Florida football on trajectory to become next Nebraska; Billy Napier does not appear capable of stopping it

Football

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Image Credit: UAA

The decline of Florida Gators football did not begin with head coach Billy Napier. Some may point to Urban Meyer’s not-so-quiet quitting in 2010 as the inflection point, but a steady stream of coaching mishires, a behind-the-times athletic administration and some legitimate bad luck have sent the Gators spiraling to rock bottom and teetering on irrelevance.

Florida has not won a national title in 16 years. Hell, it hasn’t won a bowl game in five years. It has only competed in the SEC Championship Game once in the last seven years and appears nowhere near capable of doing so again anytime soon.

The Gators have registered three consecutive losing seasons for the first time since 1945-47 — before the advent of color television, credit cards, diet sodas, the Barbie doll and barcodes. A fourth straight losing season appears more than likely; that has not happened since 1935-38 when college sports had coaches (Dennis K. Stanley, Josh Cody) that justified their jobs by leading multiple sports coming out of the Great Depression.

Yes, Florida is down bad. Worst of all is that UF does not presently have a person in place to reverse its fortunes and alter its trajectory. At least not unless Saturday was a substantial aberration — and given the prior two seasons, that certainly does not appear to be the case.

Florida was bludgeoned 41-17 by a No. 19 Miami team that hired its coach, Mario Cristobal, the same year the Gators brought in Napier. Cristobal, whose coaching style is similarly questioned and who had only performed one game better than Napier in the win-loss column through the same two seasons, has proven to be superior in talent acquisition — the one area in which Napier can somewhat hang his hat.

Cristobal brought in his first choice as a transfer quarterback in Washington State’s Cam Ward. Napier settled for his … fifth? … in Wisconsin’s Graham Mertz. Cristobal has won more major recruiting and transfer battles while ensuring the Hurricanes’ NIL infrastructure was at least solid from the jump. Napier took far too long to comprehend the myriad significant changes that have overtaken the sport since 2021.

Perhaps even more notable is that Cristobal has proven to be a better self-evaluator, an area of analysis Napier claims to be critical, though he barely makes changes to his product, persons or process on an annual basis. (This is not a Napier vs. Cristobal issue, of course. There’s no telling whether Miami has turned anything around or simply took advantage Saturday of an ill-prepared, weak-up-front, poorly coached team.)

All of this is a result of Napier’s paralysis by analysis. His immense and constant overthinking across the last three offseasons has led to Florida being slow to evaluate talent, slow to fire and hire assistants, slow to develop NIL and slow to attack the transfer portal. He somehow started the 2024 season still receiving the benefit of doubt from fans and administrators yet threw it all away in two quarters.

Napier still calls the offensive plays, doing so in a maddening fashion that lacks aggressiveness and situational awareness. His offensive coordinator (by title) actually leads an offensive line that has two coaches yet somehow neither recruits top talent nor, you know, plays well. It literally gets pushed around. His failed hiring of a 30-year-old defensive coordinator necessitated the acquisition of that man’s mentor; the duo gave up 41 points in their first outing together Saturday. UF’s style of play is predictable, undisciplined and lacking urgency.

Florida football is in dire straits under Napier. The numbers don’t lie.

• 3 — consecutive losing seasons: First time since 1935-38
• 9-5 — record in The Swamp: Worst through 14 games since Ron Zook (2002-04)
• 2-10 — record away from home: Worst through 12 games since Josh Cody (1936-98)
• 3-10 — record when opponents score first: 77% chance UF loses if it does not start the game with a scoring advantage
• 4-15 — record when allowing 21+ points: 79% chance UF loses if it allows three touchdowns; 101 of 133 FBS teams last season averaged 21+ points per game
• 1-13 — record when tied or trailing after the third quarter: 93% chance UF loses if it does not enter the final period with a scoring advantage
• 2-11 — record against AP Top 25 opponents: UF has lost 85% of its games against the top teams in the nation
• 6 — consecutive games in which UF’s defense allowed a team playing its starting QB to score 33+ points
• 322 — days since UF last won a football game (Oct. 14, 2023)

Even the most successful programs eventually go through downturns. Of the 14 teams that have won national championships since Florida brought home its first in 1996, many have witnessed three consecutive losing seasons, worse records than the Gators and perhaps greater one-off embarrassments. Nebraska, Tennessee and Florida State stand out as those that struggled the most in that span with the Cornhuskers the lone team yet to rebound to any notable level.

For the first time, mentioning Florida among that group — speaking about UF in these terms — is neither hyperbolic nor out of place. Thinking the Gators could be headed toward irrelevancy — as the once-storied Huskers are presently experiencing — is not out of the realm of possibility.

Why?

There seems to be no light at the end of the tunnel for Florida. The situation is bleak. And it has nothing to do with a single notch in the loss column through one week of the 2024 season.

Let’s say the Gators — despite being underdogs in at least eight of 11 remaining games this season (perhaps more) — rebound and finish 6-6, somehow achieving a couple upsets in the process. What program-altering recruits and transfers, presently playing wait-and-see with Florida, are going to sign up to join Napier for a Year 4?

Let’s say Napier fully flames out and the Gators need to replace him. Who, exactly, will be making that decision?

Athletic director Scott Stricklin should have been jettisoned years ago and cannot be allowed to hire a third football coach. Yet the political appointee who briefly served as UF president — while running through millions of dollars and funneling money to his friends — is out. Kent Fuchs is back serving in an interim capacity. Would he fire Stricklin? Is he capable of hiring a replacement? Will he be empowered to do so by the board?

Napier inherited an absolute mess. (The revisionist history spewed about Dan Mullen’s preceding tenure at Florida reached truly ridiculous levels Saturday night.) But he was tasked with rebuilding the program and cleaning up that mess — not reorganizing it in accordion folders like the Penske file.

What good do 107 analysts and staff members serve if a team is unable to recruit top-10 talent and either unwilling to adjust its coaching philosophy or unable to recognize its plainly visible failures? Why are the Gators still behind the eight-ball as an entire program — focused on staff size and unwanted stadium renovations as opposed to NIL and talent acquisition — compared to the rest of the nation’s top teams?

Florida thrived when it was the Pied Piper of college football on and off the field; these days, it plays follow the leader … by half a decade at a time.

Sure, Napier’s top-down rebuild has created an internal structure around the Gators football program that could theoretically set it up to succeed in the future. There’s no doubt he’s a good man, and there’s no doubt he has put in significant work to the best of his ability aimed at achieving success.

And yet, barring a course reversal the likes of which are rarely seen in college football, there simply does not seem to be a realistic path forward under Florida’s current regime. Perhaps the black polo shirts Napier has steadfastly worn for three years have been a harbinger this entire time.

Napier did not initiate the decline of Gators football, but he does not appear capable of stopping it, either.