Florida vs. Tulane prediction, pick, 2024 Gasparilla Bowl preview: Where to watch, TV channel, time, odds

Image Credit: Michael Nash

Following three straight wins to end the 2024 regular season with an unforeseen surge in recruiting, momentum has been firmly behind the Florida Gators over the last two months. Head coach Billy Napier aims to continue pushing forward Friday afternoon when facing the Tulane Green Wave at the 2024 Gasparilla Bowl at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida.

While perhaps not the exact bowl game the Gators expected to be playing given their 7-5 record and pair of top 25 victories late in the season, it is an exciting matchup for older fans and those who enjoy history given Florida and Tulane were one-time SEC rivals before the latter left the conference ahead of the 1966 season.

UF does benefit by playing close to home ahead of the holiday season, which Napier insinuated last week he was using to motivate his players ahead of Friday’s tilt.

“Our guys were excited when we found out we were going to be in Tampa. It was a big deal and to play on the 20th, I mean, we’d be lying if we weren’t happy with that,” he said. “These guys have an opportunity to finish the right way in our state, then be home for Christmas and have a couple weeks off before we get back out in January.”

The Gators should benefit from a crowd firmly in its camp given the proximity of Tampa to Gainesville, though it’s unlikely that will ultimately play a role in the game’s outcome. Rather, Napier is focused on Florida not taking a step back from the level of play it was executing in late November.

“We’ve gotten to a place where we think we could beat anybody,” he said. “This team has a ton of confidence. That comes from the work. They realize the results that they’ve gotten are because of the mindset and the approach they’ve taken towards the work.

“We’ve seen that carry over. A lot of other things have happened in a positive light as well. [National] Signing Day went well. We’ve been able to retain a huge portion of our roster for next year, and then obviously, we’ll be adding a few more pieces here down the stretch.”

While the Gators have indeed kept some significant players — particularly along the offensive line with redshirt junior center Jake Slaughter (a newly minted first-team All-America selection) and redshirt junior tackle Austin Barber both deciding to return — they have also lost a bevy of starers and backups in the defensive front seven.

Among those not playing who were expected to suit up are defensive linemen senior Cam Jackson and redshirt junior Caleb Banks, offensive linemen redshirt senior Brandon Crenshaw-Dickson and redshirt junior Damieon George Jr., and sophomore cornerback Cormani McClain.

UF has struggled at the opening of the transfer portal failing to bring in headline talent as has been the case consistently under Napier, but none of those players would be suiting up Friday anyway, so it’s a rather moot point when it comes to the preparation for Tulane.

“Nothing surprises me anymore,” Napier said of the transfer portal and player retention process. “… Until they show up for class in January, you know, it’s not a done deal, right? In a perfect world, you would have some type of document you could sign that would kind of lock them in, but we don’t have that, so we still have some work to do.”

What’s more important against the Green Wave is the likes of freshmen quarterback DJ Lagway and running back Jadan Baugh continuing to show out. Lagway will be the fourth true freshman signal caller in program history to start a bowl game for the Gators, while Baugh has an opportunity to continue his breakout campaign. Rushers senior Montrell Johnson Jr. and redshirt juniro Ja’Kobi Jackson will similarly be dressed to impress, as will senior wide receivers Elijhah Badger and Chimere Dike, who will get one last chance to create some highlights for scouts ahead of preparation for the 2025 NFL Draft.

What will go down Friday afternoon? Let’s find out.

Tale of the tape

	Florida Gators	Tulane Green Wave
Head coach	Billy Napier	Jon Sumrall
Record	7-5	9-4
Conference	SEC	AAC

Injuries & absences

Previously questionable (2): LB Grayson Howard, OL Roderick Kearney
Prevoiusly out (3): CB Devin Moore, DB Asa Turner, OL Devon Manuel
Out (6): OL Damieon George, OL Brandon Crenshaw-Dickson, DL Cam Jackson, DL Caleb Banks, CB Cormani McClain, DB Jameer Grimsley
Out for season (7): DB Aaron Gates (knee), WR Eugene Wilson III (hip), RB Treyaun Webb (leg), CB Jason Marshall Jr. (shoulder), QB Graham Mertz (knee), WR Kahleil Jackson (knee), DL Jamari Lyons (ankle)

