Florida vs. Vanderbilt prediction, pick, odds, spread, how to watch live stream, game time, TV channel

Football

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Image Credit: Michael Nash

Yet another rollercoaster season continues for the Florida Gators, which welcome the Vanderbilt Commodores into Ben Hill Griffin Stadium for homecoming as less than three-touchdown favorites. Though Florida has shut out Vanderbilt in its last two meetings on Florida Field, there are persistent questions about the Gators’ level of play under head coach Billy Napier, and the ‘Dores did pull off an upset win in this matchup last season.

UF has won four straight games in Gainesville, Florida, and the team should be motivated after spending the last week hearing from detractors who did not believe the team — neither players nor coaching staff — gave maximum effort last week. The Gators have also won four straight homecoming games, though there are still plenty of questions to be answered about this year’s squad — and the game is happening earlier than it does historically.

Napier was more praiseworthy of Florida during practice this week than the last two, which offers some reason for optimism. A bounce-back win of significance in this spot could set the Gators up for success heading into the bye week, but they will have to put forward a significant effort with a number of injuries to key players on offense.

What will go down Saturday afternoon? Let’s find out.

Don’t miss our Florida Football Friday Final covering thoughts from Napier and multiple Florida players entering this Week 6 showdown. Plus, take a look at the updated Gators depth chart.

Tale of the tape

Injuries and absences

Active (1): TE Tony Livingston, S Miguel Mitchell (lower body)
Out (10): C Kingsley Eguakun (ankle), RB Trevor Etienne (concussion), OL Austin Barber (lower body), WR Caleb Douglas (leg), DB Ja’Markis Weston (upper body), TE Keon Zipperer (lower body), OL Caden Jones (foot), TE Jonathan Odom (upper body), WR Thai Chiaokhiao-Bowman (lower body), TE Dante Zanders (lower body)
Out for season (2): DL Justus Boone (knee), RB Cam Carroll (knee

Viewing information

Date: Saturday, Oct. 7 | Time: 4 p.m. ET
Location: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium — Gainesville, Florida [88,548]

TV: SEC Network (Dave Neal, Matt Stinchcomb, Tori Petry)
Live stream: ESPN+ | SiriusXM: 109/190 | Radio: WRUF, TuneIn
Live updates: @OnlyGators on Twitter

Game notes

» Florida is 43-11-2 all-time against Vanderbilt with a 23-2-1 record in The Swamp.
» UF has won 30 of the last 23 meetings since 1989 but lost twice in the last 10 meetings (both on the road), including last season in Year 1 under `Napier.
» The Gators have won four straight home games.
» UF has won by a combined 98-0 over the last two meetings against VU in The Swamp. The Commodores have not scored in Gainesville since 2017.
» The Gators entered the season with 35 new scholarship players on the roster, tied for 12th most in the FBS. They also had just 115 combined starts returning, second-fewest in the nation, and only 69 returning players, ninth-fewest in the nation.
» Florida under Napier is 8-0 when leading after the third quarter and 8-2 when rushing for at least 150 yards. However, UF is 3-6 when opponents score first, 1-5 when scoring less than 21 points, 3-9 when allowing 21+ points, 1-9 when tied or trailing after the third quarter and 1-6 when being outrushed.
» Florida is only 33-11 against unranked opponents since 2018
» The Gators have scored in 441 consecutive games, an NCAA record.

Prediction and analysis

Spread: Florida -17.5 | O/U: 51

The fact that a spread of less than three touchdowns not only exists but is a question against Vanderbilt tells you the state of the Florida program right now. It’s quite possible that the Gators win this going away given the ‘Dores have not scored a single point in The Swamp since 2017. But it’s difficult to see a Vandy team that scored twice as many points against Kentucky (28) as Florida (14) and think that it cannot make this a game and perhaps even do the unthinkable.

Despite an 0-3 record, Vandy has flashed offense in all of its Power Five games this season. In other words, it should score a couple times against UF, which proved last week its defense was fool’s gold going after weaker offensive teams to kick off the season. The ‘Dores have also proven they are unable to stop much of anyone. That does not guarantee anything for the Gators, though, which will seemingly be without their top offensive weapon (Etienne) and two key starting offensive linemen (Eguakun, Barber).

All of that makes this an incredibly difficult game to handicap, as most of Florida’s games have been this season. The Gators should win, but expecting it to be by margin is not advisable, and the over just seems to be the right side of the total unless this turns into a total rock fight.

2023 records: ATS picks 2-3 | O/U picks 3-2 | Underdog SU picks 1-0

Odds and ends

» Uniforms: Florida will wear white jerseys, white pants and orange helmets. (Fun fact: UF will not wear orange jerseys or pants at all this season.)