Florida vs. Tennessee prediction, pick, preview: Where to watch, TV channel, odds, spread, time

Football

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Image Credit: Michael Nash

For the second time in three weeks, the Florida Gators took a top 10 team to the wire outside Ben Hill Griffin Stadium only to fall short. Finally returning to the friendly confines of Florida Field — for the first time in over a month — the Gators are seething for a victory as the No. 20 Tennessee Volunteers come into town.

Florida has not lost to Tennessee in The Swamp since 2003, and it will be honoring former head coach Urban Meyer’s induction into the College Football Hall of Fame on Saturday night. The Gators may be in the midst of a coaching search, but the team no doubt understands how much pride is on the line with the lights shining bright in Gainesville, Florida.

Sophomore quarterback DJ Lagway stepped up immensely last week, and it will be incumbent on him to do the same if UF has any chance to take down UT and continue its series dominance.

What will go down Saturday night in The Swamp? Let’s take a closer look with this game day preview.

Florida vs. Tennessee: Tale of the tape

Injuries & absences

Questionable (2): WR Vernell Brown III, DB Bryce Thornton
Out (10): DL George Gumbs Jr., DL Michai Boireau, OL Roderick Kearney, RB Ja’Kobi Jackson, DL LJ McCray, LB Ty Jackson, DB Javion Toombs, DB Michael Caraway Jr., WR Kahleil Jackson, OL Fletcher Westphal
Out for season (4): WR Eugene Wilson III (ankle), WR Dallas Wilson (foot), CB Dijon Johnson (knee), DB Aaron Gates (shoulder)
Opted out of season (1): WR Tank Hawkins

Tennessee has six players out compared to 15 for Florida.

Where to watch Florida vs. Tennessee

Date: Saturday, Nov. 22 | Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Location: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium — Gainesville, Florida [88,548]

TV: ABC (Chris Fowler, Kirk Herbstreit, Holly Rowe)
Stream: ESPN app | SiriusXM: 84 | Radio: WRUF, TuneIn
Live updates: @OnlyGators on Twitter

Florida vs. Tennessee game notes

» Florida is 32-22 all-time against Tennessee with victories in 17 of the last 20 meetings and a 17-5 edge all-time in The Swamp. The Gators have won 10 straight meetings on Florida Field.
» Saturday marks the first time UF and UT will play in November since 1955 and the latest meeting to be played as originally scheduled since 1932 (games moved to December in 2001 and 2020).
» Interim coaches at UF are 14-12 all-time and 3-5 against ranked opponents.
» Florida opened 1-3, not previously starting with that poor a record through the first four games of a season in 39 years (1986).
» The Gators entered the 2025 season with the toughest schedule in the nation for the second straight year. UF’s 2024 slate was the most difficult in college football history at the start of the campaign, and its 2025 slate is on its way to remaining the most difficult at the conclusion of the year, too.
» The Gators this season played four straight top 10 teams for the first time in program history, going 1-3 in those games. No other FBS program has faced such a stretch since 1968.
» The defense has forced turnovers in 20 of the last 22 games with multiple takeaways in 15 of those contests. A 12-game takeaway streak came to an end in Week 4.
» Florida has given up 21+ points in seven consecutive games after holding opponents to 20 points or fewer in seven straight games.
» Florida is 18-6 at home, 4-14 on the road and 1-5 in neutral-site games since the start of Napier’s tenure (5-19 away from home). It has a 4-19 mark in its last 23 true road games dating back to the prior regime. UF is 0-6 away from home this season.
» The Gators since Napier took over are 19-3 when leading after the third quarter, 18-7 when leading at halftime, 18-8 when scoring first and 18-5 when rushing for at least 150 yards. However, UF is 3-19 since Napier was hired when opponents score first, 1-18 when scoring less than 21 points, 7-24 when allowing 21+ points, 4-19 when tied or trailing at halftime, 3-23 when tied or trailing after the third quarter and 4-19 when being outrushed.
» Florida is 5-19 against AP Top 25 teams since the start of Napier’s tenure, 4-14 over the last three seasons. That drought extends to 11-27 against ranked opponents (2-13 vs. top five teams, 7-17 vs. top 10 teams) since 2018. In that same span, the Gators are 42-15 against unranked opponents.
» The Gators have scored in 471 consecutive games, an NCAA record.

Florida vs. Tennessee prediction, analysis

Spread: Florida +4 | O/U: 58.5

Most will lean toward the Vols in this matchup and for good reason — their three losses this season have come to Georgia, Alabama and Oklahoma. However, Tennessee’s defense gave up 65 combined points to Mississippi State and Kentucky in road games this season, and Florida has won consecutive home games despite not playing in The Swamp since Oct 18.

That’s an insane stretch of playing away from home — as Only Gators pointed out when the schedule was released — particularly considering everything else working against UF this season from a competition and injury standpoint. UT is also coming off a two-week stretch in which they had a bye and then played New Mexico State. That’s an insane difference of schedule difficulty. There has been a lot of internal motivation for Florida all week, and while bowl eligibility is out the window, it has a chance to win consecutive games in The Swamp against two of its biggest rivals to close the season.

Getting four points in Ben Hill Griffin Stadium is almost insulting the Gators, particularly considering they took Georgia and Ole Miss to the limit. Playing Florida with the points at night in front of a sold out crowd is the obvious play. The total is a much tougher call, but with the Gators being down another pair of top-level defenders and having already allowed an average of 36 points the last two games, the best call is siding with the over.

2025 record: 5-5 ATS, 7-3 O/U

Odds & ends

» Uniforms: Florida will wear its traditional orange helmets with blue jerseys and white pants.