Why is Florida keeping Billy Napier? Gators try to cool coach’s seat amid myriad uncertainties

Image Credit: Bryce Mitchell, UAA

Billy Napier will return as head coach of the Florida Gators in 2025. This much appears certain after athletic director Scott Stricklin strangely released what was basically a vote-of-confidence statement on a random Thursday with the Gators sitting 4-4 now three months into the 2024 season.

The prevailing sentiment, of course, has largely fallen around one word: “Huh?!” Perhaps another: “Why?!”

Why would Florida offer unprompted confidence in coach currently sitting 15-18 (8-13 SEC) with a 2-13 record against AP Top 25 opponents and a 1-10 mark against his team’s most notable rivals?

Why are the Gators comfortable standing pat this offseason despite Napier being well on his way to becoming the first coach to lead the program to three straight losing seasons since before World War II (Josh Cody, 1936-38)?

Why does Florida’s athletic administration believe the team will be better off under Napier in 2025 despite all prior evidence from his tenure pointing to the contrary?

Let’s take a look at the reasons why Napier is set to remain with the Gators next season — in no particular order. (Only Gators will do our best not to include a 13th.)

The buyout and the university

If Florida moved on from Napier after this season, it would have needed to open up its coffers to the tune of $26 million paying the second-largest coaching buyout in college football history (Jimbo Fisher, $75 million). That’s before adding the costs of staff buyouts, programmatic changes and potential buyout payments for a new coach and his staff, which could have ballooned that sum to as much as $40 million or $50 million. (There is $20 million more for which UF will need to account as outlined below.)

While the Gators had at least Napier’s portion of the buyout covered via booster commitments early in the season, spending such a significant sum given the current state of the university became a difficult proposition. Florida currently exists with an interim president in Kent Fuchs following the scandal-ridden tenure of Ben Sasse, who resigned for personal reasons.

Fuchs not only hired current athletic director Scott Stricklin, whose job is — or at least should be — directly tied to that of Napier, he may not have the power to remove Stricklin from his post. Such a move would be necessary first step before the Gators hire another football coach as Stricklin simply cannot be afforded that opportunity given his seeming failures thus far replacing coaches across the entire athletic department. To that end, if this was left up to Stricklin, retaining Napier was literally his only workable option.

The roster and DJ Lagway

Speaking of people tied to Napier, there may be no one more important to the immediate future of the program than freshman quarterback DJ Lagway. The former five-star prospect and breakout first-year player for Florida has close familial ties to Napier and remained staunchly committed to the Gators over offers from numerous other top-tier programs in better position to win immediately.

Given Lagway is Florida most important freshman since Tim Tebow — and the most important player on the entire roster — keeping him in the fold may not be an at-all-costs proposition, but it is certainly close to being one. Even beyond Lagway, though, the Gators have substantial NIL funds committed to freshmen from the Class of 2024. Former five-star defensive lineman LJ McCray and four-star linebacker Myles Graham are among such players Florida believes will be key contributors in 2025.

With the Gators being hit hard by transfer portal defections — particularly following the 2023 season — maintaining their roster and finding a level of continuity by recommitting to those players could be a substantial benefit to the program.

Napier and many of the players have claimed the locker room is stronger than it ever has been under his leadership, and the ferocity with which Florida has played since its slow start to the season shows buy in from the team that Napier frankly struggled to achieve through his first two campaigns. Maintaining that is of the utmost importance.

The recruiting and transfer landscapes

Perhaps even more concerning than the Gators’ play on the field this season — substantial injuries and an immensely difficult schedule have been tough obstacles to overcome — has been the lack of movement in recruiting for the Class of 2025. Florida has lost some of its previously top-committed players and presently sits No. 51 in 247Sports team rankings.

While the Gators had made progress in recruiting under Napier going from 17th in his 2022 transition class to 12th in 2023 and seventh in 2024, prospects have been wary about committing to join Florida next season fro two primary reasons: (1) level of play, (2) coaching instability.

If Stricklin was planning to retain Napier no matter the team’s record at the end of 2024, offering his vote of confidence at this earlier juncture was sensible as a means of attempting to create momentum both in recruiting prospects and pursuing players from the transfer portal. Instability concerns can now be answered by the coaching staff, and Napier can point to the Gators’ improved play over the last five games — despite their obstacles — as the program moving in a positive direction.

Whether that will lead to Florida piecing together a respectable class — or at least filling in gaps by convincing some of the most talented prospects from the portal to join the program — remains to be seen. (UF will need to make substantial financial commitments to ensure both are possible while simultaneously helping Napier retain his current players.)

