Florida vs. Houston, 2025 national championship preview: Prediction, pick, where to watch, odds, line

Image Credit: Michael Nash

Florida Gators basketball is back in the national championship game. Competing in the final contest of an NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2007, the third national title in program history is now in Florida’s sights as the fourth overall seed in the field continues its run of immense basketball with the stage larger than ever before.

UF advanced past the No. 16-seed Norfolk State Spartans in the first round, the No. 8-seed UConn Huskies in the second round (getting a measure of revenge for a loss in the 2014 Final Four) and the No. 4-seed Maryland Terrapins in the Sweet 16 before escaping the No. 3-seed Texas Tech Red Raiders in the Elite Eight. Just 48 hours ago, it mounted another immense comeback using a 14-point swing in the second half to take down No. 1 overall seed Auburn in the Final Four.

Head coach Todd Golden now has the Gators’ eyes firmly focused on raising another trophy as the No. 1 seed in the West Region meets the Houston Cougars, the No. 1 seed out of the South Region (third overall seed), in the Final Four. Florida is 3-2 all-time in national semifinals making its first such appearance 2014. The Gators are now looking for a fourth opportunity to play for a national championship.

Senior point guard Walter Clayton Jr., one of the nation’s top players as an unanimous All-America first-team selection, led Florida out of San Francisco fronting a triumvirate of star backcourt standouts that have deftly alternated standing out as team leaders throughout the season. Guards senior Will Richard and redshirt senior Alijah Martin join Clayton as Florida’s three leading scorers combining to account for 46.3 points per game.

Clayton individually became the first player to score 30+ points in consecutive games starting in the Elite Eight or later since Larry Bird in 1979. His 34-point effort against AU marked a career-high with Clayton becoming the leading single-season scorer and two-season scorer in program history.

Sophomore forward Alex Condon was in the midst of a breakout campaign that had NBA scouts frothing at the mouth about his potential at the next level. He is averaging 10.5 points and 7.6 rebounds but has struggled mightily since returning from an ankle injury. Classmate and positionmate Thomas Haugh, who stands alongside Condon averaging 9.9 points and 6.2 boards, has stepped up massively to fill in some of those gaps becoming a far more valuable player during March Madness.

Not to be overlooked are 39-game starting center sophomore Rueben Chinyelu (6.0 points, 6.6 rebounds), primary reserve junior G Denzel Aberdeen (7.7 points, 1.7 assists) and junior C Micah Handlogten, who has played the last 15 games after sitting out the prior 24 before unselfishly deciding that helping the Gators compete for a national championship was more important than preserving a season of collegiate eligibility.

The pieces remain in place for Florida. The Gator Boys remain hot. March Madness rolls into its final 40 minutes two of the nation’s best teams all season going head-to-head for the national championship.

What will go down Monday as the Gators wrap up their sojourn in the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Let’s find out.

Tale of the tape

	(1) Florida Gators	(1) Houston Cougars
Head coach	Todd Golden	Kelvin Sampson
Record	35-4	35-4
Conference	SEC	Big 12

Injuries & absences

Questionable: F Sam Alexis (ankle)

Where to watch Florida vs. Houston

Game: 2025 NCAA Tournament | National Championship
Date: Monday, April 7 | Time: 8:50 p.m. ET
Location: Alamodome — San Antonio, Texas [68,000]

TV: CBS (Ian Eagle, Bill Raftery, Grant Hill, Tracy Wolfson)
Live stream: March Madness Live | SiriusXM: 84 | Radio: TuneIn
Live updates: @OnlyGators on Twitter

Game notes

» Florida is 0-2 all-time against Houston with the programs not meeting since the 1973-74 season.
» The Gators are 50-20 all-time in NCAA Tournament play, 17-6 in the first round, 11-6 in the second round, 10-1 in the Sweet 16 and 6-4 in the Elite Eight and 4-2 in the Final Four.
» UF is playing in the national championship game for the first time since 2007; it is 2-1 all-time when contending for a national title.
» The Gators are a No. 1 seed for the third time in program history holding a 15-1 record in NCAA Tournament play. They have advanced to the Final Four on all three occasions (2007, 2014, 2025) and the national championship twice (2007, 2025)
» Florida is making its sixth Final Four appearance (1994, 2000, 2006-07, 2014, 2025) and fourth national title game appearance (2000, 2006-07, 2025) seeking the third national championship (2006-07) in program history.
» UF is rated No. 1 nationally in offensive efficiency. It is one of two teams (Duke) rated among the top 10 in offensive and defensive efficiency.
» Florida won its first conference title since 2014 by capturing the 2025 SEC Tournament championship, its fifth in program history.
» The Gators in 2025 beat a No. 1 team outside of the NCAA Tournament for the first time in program history and actually did so twice, once at home and once away.
» Florida is 11-2 this season against AP Top 25 opponents, 17-12 since Golden took over the program.
» Clayton has made a 3-pointer in 61 consecutive games, a program record.
» Clayton became the first postseason All-America first-team selection (individual and unanimous) in program history.
» Clayton with 702 points entering Monday’s game is UF’s single-season scoring record holder. He holds two of the program’s top-six scoring seasons with more combined points than any other player across two campaigns.
» Clayton’s 123 points over the last five games are the most by any Gators player in an NCAA Tournament, and his 34 points Saturday night were the most by any UF player in the Final Four.

