Florida vs. LSU prediction, pick, preview: Where to watch, TV channel, game time, odds, spread

Image Credit: Michael Nash

While the Florida Gators’ arduous 2024 schedule does not ease up Saturday, it does shift back to Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. The Gators will be playing in the friendly confines of The Swamp for the first time in 28 days when their sixth top 25 opponent of the season comes to town, the No. 22 LSU Tigers.

Florida is 0-5 against such opponents entering Saturday, though the record does not tell the entire story. UF held halftime leads against then-No. 8 Tennessee and then-No. 2 Georgia before losing its starting quarterback in both contests. LSU enters with a 1-3 record against such teams this season, though it is 2-1 on the road overall.

Despite the Gators and Tigers no longer being deemed cross-division rivals — given the departure of divisions from the SEC — they are nevertheless continuing their series this year and again in 2025. Whether they will play regularly beyond that remains to be seen. That means this might be the last time LSU plays on Florida Field for the near future — and it may be the Gators’ best opportunity to end a five-game losing streak to the Bayou Bengals.

Florida gets some reinforcements back to that end with freshman quarterback DJ Lagway and senior wide receiver Elijhah Badger cleared after missing last week’s game. However, there are still questionable tags attacked to another pair of offensive starters, and the Gators will be down four starters along with a primary reserve on defense — four of those unavailable players coming out of the secondary.

Bowl eligibility would become a legitimate possibility with a victory Saturday as Florida looks to buck recent trends of deflating over the second halves of seasons. UF finished 2023 losing its final five games; LSU is the third of four straight ranked opponents it will face before concluding the campaign against Florida State.

What will go down Saturday afternoon? Let’s find out.

Don’t miss our Florida Football Friday Final covering thoughts from Napier and where UF stands entering this game. Plus, take a look at the Lagway being cleared to play just two weeks after his hamstring injury.

Tale of the tape

	Florida Gators	No. 22 LSU Tigers
Head coach	Billy Napier	Brian Kelly
Record	4-5 (2-4)	6-3 (3-2)
Conference	SEC	SEC

Injuries & absences

Off injured list (4): QB DJ Lagway, WR Elijhah Badger, CB Dijon Johnson, OL Dameion George Jr.

Questionable (1): RB Montrell Johnson Jr. (lower body)
Out (5): LB Grayson Howard, CB Devin Moore, DB Asa Turner (knee), CB Ja’Keem Jackson, OL Devon Manuel
Out for season (6): WR Eugene Wilson III (hip), RB Treyaun Webb (leg), CB Jason Marshall Jr. (shoulder), QB Graham Mertz (knee), WR Kahleil Jackson (knee), DL Jamari Lyons (ankle)

Where to watch Florida vs. LSU

Date: Saturday, Nov. 16 | Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
Location: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium — Gainesville, Florida [88,548]

TV: ABC (Dave Pasch, Dusty Dvoracek, Taylor McGregor)
Live stream: ESPN+ | SiriusXM: 137/190 | Radio: WRUF, TuneIn
Live updates: @OnlyGators on Twitter

Game notes

» Florida is 33-34-3 all-time against LSU, which broke the series tie last season. The Gators hold a 16-15-3 edge in The Swamp.
» The Tigers’ five straight wins mark their longest streak in series history. Those victories have come by an average of 10.2 points.
» Florida’s defense has forced turnovers in eight of nine games this season with multiple takeaways in three straight contests for the first time under Napier.
» UF is 12-6 at home, 3-9 on the road and 0-4 in neutral-site games under Napier (3-13 away from home). Dating back to the prior regime, Florida is on a 3-19 drought away from The Swamp with a 3-14 mark in its last 17 true road games.
» The Gators under Napier are 9-0 when allowing 20 points or fewer, 14-2 when leading after the third quarter, 13-5 when leading at halftime and 12-5 when rushing for at least 150 yards. However, UF is 3-14 under Napier when opponents score first, 1-12 when scoring less than 21 points, 5-19 when allowing 21+ points, 1-17 when tied or trailing after the third quarter and 3-13 when being outrushed.
» Florida is 2-14 against AP Top 25 teams under Napier, 1-9 over the last two seasons and 0-5 this season. That drought extends to 8-22 against ranked opponents (2-9 vs. top five teams, 5-12 vs. top 10 teams) since 2018. In that same span, UF is 40-13 against unranked opponents.
» The Gators have scored in 457 consecutive games, an NCAA record.

Prediction and analysis

Spread: Florida +3.5 | O/U: 56.5

Getting Lagway and Badger back was necessary for the Gators to be competitive; the question is whether it’s enough to help them beat a talented Tigers team entering this game thirsty for success coming off consecutive losses. At primary issue on Saturday is Florida’s defense, which had stepped up markedly coming out of the first off week only to now be down a substantial number of players. UF enters the LSU game missing both starting cornerbacks (plus its No. 3 cornerback) and a starting safety — and that’s just in the secondary. Sophomore linebacker Grayson Howard, also a starter, is sidelined as well.

Here’s the thing about the Tigers, though. LSU has scored 36 combined points in the last two games and has largely been unable to take advantage of defenses, even with their much-ballyhooed quarterback, who has a big arm but is prone to throwing interceptions. (Florida has scored 37 in that same span playing six of eight quarters without Lagway.) Perhaps the Gators’ injured secondary is exactly what the doctor ordered, or perhaps the Tigers snuck by Ole Miss and just are not that good otherwise.

Florida’s entire season is on the line Saturday afternoon, and everyone is picking LSU. A win over the Tigers would not only put the Gators on the edge of bowl eligibility, it would be a huge shot in the arm for Napier returning next season and a recruiting apparatus that badly needs momentum entering the final few weeks before the early signing period. To that end, it’s arguable that this is Florida’s biggest game of the season. And it gets to play at home with Lagway and a full complement of playmakers.

It will be obvious early whether the defense is simply too banged up to compete or a unit capable of getting stops and giving the Gators’ offense extra opportunities. With Florida playing at home and getting more than a field goal, that is the play with a lean to the over given recent defensive issues on both sides.

2024 records: 5-3-1 ATS, 6-3 O/U

Odds & ends

» Uniforms: Florida will wear blue jerseys, blue pants and orange helmets for the first and only time this season.