Florida football vs. LSU: Prediction, pick, line, spread, odds, watch live stream online

By Adam Silverstein
October 5, 2018
Florida football vs. LSU: Prediction, pick, line, spread, odds, watch live stream online
Football

Image Credit: Graphic by Michael Nash

Consecutive Southeastern Conference road victories have the No. 22 Florida Gators ranked and feeling themselves again just in time for the No. 5 LSU Tigers to head to town looking to upset the apple cart. LSU has been playing exceedingly well and enters The Swamp undefeated, while Florida is still looking to atone for an early loss to Kentucky that knocked its comeback bid under new head coach Dan Mullen back a step. What will go down on Saturday afternoon? Let’s take a look at what you need to know and how you can watch Florida-LSU.


Viewing information

Date: Saturday, Oct 6. | Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
Location: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium — Gainesville, Florida [Capacity: 88,548]

TV: CBS Sports (Brad Nessler, Gary Danielson, Jamie Erdahl)
Live stream: CBSSports.com | SiriusXM: 136/192 | Radio: WRUF, TuneIn

Live updates: @OnlyGators on Twitter

Tale of the tape

No. 22 Florida Gators No. 5 LSU Tigers
Head coach Dan Mullen Ed Orgeron
Record 4-1 (2-1 SEC) 5-0 (2-0 SEC)
Conference SEC SEC

Prediction and analysis

Spread: Florida +2 | O/U: 45

This is admittedly a tough one. LSU has started 5-0, but if you look at its five games this season, holes can be poked in all of them. It beat a Miami team starting a turnover-prone quarterback, beat an Auburn team that appears to be overrated by a single point, allowed Louisiana Tech to score 21 points and routed Ole Miss the same way Florida did to Tennessee. The Gators, meanwhile, got rocked at home by now-ranked Kentucky but blasted the two nonconference cupcakes they faced, dominated the Vols and toughed out a big win in Mullen’s return to Mississippi State. Is LSU overrated? Is Florida underrated? What the hell do we make of this game?

The Gators have a lot going for them on Saturday afternoon, including home-field advantage (amp’d up with Florida honoring Tim Tebow and the 2008 national championship team), the first sold out crowd since 2015, a bunch of players who suddenly believe in themselves and an opportunity to get right back into the thick of the SEC race (and beyond). The Tigers’ major advantage? Talent. LSU has out-recruited Florida each of the last few seasons, boasts a stronger defense and has a team that appears to be coming together under Orgeron and defensive coordinator Dave Aranda.

Florida-LSU games have been extremely close as of late, and this should be another one, but with the spread under a field goal, the Tigers appear to be the right side. Expect lots of field goals and the total to stay under, though honestly, both the side and total could go either way in this one. Stay away.

2018 records: ATS picks 2-2 | O/U picks 4-0

Injuries and absences

Out (3): OL T.J. McCoy (leg), WR Jacob Copeland (knee), RB Malik Davis (foot) | Out for season (2): CB Marco Wilson (torn ACL), DB Quincy Lenton (torn Achilles)

Game notes

» Florida is 32-29-3 all-time against LSU and leads the series 15-13-3 inside The Swamp. However, the Gators have lost six of their last eight meetings with the Tigers even though the last four games were all decided by seven points or less. It is the 13th time in the last 15 meetings that both teams are ranked and the 27th time in the last 28 meetings that at least one team is ranked.
» This is the first time in series history that the teams will play consecutive games in the same location. Due to LSU forcing Florida to give up a home game in 2016 after their scheduled contest was postponed by Hurricane Matthew, the Gators are hosting the Bayou Bengals in consecutive seasons.
» The Gators are No. 1 nationally in turnovers forced with 14, just three fewer than the team acquired during the entire 2017 season. Florida has turned those turnovers into 43 points, one short of the 44 it scored off turnovers last season. UF is also second nationally in turnover margin (+9).
» Florida is first nationally in red zone touchdown percentage (.250) with opponents scoring just two in eight trips. The Gators are also second in passing defense (140.0 yards per game) and sixth in passing efficiency defense (97.34).
» The Gators have a 104-19 scoring margin in the first half this season.
» UF has already blocked three kicks this season, which ties it for the national lead and is the most for the program since it swatted six in 2012.
» Florida is 1-0 against ranked opponents this season but is just 5-9 against ranked teams since 2015 and 10-22 since 2011.
» The Gators are 3-0 when they score first, 4-0 entering the fourth quarter with a lead, 3-0 when outrushing their opponents and 2-0 when allowing fewer than 300 yards to an opponent this season.

Odds and ends

» Florida will wear blue jerseys, blue pants, orange helmets and special new Jordan cleats on Saturday. Fans are also being asked to wear all blue to the game.

» The UF-LSU contest is the first sold out game in The Swamp in three years, since Florida hosted Florida State in 2015.

» The Gators are the only team in the nation to win two conference road games through the first five weeks of the 2018 season. They are also one of only three FBS teams to hold a ranked opponent to fewer than 225 total yards in a game this season.

» Florida has scored in 377 consecutive games, an NCAA record.

» The Gators are one of two FBS teams nationally since 2008 (Alabama) to have not lost a single game to a team that ended a season with a losing record.

One Comment

  1. Michael Jones says:

    Really good analysis, Adam. Probably LSU covers and probably the total stays under, but this is one to lay off.

    Go Gators!!!

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