Florida vs. Iowa, 2026 NCAA Tournament preview: Prediction, pick, odds, where to watch March Madness

Image Credit: UAA

Fresh off the second-most dominant performance in the history of men’s March Madness, the No. 1 seed Florida Gators remain in Tampa, Florida, to face the No. 9 seed Iowa Hawkeyes for the first time in program history. Listed as the fourth top seed in the field, Florida will have a battle on its hands against a rugged Iowa squad that played No. 1 seed Michigan close just a couple weeks ago and holds a win over No. 4 seed Nebraska, which awaits the winner in the Sweet 16.

After a couple of rough outings in the SEC Tournament, the defending national champion Gators seemed to exorcise some demons in a dominant 59-point win over Prairie View A&M, the program’s biggest win by margin in the NCAA Tournament. Florida is eyeing a seventh Final Four appearance and fifth opportunity to play for a national championship.

Whether the Gators can climb the mountain again remains to be seen, but Tampa has been friendly to Florida, and the best frontcourt in the nation has played up to its accolades through 40 minutes. Juniors center Rueben Chinyelu and forwards Thomas Haugh and Alex Condon are three of five starters who average double digits in scoring with Chinyelu averaging a double-double of 11.2 points and 11.5 rebounds per game entering the second round.

Guards senior Xaivian Lee and sophomore Boogie Fland round out the starting five, and while neither has shot consistently from long range, Fland had his best overall game of the season Friday. The Gators getting enough from its backcourt will be key to prevailing in the 2026 NCAA Tournament, as they did a year ago behind Walter Clayton Jr., Alijah Martin and Will Richard.

The pieces are again in place for Florida to make a run in March Madness, and it continues Sunday in the Sunshine State. What will go down as the Gators continue their sojourn in the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Let’s find out.

Tale of the tape

	(1) Florida Gators	(9) Iowa Hawkeyes
Head coach	Todd Golden	Ben McCollum
Record	27-7	22-12
Conference	SEC	Big Ten

Where to watch Florida vs. Iowa

Game: 2026 NCAA Tournament | South Region | Round 2
Date: Sunday, March 22 | Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Location: Benchmark International Arena — Tampa, Florida [21,500]

TV: TNT (Tom McCarthy, Candace Parker, Dan Bonner, AJ Ross)
Live stream: March Madness Live | SiriusXM: 202 | Radio: TuneIn
Live updates: @OnlyGators on Twitter

Game notes

» Florida has never played Iowa on the hardwood, but it is 20-2 against teams seeded No. 9 or lower in NCAA Tournament play.
» The Gators are 52-20 all-time in NCAA Tournament play, 18-6 in the first round (10-1 in their last 11 opportunities), 12-6 in the second round and 7-1 under Golden.
» Florida is a No. 1 seed for the fourth time in program history, holding a 17-1 record in NCAA Tournament play. It has advanced to the Final Four on all three prior occasions (2007, 2014, 2025) and is seeking back-to-back appearances in the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2011-14.
» The Gators are a No. 1 seed in consecutive seasons for the first time in program history.
» Florida is seeking its seventh Final Four appearance (1994, 2000, 2006-07, 2014, 2025), fifth national title game appearance (2000, 2006-07, 2025) and third national championship (2006-07, 2025) in program history.
» UF is one of three teams nationally rated among the top 10 in offensive and defensive efficiency.
» The Gators lead the nation in rebounding margin (+15.1), offensive rebounds per game (16.1) and rebounds per game (45.7)
» Florida won its first regular-season SEC championship since 2014 and eighth in program history.
» Chinyelu is nine defensive rebounds away from matching Al Horford’s single-season record. On Friday, he became the program’s solo leader in double-doubles with 19 this season.

» Florida under Golden this season is 24-1 when leading at halftime (83-10 overall), 27-1 when leading with 5 minutes left (95-6), 26-5 when outrebounding an opponent (83-15), 10-1 when forcing more turnovers (51-16), 21-2 when shooting 45% or better from the field (73-10), 25-0 when outshooting an opponent from the field (92-7), 6-0 when shooting 40% or better from 3-point range (29-4), 15-1 when outshooting an opponent from 3-point range (78-9), 18-2 when attempting more free throws (61-18), 23-3 when 4+ players score in double figures (72-19) and 17-0 when 5+ players score in double figures (42-3)

Prediction and analysis

Spread: Florida -9.5 | O/U: 145.5

Getting back to basics in the first round was key for the Gators, who are going up against a Hawkeyes team that ranks among the top 30 in offensive and defensive efficiency, something only 11 other teams in the nation can claim. Florida has lost to three of those teams already this season, four if expanding to include Vanderbilt, which ranks 32nd on defense. Still, the Gators are superior in most phases, and they have been tested against better competition more consistently throughout the season.

Iowa proved against Clemson that it is willing to bang around in the paint, and it will be up to Florida to flex similarly, continue to dominate the boards and create second-chance opportunities. The Gators have the size and skill advantage, and even if their 3-point shooting goes cold, they work at such a fast pace that there should be few issues finding the bottom of the net. Iowa lost its last three games of the regular season (one as a double-digit favorite) and got bounced by Ohio State (which lost to TCU in the first round) of the Big Ten Tournament. The line is substantial, but it’s better to be on the Florida side as this could go sideways fast. If it does, look for the total to soar over.

2025-26 records: 0-1 ATS, 0-1 O/U

South Region bracket

Round 2

(1) Florida vs. (9) Iowa
(4) Nebraska 74, (5) Vanderbilt 72

(3) Illinois 76, (11) VCU 55
(2) Houston 88, (10) Texas A&M 57

Round 1

(1) Florida 114, (16) Prairie View A&M 55
(9) Iowa 67, (8) Clemson 61

(5) Vanderbilt 78, (12) McNeese 68
(4) Nebraska 76, (13) Troy 47

(11) VCU 82, (6) North Carolina 78
(3) Illinois 105, (14) Penn 70

(10) Texas A&M 63, (7) Saint Mary’s 50
(2) Houston 83, (15) Idaho 53