Florida vs. Kentucky prediction, pick, preview: Where to watch, TV channel, game time, odds, spread

Football

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Image Credit: Michael Nash

The Florida Gators wasted their opportunity at a season turnaround on the road last week, but coming back home to the friendly confines of Ben Hill Griffin Stadium presents a chance to enter the second and final off week of the season with some momentum. That plus the employment future of head coach Billy Napier are on the line Saturday as the Florida Gators welcome the Kentucky Wildcats into The Swamp.

Florida enters having lost three straight to Kentucky with Napier 0-2 against head coach Mark Stoops in his career. No Gators coach has ever lost three in a row to the Wildcats, and UF as a program has not dropped four consecutive games in this series since the Korean War.

That is why this is an employment-defining game for Napier. Expectations were lowered for Florida entering the season given roster turnover and a murderer’s row of opponents over the second half of the season, but the Gators were still expected to start off well. That has not been the case despite some defensive improvement making it appear as if UF has turned a corner on that side of the ball.

Complicating matters are the absences of redshirt senior quarterback Graham Mertz (torn ACL, out for the season) and senior running back Montrell Johnson Jr. (lower body), Florida’s top offensive players and leaders. Freshman DJ Lagway steps in for Mertz playing the most important football of his young career, and while he has flashed in limited playing time, this is a significant step up in competition for an entire game.

A victory Saturday would send the Gators into the break with a winning record and belief that it can compete against the remainder of its schedule. A loss would almost certainly put an end to Napier’s tenure, even if he retains his job through the end of the regular season.

What will go down Saturday night? Let’s find out.

Tale of the tape

Injuries & absences

Notably active (2): RB Treyaun Webb, OL Austin Barber
Questionable (1): DB Bryce Thornton
Out (11): RB Montrell Johnson Jr. (lower body), DB Asa Turner (knee), LS Rocco Underwood, CB Ja’Keem Jackson, TE Tony Livingston, WR Marcus Burke, WR TJ Abrams, LB RJ Moten, RB KD Daniels, OL Devon Manuel, OL Roderick Kearney
Out for season (3): QB Graham Mertz (knee), WR Kahleil Jackson (knee), DL Jamari Lyons (ankle)

Where to watch Florida vs. Kentucky

Date: Saturday, Oct. 19 | Time: 7:45 p.m. ET
Location: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium — Gainesville, Florida [88,548]

TV: SEC Network (Dave Neal, Aaron Murray, Marilyn Payne)
Live stream: ESPN+ | SiriusXM: 106/190 | Radio: WRUF, TuneIn
Live updates: @OnlyGators on Twitter

Game notes

» Florida is 53-21 all-time against Kentucky with wins in 33 of the last 37 meetings and a 29-6 mark in The Swamp.
» Napier is 0-2 against UK becoming the first coach to lose twice in this series since Doug Dickey in the 1970s. (Dickey lost three times, including consecutive games in 1976-77.) UF has lost three straight games to its former SEC East rival for the first time since 1948-51.
» After allowing 24+ points in eight straight games against FBS / Power Four opponents, the Gators have held their last two opponents to an average of 18 points.
» UF is 11-6 at home, 3-8 on the road and 0-3 in neutral-site games under Napier.
» The Gators under Napier are 8-0 when allowing 20 points or fewer, 13-2 when leading after the third quarter, 12-4 when leading at halftime and 11-4 when rushing for at least 150 yards. However, UF is 3-12 under Napier when opponents score first, 1-10 when scoring less than 21 points, 5-17 when allowing 21+ points, 1-15 when tied or trailing after the third quarter and 3-12 when being outrushed.
» Florida is 2-12 against AP Top 25 teams under Napier, 1-7 over the last two seasons. That drought extends to 8-20 against ranked opponents (2-7 vs. top five teams, 5-11 vs. top 10 teams) since 2018. In that same span, UF is 40-13 against unranked opponents.
» The Gators have scored in 454 consecutive games, an NCAA record.

Prediction and analysis

Spread: Florida +3 | O/U: 41.5

The Gators’ defensive improvement has been clear over the last two weeks, and while they have lost numerous starters to injury, young players are stepping up and making plays. That is key against a stingy Wildcats team that has gone 1-3 against SEC competition with an average score in those games of 12.8-20.1. Kentucky held Lane Kiffin’s offense to 20 points in a win and Georgia to 13 points in a loss. The only way Florida win this game is by stopping the run, which would keep UK in check, while learning on its offense.

That obviously becomes problematic for the Gators with their top two players (Mertz, Johnson) sidelined. Lagway flashed starting against Samford and throughout limited SEC action, but taking 70 snaps against a defense like the Wildcats will bring into The Swamp is a tall task. Similarly, the inconsistent usage of wide receivers sophomore Eugene Wilson III and redshirt freshman Aidan Mizell — despite both proving they can be game breakers — has been frustrating.

Florida getting a field goal in The Swamp is the obvious and appropriate play. Not only could the Gators win outright, the Wildcats have not defeated a Power Four team by more than that margin this season. The total has slid down three points from open (44.5), which creates a lean on the over.

2024 records: 3-3 ATS, 4-2 O/U

Odds & ends

» Uniforms: Florida will wear traditional blue jerseys, white pants and orange helmets for the fifth of six times this season.

» Welcome back: The 1984 Florida football team will be recognized inside The Swamp on Saturday. That team went 9-1-1, claimed the first SEC championship in program history and was named national champion by multiple sets of computer rankings. However, UF had its SEC title stripped due to NCAA rules violations, it was banned from playing in a bowl game, and a potential national title went unclaimed. The team has largely gone unrecognized for its accomplishments in Gainesville over the last 40 years.