Florida vs. Kentucky prediction, pick, preview: Where to watch, TV channel, odds, spread, time

Image Credit: Michael Nash

The Florida Gators rebounded from the firing of head coach Billy Napier with a serious effort in their first contest under interim coach Billy Gonzalez. Still, it was not enough to put another notch in the win column of a lost season due to failures on and off the field alongside an ever-growing injury list. Florida is looking to regroup this week against a struggling Kentucky Wildcats team that has flashed but largely fallen short on its own this season.

At this point, all eyes are on the Gators’ coaching search, which is moving along glacially, given how early in the season Napier was canned. Florida is hoping to fill its leadership vacancy shortly after the regular season concludes, but for now, it’s a waiting game to see what happens with coaches across the country.

In the meantime, the Gators are focused on the Wildcats, and no one will be more incumbent to a positive performance than sophomore quarterback DJ Lagway, who, to this point, has played far below expectations in his second season — not just in terms of production but overall development.

“The biggest thing for DJ is to continue to relax,” Gonzales said. “… We just got to let him play, get him in the flow of things. He’s a very talented young man.”

Florida has been one of the worst “middle eight” teams this season, seemingly getting defeated week after week during the final four minutes of the first half and first four minutes of the second half. Gonzales actually addressed that issue on Monday, saying the Gators are focused on winning that portion of the game to up their chances of victory.

The other focus for Gonzales this week has been recognizing players internally to build unity and confidence within the team unit. This was done not only by coaches singling out players but also by players respecting their peers, particularly underclassmen who have stepped up due to injury this season.

Whether any of this will ultimately impact Florida’s performance remains to be seen, but the team does appear to have stayed together amid another difficult season.

What will go down Saturday night? Let’s take a closer look with this game day preview.

Florida vs. Kentucky: Tale of the tape

	Florida Gators	Kentucky Wildcats
Head coach	Billy Gonzales (0-1)	Mark Stoops
Record	3-5 (2-3)	3-5 (4-5)
Conference	SEC	SEC

Injuries & absences

Active: (5): S Jordan Castell, CB Devin Moore, CB Cormani McClain, TE Tony Livingston, RB Duke Clark
Probable (2): WR Vernell Brown III, WR Aidan Mizell
Out (12): WR Eugene Wilson III, RB Ja’Kobi Jackson, LB Grayson Howard, DL Caleb Banks, DL LJ McCray, WR Taylor Spierto, LB Ty Jackson, DB Javion Toombs, DB Michael Caraway Jr., RB Treyaun Webb, WR Kahleil Jackson, OL Fletcher Westphal
Out for season (3): WR Dallas Wilson (foot), CB Dijon Johnson (knee), DB Aaron Gates (shoulder)

The Gators’ injury list somehow got worse during and after the off week. It’s rather remarkable, actually. At one point this week, it appeared as if Brown, Mizell and Tre Wilson might all miss the game in addition to Dallas Wilson, who suffered a season-ending foot injury on one catch against Georgia. Instead, it is just the Wilsons that will be out with Tre Wilson absent after arguably his best performance in two years.

In addition to its on-field issues, Florida’s injury list has tanked its ceiling this season. Listed as out this week are eight would-be starters (one-third of such players) and at least two top reserves.

Where to watch Florida vs. Kentucky

Date: Saturday, Nov. 8 | Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Location: Kroger Field — Lexington, Kentucky [61,000]

TV: SEC Network (Tom Hart, Jordan Rodgers, Cole Cubelic)
Stream: ESPN app | SiriusXM: 374 | Radio: WRUF, TuneIn
Live updates: @OnlyGators on Twitter

Florida vs. Kentucky game notes

» Florida leads the all-time series 54-21 with a 22-12 record in Lexington and victories in 34 of the last 38 meetings. The Gators had won 31 straight from 1987-2017, but the series has flipped since, as they have lost four of the previous seven meetings since 2018 with a 1-2 record in Lexington.
» Interim coaches at UF are 14-10 all-time and 3-4 against ranked opponents.
» Florida opened 1-3, not previously starting with that poor of a record through the first four games of a season in 39 years (1986).
» The Gators entered the 2025 season with the toughest schedule in the nation for the second straight year. UF’s 2024 slate was the most difficult in college football history at the start of the campaign, and its 2025 slate is on its way to remaining the most difficult at the conclusion of the year, too.
» The Gators this season played four straight top 10 teams for the first time in program history, going 1-3 in those games. No other FBS program has faced such a stretch since 1968.
» The defense has forced turnovers in 18 of the last 20 games with multiple takeaways in 14 of those contests. A 12-game takeaway streak came to an end in Week 4.
» Florida held opponents to 20 points or fewer in seven straight games but has since given up 21+ points in five consecutive games. The Gators were 14-0 under Napier when allowing 20 points or fewer before losing back-to-back games in Weeks 2-3. UF is now 14-2 since Napier was hired in that situation.
» Florida is 18-6 at home, 4-12 on the road and 1-5 in neutral-site games since the start of Napier’s tenure (5-17 away from home). It has a 4-17 mark in its last 21 true road games dating back to the prior regime. UF is 0-4 away from home this season.
» The Gators since Napier took over are 19-2 when leading after the third quarter, 18-6 when leading at halftime, 18-8 when scoring first and 18-5 when rushing for at least 150 yards. However, UF is 3-17 since Napier was hired when opponents score first, 1-17 when scoring less than 21 points, 7-22 when allowing 21+ points, 4-18 when tied or trailing at halftime, 3-22 when tied or trailing after the third quarter and 4-17 when being outrushed.
» Florida is 5-18 against AP Top 25 teams since the start of Napier’s tenure, 4-13 over the last three seasons. That drought extends to 11-26 against ranked opponents (2-13 vs. top five teams, 7-16 vs. top 10 teams) since 2018. In that same span, UF is 42-14 against unranked opponents.
» The Gators have scored in 469 consecutive games, an NCAA record.

Florida vs. Kentucky prediction, analysis

Spread: Florida -3 | O/U: 44.5

There’s no telling what happens Saturday night as neither team has offered a clear picture of its capability this season. Florida beat Texas and should have defeated Georgia, while Kentucky hung with the former and got whipped by the latter, yet beat Auburn on the road and put up 35 points against Tennessee. The Gators have been a terrible road team (4-12) since Napier was hired, and they are 0-4 away from home this season. However, those games were at No. 3 LSU, No. 4 Miami, No. 5 Texas A&M and No. 5 Georgia at a neutral site.

Then again, Florida also lost to South Florida, and it barely beat a Mississippi State team that should have been a clear victory. So there’s no real trust in the Gators on a game-to-game basis. With a field-goal spread and one of the best kickers in college football, the Gators should be able to cover even if they struggle to find the end zone with regularity. The Wildcats have scored 14 or fewer points in four of six games against SEC opponents. Should that hold up Saturday, UF would need to win 31-14 to exceed the total. That’s possible but not likely, either, so let’s lean toward the under.

2025 record*: 5-3 ATS, 6-2 O/U

* Only Gators last week was 1 yard away from being 13-3 combined on the season. 🤣

Odds & ends

» Uniforms: Florida will wear its traditional uniform at Kentucky, donning white jerseys, orange pants and orange helmets. The Gators are 7-1 in this combination against the Wildcats over the last 30 years.