2014 by capturing the 2025 SEC Tournament championship, its fifth in program history.
» The Gators in 2025 beat a No. 1 team outside of the NCAA Tournament for the first time in program history and actually did so twice, once at home and once away.
» Florida is 10-2 this season against AP Top 25 opponents, 16-12 since Golden took over the program.
» Senior point guard Walter Clayton Jr. has made a 3-pointer in 60 consecutive games, a program record.
» Clayton became the first postseason All-America first-team selection (individual and unanimous) in program history.

» Florida under Golden is 59-9 when leading at halftime (28-0 this season), 68-5 when leading with 5 minutes left (31-0), 55-10 when outrebounding an opponent (28-3), 42-15 when forcing more turnovers (22-1), 51-8 when shooting 45% or better from the field (24-2), 66-7 when outshooting an opponent (30-1), 23-4 when shooting 40% or better from 3-point range (10-0), 61-8 when outshooting an opponent from 3-point range (31-0), 34-12 when shooting 75% or better from the free throw line (16-0), 45-15 when winning the bench scoring battle (21-1), 49-16 when four or more players score in double figures (23-2) and 25-3 when five or more players score in double figures (11-0)

Prediction and analysis

Spread: Florida -2.5 | O/U: 159.5

It’s difficult to prognosticate this matchup without remembering what happened earlier in the season, 56 days ago to be exact. The Gators visited the Tigers, led by as many as 21 points in the second half and ultimately won by nine despite Martin (hip) not being available. Johni Broome, arguably considered the best player in Saturday’s game, went 8 of 19 from the floor scoring just 18 points while struggling to get to the free throw line. Conversely, Florida had five players in double figures with Clayton getting whatever he wanted while Condon and Haugh both posted double doubles.

Auburn has run through the NCAA Tournament winning four games by an average of nearly 13 points, but its competition has paled to that of UF, which faced a tougher road as the fourth No. 1 seed. These teams are nevertheless evenly matched ranking basically side by side when it comes to offensive and defensive efficiency. Concerning for the Gators is how they have needed to scratch and claw to win their last two games; however, the Tigers lost three of their last four games against SEC opponents this season — all against teams Florida defeated handily.

The Gators are 21-10 against the spread this season but 1-3 ATS in March Madness. The Tigers have covered three straight but were 0-5 ATS preceding the NCAA Tournament. Both teams are able to score. Where Florida appears to have a true advantage is in the frontcourt with four big men capable of rotating to stay fresh and stay on top of Broome. That combined with Clayton’s immensely clutch nature in second halves should make a difference Saturday night in a high-scoring game with the Gators covering and advancing to the national championship.

2024-25 records: 1-3 ATS, 4-0 O/U

West Region bracket

Sweet 16 || Elite Eight

(1) Florida 87, (4) Maryland 71 || (1) Florida 84, (3) Texas Tech 79
(3) Texas Tech 85, (10) Arkansas 83

Round 1 || Round 2

(1) Florida 95, (16) Norfolk State 69
(8) UConn 67, (9) Oklahoma 59 || (1) Florida 77, (8) UConn 75

(12) Colorado State 78, (5) Memphis 70 || (4) Maryland 72, (12) Colorado State 71
(4) Maryland 81, (13) Grand Canyon 49

(11) Drake 67, (6) Missouri 57
(3) Texas Tech 82, (14) UNC Wilmington 72 || (3) Texas Tech 77, (11) Drake 64

(10) Arkansas 79, (7) Kansas 72 || (10) Arkansas 75, (2) St. John’s 66
(2) St. John’s 83, (15) Omaha 53