Florida vs. Ole Miss prediction, pick, preview: Where to watch, TV channel, odds, spread, time

Football

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Image Credit: Michael Nash

The Florida Gators rebounded from the firing of head coach Billy Napier with a serious effort in their first contest under interim coach Billy Gonzales only to turn around and implode last week. There’s no telling what version of the Gators will show up Saturday while visiting the No. 7 Ole Miss Rebels.

This may be a game Florida won last year, but plenty has changed over the last 12 months. The Gators are severely injured on both sides of the ball, the team appeared to give up last week, and there is no momentum at their sails like there was in a turnaround effort to conclude the 2024 season.

Sophomore quarterback DJ Lagway put forward an effort so poor that he was actually benched to start the second half, and freshman Tramell Jones Jr. did not fare any better, even if he was more deliberate with some of his passes. Florida is missing playmakers, defenders and motivation as it prepares for an opponent that is not only in the College Football Playoff hunt but perhaps particularly annoyed at the team visiting.

The storyline entering Saturday’s game is neither the Gators’ awful season nor the Rebels’ playoff contention but rather the future of head coach Lane Kiffin, who remains firmly in Florida’s sights to replace Billy Napier as the program’s fifth head coach in the 15 years following the departure of Urban Meyer.

Particularly interesting about this coaching search — firmly on the lips of the college football world, including ESPN, since Napier was fired — is that it was not addressed once on ESPN’s “College GameDay” ahead of kickoff. Why would that be the case? Will it be discussed during the game?

The known is far less interesting than the unknown at this juncture, including what will go down Saturday night. Let’s take a closer look with this game day preview.

Florida vs. Ole Miss: Tale of the tape

Injuries & absences

Probable (3): WR Vernell Brown III, RB Treyaun Webb*, LB Myles Graham
Questionable (2): LB Grayson Howard, WR Taylor Spierto
Out (9): OL Roderick Kearney, RB Ja’Kobi Jackson, DL Caleb Banks, DL LJ McCray, LB Ty Jackson, DB Javion Toombs, DB Michael Caraway Jr., WR Kahleil Jackson, OL Fletcher Westphal
Out for season (4): WR Eugene Wilson III (ankle), WR Dallas Wilson (foot), CB Dijon Johnson (knee), DB Aaron Gates (shoulder)
Opted out of season (1): WR Tank Hawkins

* Webb is expected to be listed as an active player for the first time this season.

Ole Miss only has three players on its entire injury report compared to 18 for Florida.

Where to watch Florida vs. Ole Miss

Date: Saturday, Nov. 15 | Time: 7 p.m. ET
Location: Vaught-Hemingway Stadium — Oxford, Mississippi [64,038]

TV: ESPN (Bob Wischusen, Louis Riddick, Kris Budden)
Stream: ESPN app | SiriusXM: 145 | Radio: WRUF, TuneIn
Live updates: @OnlyGators on Twitter

Florida vs. Ole Miss game notes

» Florida is 13-12-1 all-time against Ole Miss with a 6-2 record in Oxford, including consecutive victories. The Gators have won three straight meetings overall and four of the last five dating back to 2007.
» Interim coaches at UF are 14-11 all-time and 3-4 against ranked opponents.
» Florida opened 1-3, not previously starting with that poor of a record through the first four games of a season in 39 years (1986).
» The Gators entered the 2025 season with the toughest schedule in the nation for the second straight year. UF’s 2024 slate was the most difficult in college football history at the start of the campaign, and its 2025 slate is on its way to remaining the most difficult at the conclusion of the year, too.
» The Gators this season played four straight top 10 teams for the first time in program history, going 1-3 in those games. No other FBS program has faced such a stretch since 1968.
» The defense has forced turnovers in 19 of the last 21 games with multiple takeaways in 15 of those contests. A 12-game takeaway streak came to an end in Week 4.
» Florida has given up 21+ points in six consecutive games after holding opponents to 20 points or fewer in seven straight games.
» Florida is 18-6 at home, 4-13 on the road and 1-5 in neutral-site games since the start of Napier’s tenure (5-18 away from home). It has a 4-18 mark in its last 22 true road games dating back to the prior regime. UF is 0-5 away from home this season.
» The Gators since Napier took over are 19-2 when leading after the third quarter, 18-6 when leading at halftime, 18-8 when scoring first and 18-5 when rushing for at least 150 yards. However, UF is 3-18 since Napier was hired when opponents score first, 1-18 when scoring less than 21 points, 7-23 when allowing 21+ points, 4-19 when tied or trailing at halftime, 3-23 when tied or trailing after the third quarter and 4-18 when being outrushed.
» Florida is 5-18 against AP Top 25 teams since the start of Napier’s tenure, 4-13 over the last three seasons. That drought extends to 11-26 against ranked opponents (2-13 vs. top five teams, 7-16 vs. top 10 teams) since 2018. In that same span, the Gators are 42-15 against unranked opponents.
» UF has lost 18 straight games against ranked opponents outisde The Swamp, its last such win coming in 2020.
» The Gators have scored in 470 consecutive games, an NCAA record.

Florida vs. Ole Miss prediction, analysis

Spread: Florida +11 | O/U: 53.5

There’s truly no telling how this game will go. Ole Miss has only lost to Georgia this season, but there have been plenty of other games in which it has failed to impress. Still, the Rebels beat South Carolina by 16 two weeks ago, and considering how Florida played in an embarrassing 31-point loss at Kentucky, it’s tough to imagine the Gators somehow performing better against a more talented team in a more difficult road environment. UF is 0-5 away from home this season.

The Kiffin factor must be considered, too. Whether he plans to stay or leave, this is a statement-making opportunity on a national stage with all eyes not only on the game but on him specifically. Florida did win this game 24-17 last year, but that came in the friendly confines of The Swamp with a much better defense on the field. The Gators are insanely thin on the back end, and they are down numerous playmakers, too.

Florida covering does not seem to be in the cards, barring a complete turnaround from its last performance. And if that’s the case, considering the way Ole Miss plays offensively, look for this to shoot over with relative ease.

2025 record: 5-4 ATS, 6-3 O/U

Odds & ends

» Uniforms: Florida will wear its traditional orange helmets with white jerseys and white pants.