Transfer portal (13): WR Andy Jean, DE Justus Boone, DE Quincy Ivory, OL Mike Williams, CB Ja’Keem Jackson, DL Kelby Collins, OL Christian Williams, TE Arlis Boardingham, LB Deuce Spurlock II, K Adam Mihalek, DE Jack Pyburn, TE Gavin Hill, DE T.J. Searcy

Where to watch Florida vs. Tulane

Game: 2024 Gasparilla Bowl
Date: Friday, Dec. 20 | Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
Location: Raymond James Stadium — Tampa, Florida [75,000]

TV: ESPN2 (Anish Shroff, Andrew Ware, Paul Carcaterra)
Live stream: ESPN+ | SiriusXM: 139/204 | Radio: TuneIn
Live updates: @OnlyGators on Twitter

Game notes

» Florida is 13-6-2 all-time against Tulane. The Gators have won 11 straight games in the old rivalry against their former SEC foe going unbeaten in the series from 1958-69 with a pair of wins in the 1980s. The sides will meet Friday for the first time in 40 years (1984).
» UF lost its only other Gasparilla Bowl appearance, 29-17 to UCF in 2021.
» Florida is 24-24 all-time in bowl games with three straight losses not having won such a game since 2019.
» The Gators defense forced turnovers in 11 of 12 games this season, including a streak of nine straight, with multiple takeaways in 10 of those contests.
» Florida is 14-6 at home, 4-9 on the road and 0-4 in neutral-site games under Napier (4-13 away from home). Dating back to the prior regime, Florida is on a 4-19 drought away from The Swamp with a 4-14 mark in its last 17 true road games.
» The Gators under Napier are 12-0 when allowing 20 points or fewer, 15-2 when leading after the third quarter, 14-5 when leading at halftime, 15-6 when scoring first and 14-5 when rushing for at least 150 yards. However, UF is 3-14 under Napier when opponents score first, 1-12 when scoring less than 21 points, 5-19 when allowing 21+ points, 4-14 when tied or trailing at halftime, 3-17 when tied or trailing after the third quarter and 4-13 when being outrushed.
» Florida is 4-14 against AP Top 25 teams under Napier, 3-9 over the last two seasons and 2-5 this season. That drought extends to 10-22 against ranked opponents (2-9 vs. top five teams, 6-12 vs. top 10 teams) since 2018. In that same span, UF is 40-13 against unranked opponents.
» The Gators have scored in 460 consecutive games, an NCAA record.

Prediction and analysis

Spread: Florida -10 | O/U: 50.5

This spread has been all over the place moving from 8.5 to 14 to now 10 on game day. Bowl games are immensely unpredictable, and both sides have lost key pieces entering Friday afternoon’s showdown. The Gators are down a literal handful of players in the defensive front seven, while the Green Wave will be without their top two quarterbacks. That leaves the electric Ty Thompson at the helm, a run-first signal caller who has thrown 77 total passes (comlpeting 62.3% of them) in a four-year career that started at Oregon.

Tulane rolled through most of its AAC schedule, but it went 0-2 against Power Four teams and 0-2 to end the season with double-digit losses to Memphis and Army. Florida obviously enters on a three-game winning streak, but it is 0-4 under Napier in neutral site games and 4-13 away from home. Napier is 2-2 in bowl games but 0-4 against the spread. He also stated that he was not planning to maximize the Gators’ practice time, which leads one to wonder how seriously the program is treating this game.

In other words, you would be a crazy person to actually pick this game. What’s apparent is that Florida has nearly its entire year-end starting offense healthy with a plethora of running backs at its disposal and Lagway another month healed from his hamstring injury. The Gators defense was also ferocious down the stretch, and with younger players getting additional playing time up front, there should be plenty of energy and effort to get after Thompson.

Forced to play the game, Florida is the side to back, but it’s tough to see it being a high-scoring affair unless the Gators get ahead big and pile on the points, so the under is preferred. Remember: UF is 5-1 against unranked opponents and 3-0 against unranked nonconference opponents this season winning those latter games by an average of 23 points.

2024 records: 8-3-1 ATS, 7-5 O/U

Odds & ends

» Uniforms: Florida will wear blue jerseys, orange pants and orange helmets.