Florida still likeliest champ entering Final Four

By Adam Silverstein
March 31, 2014

Statistician Nate Silver, who nailed the 2012 presidential race and has earned well-deserved praise for his rigorous statistical analyses, updated his probabilities for the remainder of the 2014 NCAA Tournament on Sunday evening and came away with even better news for fans of the (1) Florida Gators hoping to see their team win its third national championship – first since 2007.

Silver’s FiveThirtyEight.com model projects that Florida now has a 38.4 percent chance to win the national title (+20.0 percent*), making it the overall favorite in the Final Four. (2) Wisconsin (31.2 percent), (8) Kentucky (19.1 percent) and (7) UConn (11.3 percent) round out the remainder of the field.

The Gators have a 69.9 percent probability to take down the Huskies in their Final Four showdown at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, TX on Saturday at 6:09 p.m., according to Silver, while the Badgers have a 58.2 percent chance to defeat the Wildcats later that evening on the other side of the bracket.

Florida (36-2) has the nation’s longest active winning streak at 30 games.

Check out the methodology Silver has consistently used to make his NCAA predictions.

* Percent change based on original probability projections before tournament began.


  1. Dave Massey says:

    Looks good on paper, but they play the game on the court. Any one of these teams can win it all. It would be nice to beat UConn and Wisconsin though, that would be sweet revenge. Course puttin another ding in Kentucky would feel pretty good too.

    • Gatoralum88 says:

      If that happens, I guess we could call it A PERFECT SEASON of sorts. Right???

      Boy, Kentucky is like a cockroach that can’t be killed! They CAN NOT win this thing! It’ll only further validate slimeball Calipari’s “1 & done” approach which is all that’s WRONG with college basketball. I don’t have a problem with a kid leaving for the pros after a year, I just don’t think we need a team of them, with that in mind, assembling at UK each fall to do so. If it happens, I think it would open the flood gates even more to him for top prospects who have no interest in going to school & do so only because they can’t enter the draft. Besides, frankly, I’m not sure I want to see them face the Gators a 4th time. Go Badgers!…beat Kentucky!

  2. Joe says:

    It would be poetic justice to beat UConn and then Wisconsin for the championship. Here’s hoping we get the chance.

  3. Ken (CA) says:

    Interesting vegas odds put put UF at 1-1, UK at 5-2, 501 and UC at 8-1.

    It is really depressing that his claim to fame is calling the 2012 election correctly. Would be nice if could use another example of why he is good!

  4. 305Gator says:

    I don’t care about these polls and stats, like dave said above anyone can win this thing. I do like the chances of the Gators going all the way and I would like to see them face Wisconsin in the final, that would be poetic justice.
    Go Gators!

  5. ptoddchesser says:

    I would love to see a Florida v Wisconsin game with a Gator victory. First I am a Gator, second it would be such revenge to beat the two teams that gave their only losses, and third I have Florida and Wisconsin in the final on my bracket which I stand to win in my pool.

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