Florida vs. Florida State: Prediction, pick, odds, spread, football game time, watch live stream, TV channel

By OnlyGators.com Staff
November 25, 2022
Florida vs. Florida State: Prediction, pick, odds, spread, football game time, watch live stream, TV channel

Image Credit: Graphic by Michael Nash

Coming off their two most complete games of the campaign, the Florida Gators laid an egg last week, ruining their opportunity to end the regular season with four straight wins and pick up a ton of momentum entering bowl season. Instead, Florida has to bounce back from a significant upset on a short week in a first-time ever Friday night matchup with the rival Florida State Seminoles.

The Gators will be down at least five wide receivers when they visit Doak Campbell Stadium, putting them at an offensive disadvantage even though they have seen their most success this season toting the rock. Sophomore quarterback Anthony Richardson was efficient in spot duty against the ‘Noles last season (5 of 7, 55 yards, touchdown), but he will now be asked to shoulder the load in what might be the final regular-season game of his career in orange and blue.

Meanwhile, head coach Billy Napier faces his last opportunity to win a rivalry game in Year 1 given Florida has already lost to Georgia, Tennessee and LSU. While those are all relatively acceptable and understandable defeats in a vacuum, losses to Kentucky and Vanderbilt cast a different shadow on these Gators. Napier could become the first coach to lead an unranked Florida to a win over a ranked Florida State team since 2004 … or he could become the first to go winless against UF’s primary rivals since Galen Hall in 1987. (Florida did not play Tennessee that season but lost to both Miami and Auburn as well.)

What will go down Saturday afternoon as the Gators visit the ‘Noles? Let’s find out. Don’t miss our Florida football notebook covering Napier’s thoughts entering Rivalry Week.

Tale of the tape

Florida GatorsNo. 16 FSU Seminoles
Head coachBilly NapierMike Norvell

Injuries and absences

Read: Gators’ plans at wide receiver with six players on injury report

Suspension (1): LB Ventrell Miller (targeting, first half)
Questionable (2): WR Ricky Pearsall (lower body), TE Keon Zipperer (lower body)
Out (5): WR Ja’Quavion Fraziars (shoulder), WR Xzavier Henderson (lower body), WR Justin Shorter (lower body), WR Thai Chiaokhiao-Bowman (upper body), WR Marcus Burke (upper body)
Out for season (2): CB Devin Moore (shoulder), LS Marco Ortiz (upper body)

Viewing information

Date: Friday, Nov. 25 | Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Location: Doak Campbell Stadium — Tallahassee, Florida [79,560]

TV: ABC (Anish Shroff, Brock Osweiler, Taylor Mcgregor)
Live stream: ESPN+ | SiriusXM: 133/190 | Radio: WRUF, TuneIn
Live updates: @OnlyGators on Twitter

Game notes

» Florida is 37-26-2 all-time against Florida State with three straight wins in the series. The Gators also lead the Seminoles 14-13-1 all-time in Tallahassee.
» An unranked Florida team has not defeated a ranked FSU team since 2004.
» The Gators are playing their first regular-season game scheduled on a Friday in program history.
» UF has scored 24+ points in nine of 11 games this season.
» Florida is 6-1 this season when rushing for 150+ yards and 5-0 when leading after the third quarter.
» The Gators are second nationally in yards per rush (5.9) and 15th in rushing offense (209.3 yards per game).
» Florida is eighth nationally in turnovers gained (23) and seventh in turnover margin (+10).
» The Gators are 7-13 against ranked opponents (2-5 vs. top five teams, 5-7 vs. top 10 teams) and 32-10 against unranked opponents since 2018. They are 1-3 against AP Top 25 teams this season.
» Florida was the only team in the nation to play three top-20 opponents in the first four weeks of the season. It will face six teams ranked at the time of kickoff and four teams in the current top 16 of the College Football Playoff Rankings.
» UF is one of two FBS teams nationally (Alabama) that has not yet lost to an opponent that finished the season with a losing record since 2004. That is currently in danger depending how Vanderbilt finishes the campaign.
» The Gators have scored in 434 consecutive games, an NCAA record.

Prediction and analysis

Spread: Florida +10 | O/U: 56.5

The Gators and Seminoles enter Friday night’s meeting with drastically different levels of momentum. Florida though it would roll into the rivalry showdown with three straight wins only to do basically everything wrong in an upset loss to Vanderbilt. Florida State continued playing at a torrid place, , blasting Louisiana 49-17 while increasing its scoring average to 43.3 points over its last four games. For a Gators team that has yet to eclipse that number against an FBS opponent this season, defense will be the name of the game.

Unfortunately, Florida has largely struggled on that side of the ball. Its successes recently have come against poor offenses, and when it has given up points, it has largely been due to gifting the opposition short fields. This is a talent level the Gators have not seen since they fell 45-35 to LSU and 42-20 to Georgia consecutively in October. In other words, expect plenty of points to be scored in this game with the total going over.

Despite its recent issues, Florida should be motivated to close strong in a bounce-back performance from last week’s embarrassing defeat. The offense has largely proven to be efficient on the road; even if it is down numerous pass catchers, the running game is where its bread is buttered. Despite depth issues on defense, the Gators are the most talented unit the ‘Noles will face since their last loss, 34-28 at home to Clemson on Oct. 15. So while Florida may not come out on top, look for it to stay within the number.

2022 records: ATS picks 3-8 | O/U picks 7-4

Odds and ends

» Uniforms: Florida will wear white jerseys, white pants and orange helmets for first and only time this season.

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