Why Florida’s 2024 schedule, toughest in college football history, is even more difficult than advertised

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When the Florida Gators learned the SEC opponents that would be part of their 2024 college football schedule last June, it was immediately apparent that the program would be faced with an immensely difficult slate. No team in the league was hit harder from two crucial decisions made by the SEC as part of the process.

First, now expanded to 16 teams, the conference chose to maintain an eight-game schedule despite removing divisions in a new 6-1-1 format. Then, it chose to determine opponents — for what was supposed to be a one-off 2024 slate — with a flawed strength of schedule formula mind-bogglingly based on conference winning percentages dating back to 2012.

The result was Florida, which already kneecapped itself by scheduling three Power Four opponents in the nonconference slate, being handed Texas, Texas A&M, Ole Miss and Mississippi State as uncommon former SEC West opponents. This while dropping traditional SEC East matchups against Missouri, South Carolina and Vanderbilt.

Six months later, the SEC dropped the hammer on UF again. Not only would the Gators face the most difficult slate of opponents the conference could offer, they were scheduled to receive both off dates in a five-week span (!) before ending the season with a murderer’s row of consecutive games against preseason No. 1 Georgia, No. 4 Texas, No. 13 LSU, No. 6 Ole Miss and No. 10 Florida State.

Only Gators pontificated for months in 2023 that Florida would not only face the nation’s toughest schedule in 2024 but the most difficult slate of regular-season games in college football history. There has been no metric provided by myriad outlets that have attempted to contextualize the Gators’ schedule that proves otherwise.

Florida will play 11 of 12 games against Power Four opponents with eight of those matchups against preseason top 20 teams (No. 15 Tennessee, No. 19 Miami, No. 20 Texas A&M being the others). Its final five games — without an off week — will all come against preseason top 15 opponents.

To the credit of head coach Billy Napier, he and the program are putting the onus on themselves to thrive against adversity: “We’re running to the challenge. We embrace that.”

And yet, those aforementioned data points do not completely contextualize the comprehensive difficulty of what the Gators will face on a weekly basis. That requires digging deeper into the situational aspect of each matchup, which is exactly what Only Gators has done ahead of the 2024 season.

Week 1 — Florida vs. No. 19 Miami (Aug. 31)

Season opener for both teams. First matchup since 2019. The Gators are 2-1 against the Hurricanes since 2008. Difficulty level: Average | Schedule advantage: None

Week 2 — Florida vs. Samford (Sept. 7)

The Gators squeaked by the Bulldogs 70-52 in 2021, but this is a different UF team. This is the program’s only matchup against a Group of Five opponent in 2024. Difficulty level: Below average | Schedule advantage: None

Week 3 — Florida vs. No. 20 Texas A&M (Sept. 14)

Both teams will be playing a second tough opponent in three weeks to open the season; the Aggies host Notre Dame in Week 1. The teams are 2-2 all-time as SEC opponents. Difficulty level: Average | Schedule advantage: None

Week 4 — Florida at Mississippi State (Sept. 21)

Though the Bulldogs are unranked, they offer one of the nation’s most raucous road environments. MSU will be playing its third of four games at home — none against ranked opponents — while UF will be playing its first road game after facing a pair of top-20 opponents. However, the Gators have won three of the last four meetings and 10 of 14 since 1987. Difficulty level: Average | Schedule advantage: Mississippi State

Week 6 — Florida vs. UCF (Oct. 5)

The Gators enter from their first off week, while the Knights will have hosted Colorado the week prior having been off in Week 4. Florida is 2-0 in Gainesville but lost 29-17 in the 2021 Gasparilla Bowl. Difficulty level: Average | Schedule advantage: Florida

Week 7 — Florida at No. 15 Tennessee (Oct. 12)

The Gators will play their second road top 20 opponent, while the Volunteers may be facing their third if UF is able to succeed in the early portion of the season. UT will not have an off week through the first half of the season, and it will be coming off consecutive road games. Florida has won six of the last seven meetings and 17 of the last 18, though each of Tennessee’s last three wins have come in Knoxville. Difficulty level: Average | Schedule advantage: None

Week 8 — Florida vs. Kentucky (Oct. 19)

The Gators host having just played a top-15 road game, while the Wildcats enter following an off week by hosting Vanderbilt. UK has shockingly won three straight meetings over UF for the first time since 1948-51. Difficulty level: Average | Schedule advantage: Kentucky

Week 10 — Florida vs. No. 1 Georgia (Nov. 2)

Both teams enter the neutral-site showdown in Jacksonville, Florida, from an off week with the Bulldogs having played at Texas in their prior game. The Gators have lost six of the last seven to their fiercest rivals with the last three losses coming by an average of 24 points. Difficulty level: Average | Schedule advantage: None

Week 11 — Florida at No. 4 Texas (Nov. 9)

Win or lose, the Gators will be licking wounds from their toughest game of the year, while the Longhorns will be playing host having just faced Vanderbilt. There is no doubt UT will be the far fresher team for the first meeting between these programs since 1940. Difficulty level: Above average | Schedule advantage: Texas

Week 12 — Florida vs. No. 13 LSU (Nov. 16)

The Tigers will have played consecutive top 20 teams, including rival Alabama, before facing the Gators; however, LSU has a scheduled off week between those games. Meanwhile, Florida will be playing its third straight game against a top 15 opponent and fifth straight Power Four team (LSU faces South Alabama). Florida has lost five straight, six of seven and nine of 11 games to LSU since 2013. Difficulty level: Above average | Schedule advantage: LSU

Week 13 — Florida vs. No. 6 Ole Miss (Nov. 23)

The Gators will play their fourth straight game against a top 15 opponent, while the Rebels will be enjoying a late-season off week. Talk about a disparity of situation. Florida has won its last two meetings with Ole Miss, the last in 2020, and three of four since 2007. Difficulty level: Extreme | Schedule advantage: Ole Miss

Week 14 — Florida at No. 10 Florida State (Nov. 30)

The Gators will play their fifth straight game against a top 15 opponent, while the Seminoles will enjoy home cooking off a cupcake matchup against Charleston Southern. FSU does have two other top 25 games set for the weeks prior, but coupling Florida’s insane slate with the CSU game, there really is no comparison. Difficulty level: Extreme | Schedule advantage: Florida State

Conclusion

It is not just the list of teams and schedule order that makes the Gators’ slate difficult. Florida will be at a distinctive and legitimate disadvantage — before kickoff — over each of its final four games given the way its opponents’ schedules fall. (In fact, it will only have the scheduling advantage against one of 12 opponents all season, UCF.) Putting it all together, UF is not only being tasked with thriving against the most difficult slate of opponents any team will face in 2024, it is being asked to do so in multiple clearly disadvantageous circumstances.

That is why simply referring to the Gators’ schedule as the “toughest in the nation” for 2024 or “most difficult in college football history” is actually selling short the level of adversity that Florida will face over the next 14 weekends.

There is a significant difference between making excuses and stating facts. No matter how well Napier’s squad plays nor how much improvement the Gators show this season, the level of difficulty they face due to decisions made by the SEC and athletic director Scott Stricklin appear to put a ceiling on their potential success. Of course, that’s unless Florida simply exceeds every potential expectation. If it could somehow muster even an 8-4 campaign — considered mediocre most seasons — against the aforementioned slate, that may actually put the Gators in consideration for the expanded 12-team College Football Playoff.

And for those who may be perturbed with how the 2024 schedule shook out but remain confident a respite and potential make-good is coming in 2025? 😂 The SEC actually went back (!) on its one-off schedule proclamation deciding in March that league members will play an identical slate in 2025 with only the home-away alignments switched.