Florida vs. Missouri prediction, pick and preview: Where to watch, TV channel, odds, spread, time

Football

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Image Credit: Michael Nash

Newly minted as a top 10 team, the No. 8 Florida Gators hit the road off their biggest win in more than a decade aiming to maintain momentum and continue a dream season in Year 1 under head coach Jon Sumrall. The No. 25 Missouri Tigers hope to stand in their way and continue their relative dominance in the series when hosting in Columbia, Missouri.

While the Gators are 2-4 against the Tigers when playing on Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium — losers of consecutive meetings — the 2026 edition of this team is entirely different than the last few that have visited. Florida is setting all kinds of scoring records with each passing week, backing up against and even surpassing some of the top units coached by Urban Meyer and Steve Spurrier.

Faced with what many would consider to be a “trap game,” the Gators have an opportunity to prove that true change has come to the program. Sumrall ensured Florida did not get complacent by putting a halt to any further celebrating of success over the last week, especially considering how many talking heads are putting over the team’s early proficiency.

The Gators have now run all over a vaunted defense in a tough road environment and contended with one of the nation’s most prolific passers and playmakers in a huge home game. Now, they must back up their play.

While still one of the healthiest teams in the nation, Florida will likely be without sophomore wide receiver Vernell Brown III, who was downgraded to doubtful with a knee injury ahead of kickoff. However, senior WR Eric Singleton Jr. (ankle) is active and completely off the injury report, and UF still has its dynamic one-two punch of junior running back Jadan Baugh and junior quarterback Aaron Philo to carry its offense against a creative coach who gets his team up for big games.

What will go down Saturday on the road? Let’s take a closer look with this game day preview.

Florida vs. Missouri: Tale of the tape

Injuries & absences

Active (1): WR Eric Singleton Jr. (ankle)
Probable (1): WR Bailey Stockton (back)
Doubtful (1): WR Vernell Brown III (knee)

Where to watch Florida vs. Missouri

Date: Saturday, Oct. 3 | Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
Location: Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium — Columbia, Missouri [63,609]

TV: ABC (Joe Tessitore, Jesse Palmer, Kris Budden)
App: ESPN | SiriusXM: 132/230 | Radio: WRUF, TuneIn
Live updates: @OnlyGators on Twitter | @Gators on Bluesky

Florida vs. Missouri game notes

» Florida trails 6-7 in the all-time series against Missouri, though the teams are 6-6 since the Tigers joined the SEC. UF is only 2-4 in Columbia with losses in consecutive meetings. This is only the second meeting with both programs entering as ranked teams.
» The Gators have scored 214 points, the most ever for an SEC coach through his first four games, most for the program from Weeks 1-4 since 1996 and most for the program through any four-game stretch since 1997. UF’s +123 differential is the second-largest for a coach through his first four games.
» Florida has more games of 50+ points scored in 2026 (three) than it did from 2022-25 (two). It has scored 44+ points in each of its first four games for the first time since 2001 and 50+ points in three of its first four games for the first time since 1996.
» UF is one touchdown away from scoring as many this season (28) as it did all of last season (29).
» The Gators last week registered their highest-ranked win in 11 years, and their 52 points tied for the most against a top-five opponent since the 1996 national championship.
» Sumrall is the first coach to start his UF career 4-0 since 2015.
» The defense has forced turnovers in 26 of the last 28 games across the last two seasons with multiple takeaways in 19 of those contests.
» Florida has allowed opponents to score 21+ points in 12 of the last 13 games dating back to the 2025 season.
» The Gators went 4-14 (.222) on the road and 5-19 (.208) away from home under the last regime, 29-35 (.453) on the road and 40-56 (.417) away from home since 2011, after going 17-7 (.708) on the road and 29-10 (.744) away from home under Urban Meyer from 2005-10.
» Sumrall went 18-7 (.720) on the road and 19-10 (.655) away from home as head coach at Troy and Tulane with six of those 10 total losses coming to Power Four teams. He is 1-0 at UF.
» Florida went 5-19 (.208) against ranked opponents under the last regime, 20-49 (.290) against such teams since 2011, after going 18-10 (.643) under Meyer from 2005-10.
» Sumrall went 1-7 (.125) against ranked opponents at Troy and Tulane, though his teams were underdogs in those games. He is 1-0 at UF.
» The Gators have scored in 477 consecutive games, an NCAA record.

Florida vs. Missouri prediction, analysis

Spread: Florida -5.5 | O/U: 57.5

Call it whatever you want — let-down spot, trap game — this is a classic situation in which a team riding high underestimates its opponent, venue and the circumstances of a matchup. The Gators have absolutely dominated at the start of this season and are coming off a statement win that has thrust them back into the national conversation for the first time in years. Really, the only part about Saturday’s matchup that does not fit the “trap game” billing is that Florida hosts South Carolina next week rather than another ranked opponent.

UF has struggled at Faurot Field, though many of those games have been noon kickoffs with teams that were closer together from a talent rankings standpoint. Not having Brown is an issue for the Gators, but they have plenty of more-than-capable pass-catching options. Meanwhile, the Tigers are missing their top EDGE rusher and another key player at that position, which should give Philo plenty of time to operate.

There’s no question that Mizzou will engineer points, especially against a Florida secondary that continues to struggle, but considering the hosts’ prior SEC opponents each scored 31+ points — and neither had anywhere near the running game UF is bringing into Columbia led by Baugh — the Gators should not have any issue lighting up the scoreboard. This line might hit 6 or higher before kickoff, so while 5.5 is truly no-man’s land, it would be better to side with Florida and another over until the Gators prove they can stop a quality opponent from getting up and down the field.

2026 record: 3-1 ATS, 3-1 O/U

Odds & ends

» Uniforms: Florida will wear orange helmets with white jerseys and blue pants on Saturday night for the first of only two games this season, despite it being the Gators’ traditional road combination.