Florida vs. Florida State prediction, pick, preview: Where to watch, TV channel, game time, odds, spread

Football

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Image Credit: Michael Nash

A season turned on its head. A coach off the hot seat. A rivalry in the process of being flipped? The Florida Gators hit the road for the first time in three weeks looking to close the 2024 campaign on a high note as they visit the Florida State Seminoles in Tallahassee, Florida, on Saturday night.

A victory in the unfriendly confines of Doak Campbell Stadium would send the Gators to 7-5, a record that was seen as a near-impossible achievement given the way the season started. This after Florida attained bowl eligibility last week having defeated a second consecutive top 25 team for the first time under head coach Billy Napier and first time as a program in 21 years.

What remains Saturday is UF’s greatest in-state rival, an opponent that one year ago looked to have the upper hand on and off the field. The Gators are not only fighting for gridiron supremacy on Saturday but the opportunity to retake the Sunshine State mantle. With a surging recruiting operation and the sudden confidence of a fan base that appeared on the verge of checking out a couple months ago, Florida has an opportunity to flip the script and change its narrative significantly.

It will be incumbent upon Gators freshman quarterback DJ Lagway to again be the straw that stirs the drink for his squad. Lagway has continued his ascension since taking over behind center, and in a battle of two first-year signal callers — for the first time in rivalry history — the pressure is most certainly on his shoulders to deliver.

Unlike 2023, when Florida lost its final five games, it has a chance to wrap up 2024 with three consecutive victories over Power Four opponents for the first time in five years.

What will go down Saturday night? Let’s find out.

Don’t miss our Florida Football Friday Final covering thoughts from Napier and where UF stands entering this game with another starter injured.

Tale of the tape

Injuries & absences

Questionable (3): LB Grayson Howard, OL Damieon George, OL Roderick Kearney
Out (4): CB Devin Moore, DB Asa Turner, CB Ja’Keem Jackson, OL Devon Manuel
Out for season (7): DB Aaron Gates (knee), WR Eugene Wilson III (hip), RB Treyaun Webb (leg), CB Jason Marshall Jr. (shoulder), QB Graham Mertz (knee), WR Kahleil Jackson (knee), DL Jamari Lyons (ankle)

Where to watch Florida vs. Florida State

Date: Saturday, Nov. 30 | Time: 7 p.m. ET
Location: Doak Campbell Stadium — Tallahassee, Florida [79,560]

TV: ESPN2 (Jay Alter, Rocky Boiman, Ashley Stroelein)
Live stream: ESPN+ | SiriusXM: 160/192 | Radio: WRUF, TuneIn
Live updates: @OnlyGators on Twitter

Game notes

» Florida is 37-28-2 all-time against Florida State with a 14-14-1 mark in Tallahassee. UF has lost consecutive games and seven of the last 10 meetings last winning at Doak in 2018.
» The Gators are undefeated against ‘Noles teams that end their seasons with losing records.
» UF’s defense has forced turnovers in 10 of 11 games this season with multiple takeaways in may of those contests, including last week.
» Florida is 14-6 at home, 3-9 on the road and 0-4 in neutral-site games under Napier (3-13 away from home). Dating back to the prior regime, Florida is on a 3-19 drought away from The Swamp with a 3-14 mark in its last 17 true road games.
» The Gators under Napier are 11-0 when allowing 20 points or fewer, 14-2 when leading after the third quarter, 13-5 when leading at halftime, 14-6 when scoring first and 13-5 when rushing for at least 150 yards. However, UF is 3-14 under Napier when opponents score first, 1-12 when scoring less than 21 points, 5-19 when allowing 21+ points, 4-14 when tied or trailing at halftime, 3-17 when tied or trailing after the third quarter and 4-13 when being outrushed.
» Florida is now 4-14 against AP Top 25 teams under Napier, 3-9 over the last two seasons and 2-5 this season. That drought extends to 10-22 against ranked opponents (2-9 vs. top five teams, 6-12 vs. top 10 teams) since 2018. In that same span, UF is 40-13 against unranked opponents.
» The Gators have scored in 459 consecutive games, an NCAA record.

Prediction and analysis

Spread: Florida -14 | O/U: 45.5

Flipping from a two-touchdown home underdog to a two-touchdown road favorite — in a one-week span with both games against Power Four opponents — is quite a turn for a Gators team that had struggled to find success much of the season. But that is indeed where Florida stands now having defeated consecutive top 25 opponents or the first time under Napier (and first time in 21 years) with one game remaining in the 2024 campaign.

On the surface, one has no reason to believe the Gators will cover in this spot. They are clearly playing far better than the ‘Noles, but it’s still a rivalry game, one in which UF has lost consecutive meetings by a TD or more. Here’s the deal with FSU, though: It has been terrible against Power Four teams this season. In fact, it has only beaten one (California) back on Sept. 21. Meetings against top 25 opponents since have all been lost by 16 points, including a 22-point drubbing by Miami and 49-point obliteration by Notre Dame over the last month. Even unranked North Carolina beat Florida State by 24.

What happens Saturday is truly a toss up. Doak is indeed a tough environment at night, and FSU does have talent across its roster. Plus, UF will be significantly shorthanded in the secondary down five starting defensive backs. The question is whether any of that matters. Napier has the Gators so intrinsically motivated right now — and the program has so much momentum both on and off the field — that finishing their story and dominating the rival ‘Noles could be an exclamation point to kick off a bountiful offseason.

So despite better judgment suggesting Florida will win but fall short of the number, the feeling around the game is that it’s a situation where UF will not rest on its laurels and will put the pedal to the metal trying to make a statement against its in-state rival. Given FSU has not scored ore than 16 points against a power four opponent since Aug. 24, the under feels like it’s certainly in play.

2024 records: 7-3-1 ATS, 6-5 O/U

Odds & ends

» Uniforms: Florida will wear traditional white jerseys, white pants and orange helmets for the first and only time this season.