Florida vs. Texas A&M: Prediction, pick, odds, spread, football game time, watch live stream, TV channel

Football

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Image Credit: Graphic by Michael Nash

While the Florida Gators and Texas A&M Aggies have both fallen below expectations through nine weeks of the season, it’s fair to say Florida’s struggles in Year 1 under head coach Billy Napier are far more excusable than those for Texas A&M in Year 5 under head coach Jimbo Fisher. Something’s gotta give on Saturday, and the Gators certainly hope it’s the Aggies that give way to a big road victory for the visitors.

Florida and Texas A&M will meet for just the fourth time as SEC opponents, and to this point, the series has been uniquely close with all three prior games decided by three points or less. Due to a scheduling quirk created by the COVID-19 pandemic, the Gators will visit the Aggies for the second time in three seasons and third time overall in those four meetings. So at least some members of UF’s roster know what to expect when they visit College Station, Texas, on Saturday afternoon.

Both teams badly need a win, and while Florida will clearly be at a disadvantage as the visiting team, the matchup actually sets up well. Still, while UF needs to win just two of its last four to become bowl-eligible, TAMU must take three of four — and it still has LSU on the schedule. In other words, this is a would-be-really-good-to-win game for the Gators, but it’s likely a must-win if the Aggies want to go bowling.

What will go down early Saturday afternoon as Florida visits Texas A&M? Let’s find out.

Tale of the tape

Injuries and absences

Questionable (2): WR Justin Shorter (ankle), LB Scooby Williams (lower body)
Out (4): TE Keon Zipperer (hamstring), TE Arlis Boardingham (shoulder), LB Diwun Black (lower body), TE Nick Elksnis (upper body)
Out for season (2): CB Devin Moore (shoulder), LS Marco Ortiz (upper body)

Update: Ahead of kickoff, ESPN’s Pete Thamel reported that Texas A&M may be without a number of players due to a flu outbreak that ran through the team this week. A source close to the Aggies program tells OnlyGators.com that multiple key players missed multiple practices throughout the week, though hope is that at least some of them would be able to suit up Saturday. Thamel reported QB Conner Weigman is one of the players with the flu; Only Gators learned that star RB Devon Achane was also sick during the week.

Viewing information

Date: Saturday, Nov. 5 | Time: 12 p.m. ET
Location: Kyle Field — College Station, Texas [102,733]

TV: ESPN (Mark Jones, Robert Griffin III, Quint Kessenich)
Live stream: ESPN+ | SiriusXM: 108/192 | Radio: WRUF, TuneIn
Live updates: @OnlyGators on Twitter

Game notes

» Texas A&M is 3-2 all-time against Florida with a 2-1 edge since joining the SEC in 2012. The Gators won that game 2017 but have lost the last two.
» All three UF-TAMU meetings in SEC play have been decided by three points or less (20-17, 17-19, 38-41).
» The Gators have scored 24+ points in just eight of their last 14 games.
» Florida is 4-0 this season when rushing for 150+ yards and 3-0 when leading after the third quarter.
» UF is third nationally in yards per carry (5.9) and tied for ninth in fewest sacks allowed (eight). It is tied for second in the SEC in turnovers gained (14).
» The Gators are 7-13 against ranked opponents (2-5 vs. top five teams, 5-7 vs. top 10 teams) and 30-9 against unranked opponents since 2018. They are 1-3 against AP Top 25 teams this season.
» Florida was the only team in the nation to play three top-20 opponents in the first four weeks of the season. It has faced five teams ranked at the time of kickoff and three teams in the current top 10 of the College Football Playoff Rankings.
» UF is one of two FBS teams nationally (Alabama) that has not yet lost to an opponent that finished the season with a losing record since 2004.
» The Gators have scored in 431 consecutive games, an NCAA record.

Prediction and analysis

Spread: Florida +3.5 | O/U: 55

The key element in the Gators’ losses this season has been defenses making them one dimensional by taking the might out of their running game, which is one of the best in the nation in a yards-per-carry average. Unfortunately for the Aggies, they are 13th in the SEC against the run. So, even if Texas A&M sells out and slows down Florida’s rushers, it’s unlikely to do enough damage to force quarterback Anthony Richardson into throwing an obscene amount. Like Ole Miss last week, UF has consistently showcased the ability to score quickly and bounce back from adversity, which should negate its defensive deficiencies.

That said, the Aggies clearly found something last week in QB Conner Weigman. Pairing him with a consistent rusher in Devon Achane, there should be enough for Texas A&M to put some points on the board. The Aggies also have both the experience advantage in the coaching matchup and homefield advantage given the 12th Man. In other words, even if the Gators find success early, this is not going to be a walk in the park despite TAMU’s struggles to this point.

This is going to be a close game. The three SEC meetings between these programs have all been decided by three points or less, Florida has played every opponent close this year, and Texas A&M is not going to take a major defeat at home. Expect a score similar to last week’s where the Aggies fell 31-28 to the Rebels. Let’s take the Gators to cover with the total going over.

2022 records: ATS picks 2-6 | O/U picks 5-3

Odds and ends

» Uniforms: Florida will wear white jerseys, blue pants and orange helmets for the third and last time this season.