» Florida under Golden is 59-9 when leading at halftime (28-0 this season), 69-5 when leading with 5 minutes left (32-0), 56-10 when outrebounding an opponent (29-3), 42-15 when forcing more turnovers (22-1), 52-8 when shooting 45% or better from the field (25-2), 67-7 when outshooting an opponent (31-1), 23-4 when shooting 40% or better from 3-point range (10-0), 62-8 when outshooting an opponent from 3-point range (321-0), 34-12 when shooting 75% or better from the free throw line (16-0), 46-15 when winning the bench scoring battle (22-1), 49-16 when four or more players score in double figures (23-2) and 25-3 when five or more players score in double figures (11-0)

Prediction and analysis

Spread: Florida -1 | O/U: 140.5

There has been a lot of love for Houston coming out of the Final Four given the way it not only shut down Duke defensively but rallied with gusto for one of the greatest comebacks in the history of the national semifinals. It was so noteworthy that it seems as if many forgot what Florida did in the preceding game eliminating down one of the top three players in college basketball this season while overcoming an 8-point halftime deficit to stymie Auburn and storm into the national championship game.

The Gators have the best player — not just in this game but the NCAA Tournament and arguably the season — in Clayton, who put together two of his most dominant career performances in the Elite Eight and Final Four. Martin came alive against AU, which probably means it is Richard’s time to shine Monday night for Florida. Even with Condon playing terribly, he will not go up against anywhere near as tough of a player as Johni Broome in this matchup; plus, Haugh has remained stellar when replacing Condon — and really, Golden should consider either starting Haugh or playing him far more minutes apples to apples.

The vast majority of prognosticators are picking the Cougars. Let them. They have bought into the defensive excellence and the underdog storyline ignoring that the Gators were the hottest team coming into March Madness and probably should have been the No. 1 overall seed. Against five common opponents this season (Alabama, Arizona State, Auburn, Tennessee, Texas Tech), Florida went 8-1 while Houston went 3-3. Furthermore, UF is 13-0 in neutral site games this campaign — and there is no question it has battled through a far tougher conference — considered by many to be the single best season for any league in the history of the sport.

The idea is that Houston will hold Florida below 70 points. The Gators are averaging 87.6 points per game since Feb. 4 and allowing 73.4 in the NCAA Tournament. The Cougars, meanwhile, are averaging 72.0 points and just allowed Gonzaga to score 76 in the second round. While it’s possible Houston wins this game, its ability to hold down Duke does not mean it will have the same success against Florida. Meanwhile, as we have seen all season, the Gators just find ways to win no matter what type of game they need or play or how much they are backed up against the wall. And that’s what should happen Monday with the game eclipsing the low total if it transpires in that manner.

2024-25 records: 2-3 ATS, 4-1 O/U

Final Four bracket

(1) Florida 79, (1) Auburn 73 || (1) Florida vs. (1) Houston
(1) Houston 70, (1) Duke 67

West Region bracket

Sweet 16 || Elite Eight

(1) Florida 87, (4) Maryland 71 || (1) Florida 84, (3) Texas Tech 79
(3) Texas Tech 85, (10) Arkansas 83

Round 1 || Round 2

(1) Florida 95, (16) Norfolk State 69
(8) UConn 67, (9) Oklahoma 59 || (1) Florida 77, (8) UConn 75

(12) Colorado State 78, (5) Memphis 70 || (4) Maryland 72, (12) Colorado State 71
(4) Maryland 81, (13) Grand Canyon 49

(11) Drake 67, (6) Missouri 57
(3) Texas Tech 82, (14) UNC Wilmington 72 || (3) Texas Tech 77, (11) Drake 64

(10) Arkansas 79, (7) Kansas 72 || (10) Arkansas 75, (2) St. John’s 66
(2) St. John’s 83, (15) Omaha 53