But again, if the Gators were planning to keep Napier no matter what, they needed to maximize their potential recruiting pitches — especially given the truncated timelines and adjusted landscapes of not only recruiting and the portal but the College Football Playoff.

The replacements

If Florida was going to move on from Napier, equally as important would be determining who would replace him. By committing to Napier, the Gators are simultaneously deciding to punt on this coaching cycle — one in which UF almost certainly would have been the top job available.

Only Gators long maintained that, if Florida took the extraordinary step to fire Napier following his second season, former Washington head coach Kalen DeBoer was an all-too-obvious target. DeBoer was taken off the market by Alabama. Similarly, ties between former Arizona coach Jedd Fisch and UF have long been known; Fisch wound up replacing DeBoer with a somewhat-complicated buyout likely taking him out of play this cycle as well.

Part of committing to Napier should have been an extended internal conversation about the batch of potentially available coaches this cycle. Did those talks occur, and if so, was it determined that there were either no desired replacements or enough intriguing coaches who would likely be available in 2026?

Let’s take a look at some of the names bandied about by fans and media along with a couple Only Gators believed should have been targeted by the Gators this cycle had Napier been fired (tagged with “OG” below).

Lane Kiffin, Ole Miss coach: The top option for Florida fans given their desire to see exciting offense back in The Swamp, Kiffin is still young (49) and has been successful in the midst of his fifth straight winning season. Still, he has yet to get over the hump with the Rebels despite a significant financial commitment to talent and his contract. Kiffin is set to earn $9 million next season from Ole Miss, and to pry him away, Florida would have needed to make a coach who has yet to compete in the CFP one of the highest-paid program leaders in the nation. There remain some off-field questions about Kiffin, too, but he should still be available for 2026 now that UF Is not immediately interested.

James Franklin, Penn State coach: Pushed more by media than fans, Franklin clearly has a ceiling as a coach. He’s worked at a top-three Big Ten team (pre-expansion) for 11 seasons and basically lost every rivalry game to the top two teams while never finishing better than seventh in the AP Top 25. Would he be a great hire for the purposes of making Gators football respectable again? Absolutely. But at a school like Florida, do you hire a coach for respectability or championship contention? Unless the calculus has changed — and perhaps that will be the case after 2025 — to this point it has only been the latter. Franklin could lose his job this offseason; if not, he would likely still be available for 2026.

Curt Cignetti, Indiana coach [OG]: His winning acumen is apparent having led Indiana to a 9-0 start in his first season (despite a weak level of competition) coming off an 11-1 record at James Madison. Cignetti is a winner, period, but he’s also 63-years-old and unproven against top competition. Should the Hoosiers blow through the rest of their schedule and make the playoff, timing his hiring would have been difficult. By passing on Cignetti now, it’s quite possible he commits to a program like Penn State and gets taken off the market this cycle. Would not expect him to be available in 2026.

Marcus Freeman, Notre Dame coach [OG]: You saw it happen with Brian Kelly leaving for LSU, and our belief has been that Freeman will ultimately decide it is in his best interest to take a similar step in his career. Freeman has seen a similar level of success with the Fighting Irish as Kelly (26-8 since being named permanent coach), and sources tell Only Gators he is comfortable with the administration. However, there is a notable ceiling to recruiting at Notre Dame, and the 38-year-old Freeman could be an absolute killer if given the opportunity to steward a program like Florida long term. He could still be available in 2026 … unless another top team makes a change with a similar idea in mind.

Todd Monken, Baltimore Ravens offensive coordinator [OG]: Prepared to be one of the hottest coaching prospects across the football landscape this cycle, Monken has continued his trajectory by leading Lamar Jackson in what looks to be an MVP season. A two-time national championship winner at Georgia, Monken was interviewed for multiple NFL head coaching positions last offseason and would likely prioritize remaining in that league where he’s spent five of his last seven seasons since leaving Southern Miss. He would be a curious hire due to his age (58) and a potential willingness to jump back to the NFL should an opportunity arise. Do not expect him to be available in 2026.

The settlement and the calendar

Athletic departments across the country are faced with the forthcoming reality of needing to pay players directly following the groundbreaking $2.8 billion settlement in House v. NCAA. This as changes to the now-12 team CFP, early signing day and the portal window have significantly altered the offseason calendar and made it more difficult for teams to change coaches.

