Nate Silver upgrades Florida to likeliest ’14 champ

By Adam Silverstein
March 24, 2014

Statistician Nate Silver, who nailed the 2012 presidential race and has earned well-deserved praise for his rigorous statistical analyses, early Monday morning updated his probabilities for the remainder of the 2014 NCAA Tournament and came away with even better news for Florida Gators fans hoping to see their team win its third national championship – first since 2007.

Silver’s model projects that Florida has an 18.4 percent chance to win the national title (+3.9 percent*), making it the overall favorite in the remaining field. Louisville (16.8 percent) and Arizona (16.5 percent) are the only other teams with winning probabilities above 10 percent.

Silver broke down the Gators’ probability to advance in each individual round of the tournament. Florida has a 71.6 percent chance to move on to its fourth-straight Elite Eight (+9.2 percent), 59.7 percent chance to reach the Final Four (+18.6 percent) and 35.5 percent chance to play in the national title game (+9.4 percent).

With the No. 2 and No. 3 seeds both eliminated in the South Region, UF is the odds-on favorite to represent the team in the Final Four. No. 4 seed UCLA has a 19.2 percent change to win two more games, while No. 10 seed Stanford and No. 11 seed Dayton each have less than an 11 percent chance of winning the Regional Final.

The Gators (34-2) have the nation’s longest active winning streak at 28 games.

Check out the methodology Silver uses to make his NCAA predictions.

* Percent changes based on original probability projections before tournament began.


  1. gatorboi352 says:

    I love that they were ever _not_ the likeliest to win it all. Who better than Florida? If Florida does lose in this tournament, they will have beaten themselves.

  2. ga8or22 says:

    UCLA will be a challenge the Gators SHOULD be able to handle. Michigan State or UVA will not be a cinch.

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