Florida vs. Vanderbilt: Pick, prediction, odds, line, spread, time, TV, watch live stream

Football

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Image Credit: Michael Nash

The No. 10 Florida Gators may be out of the College Football Playoff picture, but they still have every opportunity to control how they finish the 2019 season beginning with the effort they put forward Saturday when the Vanderbilt Commodores come to town. Last season, Florida’s loss to Georgia snowballed into an embarrassing home loss to Missouri. UF cannot allow that to happen this year, particularly considering Vanderbilt is nowhere near the team Mizzou was a season ago.

The Gators still have plenty on the line in 2019. There is an outside, albeit slim chance to win the SEC East as well as the opportunity to go to a New Year’s Six bowl game, potentially the Orange Bowl in front of a huge swath of their fans. It all starts with a win over the Commodores to clinch bowl eligibility on Saturday afternoon.

What will go down in the game? Let’s find out with plenty of information, notes, analysis and a game prediction for Florida vs. Vanderbilt. Keep on reading for a full against-the-spread breakdown below.

Viewing information

Date: Saturday, Nov. 9 | Time: Noon ET
Location: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium [88,548]

TV: ESPN (Bob Wischusen, Dan Orlovsky, Allison Williams)
Live stream: WatchESPN.com | SiriusXM: 81 | Radio: WRUF, TuneIn
Live updates: @OnlyGators on Twitter

Tale of the tape

Injuries and absences

Questionable (1): DE Jabari Zuniga (ankle)
Out (3): LB Amari Burney (knee), DT Marlon Dunlap (undisclosed), DT Elijah Conliffe (leg)
Out for season (4): QB Feleipe Franks (ankle), CB C.J. McWilliams (Achilles), LB David Reese (Achilles), LB Jeremiah Moon (foot)

Game notes

» Florida is 40-10-2 all-time against Vanderbilt with a 21-2-1 mark in The Swamp and victories in 27 of the last 28 meetings, including five straight.
» The Gators began a season 6-0 for the first time since 2015. LSU ended both undefeated starts for UF in Tiger Stadium. Florida had won 10 straight games for the first time since 2011-12 and did so by a combined 339-96.
» Through its first nine games this season, UF is outscoring opponents 161-66 in the second half and 94-29 in the fourth quarter.
» The Gators are fifth nationally in interceptions (12) but have not had any in consecutive games.
» Florida is 4-3 against ranked opponents under Mullen (3-3 against top 10 teams), beating three ranked teams in a single season in 2018 for the first time since 2012. It is 12-2 against unranked teams under Mullen.
» UF is looking for its first back-to-back 10-win seasons in a decade (2008-09).
» Under Mullen, the Gators are 11-0 when scoring first, 13-0 when leading after the third quarter, 12-0 when allowing 20 points or fewer, 5-1 in games decided by fewer than 10 points and 13-0 when outrushing their opponent.
» Mullen is 4-2-1 against the spread as an underdog at UF.
» Florida had scored 24+ points in 12 straight games for the first time since doing so in 24 consecutive contests from 2007-09. That streak fell last week.
» UF has scored in 394 consecutive games, an NCAA record.
» Florida is one of only two FBS teams (Alabama) that has not lost to an opponent that finished the season with a losing record dating back to the 2008 season.

Prediction and analysis

Spread: Florida -27 | O/U: 49

Despite the improved offensive we have seen from Florida this season, there are few scenarios in which I would back the Gators to cover three-plus touchdowns against a conference opponent. The only team against whom the Commodores fell by this many points or more was LSU back on Sept. 21. Aside from that, Vanderbilt has been able to battle and at least stay in games. Even if Florida does pull away down the stretch, it would not surprise me if it started slow at a noon kickoff following a demoralizing loss last week. The total is not advisable whatsoever, but the lean would be it going over with the Gators winning by a score like 34-17.

2019 records: ATS picks 3-4-2 | O/U picks 5-4

Odds and ends

» Florida will wear traditional blue jerseys and white pants but with white helmets.