Florida has been on the wrong side of these types of landscape shifts in college football over the last decade. It was too slow to catch up in the arms race. By the time it did, it was completely unprepared for the portal and NIL — particularly given it hired a brand new coach attempting to run an old playbook despite changes to the dimensions of the field. (Other programs like LSU adapted quicker than UF, but they also had less internally to change simultaneously.)

Beyond the likely settlement, which could lead to the Gators needing to shell out as much as $20 million to players, this is now the calendar within which teams will need to operate when hiring new coaches (2024-25 dates).

• Last regular season game: Nov. 30
• Early signing day: Dec. 4
• Conference championship games: Dec. 7
• Transfer portal opens: Dec. 9 (for 20 days instead of 30)
• CFP begins: Dec. 20
• Transfer portal closes: Dec. 28
• CFP ends: Jan. 20

Let’s use Kiffin as an example for why this schedule is now problematic for not just Florida but any team looking to replace its coach after the season.

If Ole Miss neither qualified for the SEC Championship Game nor playoff, Kiffin would need to be hired within 48 hours just so he could have 48 hours to re-recruit committed players and try to convince others to sign.

If Ole Miss did not qualify for the SEC Championship Game but did make the playoff, Kiffin would either need to leave his team early — despite having a chance to compete for a national title — OR UF would have to wait until signing day passed and the transfer portal was open for 11 days (potentially closed if Ole Miss advanced out of the first round) to make the hire.

Neither of those scenarios even take into account the Gators losing their own players to the portal given changing leadership. Just look at what happened to Alabama and Michigan last year with coaching moves coming way late in the cycle.

What this calendar change basically ensures is that teams looking to hire coaches from contending programs need to potentially make significant sacrifices to their rosters in order to take that chance. Otherwise, they are stuck with hiring coordinators from those schools or coaches from other programs who are willing to either plan departures in season or immediately after their final game concludes.

Adjustments to the calendar may come in time, but for Florida to potentially be faced with such a difficult situation — with so many unknowns still existing — keeping Napier this go-around may have actually saved the program from reentering a death spiral of uncertainty given the chaotic changing landscape.

What it all means

Napier has 12 months to make the Gators a winning team despite Florida going up against a nearly identical 2025 schedule that may well again be ranked toughest in the nation. He will need to do this by retaining his high-priced freshmen talent — of dire importance to this gambit working — salvaging the recruiting class by building it up, attacking the transfer portal with gusto and playing out the 2024 season with the same ferocity the team has showed over the last five games.

There are myriad obstacles to this end starting with other coaches and programs coming after Florida’s players. Given the truncated recruiting window (as outlined above), Napier has less than a month to utilize this vote of confidence in his pitches and even less time to do so in living rooms. Perhaps the focus will instead be the portal, but given the Gators’ mixed success to that end under Napier, it would take quite a leap to believe that will lead to substantial success in 2025.

Did Florida make the right decision?

Only time will tell. That’s the truth. There will be plenty written and uttered about this move meaning Florida accepts mediocrity, Stricklin needs to be fired (Only Gators has maintained that for years, not months) and the program remains directionless. Looking solely at the 15-18 record, that’s a tough-to-argue contention.

However, after diving into the circumstances faced by the Gators from a broader view — even if Stricklin solely made this decision solely to save his job without taking those other factors into consideration — it’s possible that this may not be the worst move for Florida in the long run, even if Napier is canned a year from now.

As was the case with Will Muschamp — but neither Jim McElwain nor Dan Mullen — there are plenty of folks actively rooting for Napier to succeed. By all accounts, he appears to be a good, genuine man with a positive attitude who is intrinsically motivated to not only win but improve his players’ lives. The players on his third roster appear to have bought into what he’s selling. There are far worse coaches to have as stewards of your program.

There is also the potential — as remote as it may seem at this juncture — that Napier actually turns the Gators around next season. He could keep all his star freshmen, salvage the recruiting class, make key additions in the transfer portal, adjust the coaching staff to hire an experienced offensive play caller, maintain consistency on defense, continue learning from his mistakes as a game manager and present a team that not only competes against but beats both top 25 opponents and rivals.

No one should be criticized for believing the odds long that Florida accomplishes all of that over the next 12 months. At the same time, given the chaotic landscape of college football — UF potentially needing to outlay as much as $60 million or $70 million to chance coaches and pay players all at once — and immense uncertainty surrounding the sport — given the insane end-of-season calendar — retaining Napier for at least one more year may wind up being better than the alternative.

The Gators are not the only program coming to such a realization this season.