Florida vs. Maryland, 2025 NCAA Tournament preview: Prediction, pick, where to watch, odds

Image Credit: Michael Nash

Florida Gators basketball enters the second weekend of the 2025 NCAA Tournament holding the No. 1 seed in the West Region with three tough challengers if it hopes to come out of its quadrant and compete in the Final Four. Listed as the fourth overall seed in the field, Florida advanced past the No. 16-seed Norfolk State Spartans in the first round and the No. 8-seed UConn Huskies in the second round, getting a measure of revenge for a loss in the 2014 Final Four.

Head coach Todd Golden has the Gators’ eyes are firmly focused advancing past the No. 4-seed Maryland Terrapins and into the Elite Eight. Florida has won eight straight Sweet 16 games with eyes on playing in the regional final for the first time since 2017. That’s just the tip of the iceberg, of course, as a sixth Final Four appearance and fourth opportunity to play for a national championship are on the line over the next couple weeks.

Thursday marks just the fifth all-time meeting between these programs on the hardwood.

Senior point guard Walter Clayton Jr., one of the nation’s top players as an unanimous All-America first-team selection, leads Florida into San Francisco fronting a triumvirate of star backcourt standouts that have deftly alternated standing out as team leaders throughout the season. Guards senior Will Richard and redshirt senior Alijah Martin join Clayton as Florida’s three leading scorers combining to account for 46.0 points per game.

Sophomore forward Alex Condon finds himself in the midst of a breakout campaign that has NBA scouts frothing at the mouth about his potential at the next level. He is averaging 11.1 points and 7.8 rebounds despite not yet having completely escaped mini slump. Classmate and positionmate Thomas Haugh, who stands alongside Condon averaging 9.4 points and 5.9 boards, has filled in some of those gaps nicely.

Not to be overlooked are 36-game starting center sophomore Rueben Chinyelu (6.1 points, 6.5 rebounds), primary reserve junior G Denzel Aberdeen (7.9 points, 1.5 assists) and junior C Micah Handlogten, who has played the last 12 games after sitting out the prior 24 before unselfishly deciding that helping the Gators compete for a national championship was more important than preserving a season of collegiate eligibility.

The pieces remain in place for Florida. The Gator Boys remain hot. March Madness remains rolling along with two tremendous teams from the nation’s best conferences going head-to-head.

What will go down Thursday as the Gators continue their sojourn in the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Let’s find out.

Tale of the tape

	(1) Florida Gators	(4) Maryland Terrapins
Head coach	Todd Golden	Kevin Willard
Record	32-4	27-8
Conference	SEC	Big Ten

Injuries & absences

Doubtful: F Sam Alexis (ankle)

Where to watch Florida vs. Maryland

Game: 2025 NCAA Tournament | West Region | Round 2
Date: Thursday, March 27 | Time: 7:39 p.m. ET
Location: Chase Center — San Francisco, California [18,064]

TV: TBS (Kevin Harlan, Dan Bonner, Stan Van Gundy, Lauren Shehadi)
Live stream: March Madness Live | SiriusXM: 202 | Radio: TuneIn
Live updates: @OnlyGators on Twitter

Game notes

» Florida is 2-2 all-time against Maryland with the teams last playing at a neutral site in 2021-22.
» The Gators are 47-20 all-time in NCAA Tournament play, 17-6 in the first round, 11-6 in the second round and 9-1 in the Sweet 16.
» UF is playing in the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2017 and has advanced to the Elite Eight in its last eight third-round appearances.
» The Gators are a No. 1 seed for the third time in program history holding a 12-1 record in NCAA Tournament play. They have advanced to the Final Four on both prior occasions (2007, 2014).
» Florida is seeking its sixth Final Four appearance (1994, 2000, 2006-07, 2014), fourth national title game appearance (2000, 2006-07) and third national championship (2006-07) in program history.
» UF is rated No. 1 nationally in offensive efficiency. It is one of two teams (Duke) rated among the top 10 in offensive and defensive efficiency.
» Florida won its first conference title since 2014 by capturing the 2025 SEC Tournament championship, its fifth in program history.
» The Gators in 2025 beat a No. 1 team outside of the NCAA Tournament for the first time in program history and actually did so twice, once at home and once away.
» Florida is 8-2 this season against AP Top 25 opponents, 14-12 since Golden took over the program.
» Senior point guard Walter Clayton Jr. has made a 3-pointer in 58 consecutive games, a program record.
» Clayton last week became the first postseason All-America first-team selection (individual and unanimous) in program history.

» Florida under Golden is 57-9 when leading at halftime (26-0 this season), 66-5 when leading with 5 minutes left (29-0), 53-10 when outrebounding an opponent (26-3), 42-15 when forcing more turnovers (22-1), 50-8 when shooting 45% or better from the field (23-2), 64-7 when outshooting an opponent (28-1), 23-4 when shooting 40% or better from 3-point range (10-0), 59-8 when outshooting an opponent from 3-point range (29-0), 49-16 when attempting more free throws (15-4), 48-16 when four or more players score in double figures (22-2) and 24-3 when five or more players score in double figures (10-0)

Prediction and analysis

Spread: Florida -5.5 | O/U: 155.5

The Gators enter the second week of March Madness having been tested more than they could have expected, and that should only make the program better as the competition toughens and the stakes continue getting raised. Florida has been an immense cover team all season (even though it is 0-2 ATS in NCAA Tournament play), and Maryland presents an interesting obstacle. Why? The Terrapins are only as good as their starting five. They have one of the best 1-5 units in the nation yet one of the worst benches — perhaps the worst bench — out of any of the remaining teams in the tournament.

The immense depth the Gators possess — particularly in the frontcourt — should create a problem as long as Florida focuses on getting the ball in the paint and putting pressure on both Derik Queen and Julian Reese. If referees are calling fouls like they did in the last game, UF will develop an immense advantage in the paint that would be difficult to overcome. The Terps have only lost a single game by 6+ points this season, but the Gators have won 12 of its last 15 games by 9+ points, and they have completely dominated some better teams already this season. The total is a tougher call but let’s lean toward the over.

2024-25 records: 0-2 ATS, 2-0 O/U

West Region bracket

Sweet 16

(1) Florida vs. (4) Maryland
(3) Texas Tech vs. (10) Arkansas

Round 1 || Round 2

(1) Florida 95, (16) Norfolk State 69
(8) UConn 67, (9) Oklahoma 59 || (1) Florida 77, (8) UConn 75

(12) Colorado State 78, (5) Memphis 70 || (4) Maryland 72, (12) Colorado State 71
(4) Maryland 81, (13) Grand Canyon 49

(11) Drake 67, (6) Missouri 57
(3) Texas Tech 82, (14) UNC Wilmington 72 || (3) Texas Tech 77, (11) Drake 64

(10) Arkansas 79, (7) Kansas 72 || (10) Arkansas 75, (2) St. John’s 66
(2) St. John’s 83, (15) Omaha 53