Florida at Texas A&M game: Pick, prediction, spread, odds, line, time, watch live stream, TV channel

By Adam Silverstein
October 10, 2020
Florida at Texas A&M game: Pick, prediction, spread, odds, line, time, watch live stream, TV channel

Image Credit: Michael Nash

Offensive explosions have the No. 4 Florida Gators standing as one of the hottest teams in college football entering their third game of the season, and yet, the team’s questionable defense has analysts and fans wondering if they are indeed legitimate College Football Playoff contenders. Florida will face its toughest test yet on Saturday when it travels to face the No. 21 Texas A&M Aggies at Kyle Field in College Station, Texas.

The Gators’ schedule is only going to get more difficult as the season continues with them playing 10 SEC games for the first time in program history. As such, this game against the Aggies serves as a necessary, timely test for a team that still has a lot to fix before it goes up against the likes of Georgia in one month’s time. And that’s not to say anything about facing Texas A&M on the road being a shoe-in — absolutely not.

Florida is averaging 44.5 points per game to open the season, yet it is only winning games by an average of 15 points. That sounds like a lot, but when a UF defense is allowing nearly 30 points per game to teams like Ole Miss and South Carolina, you know something is wrong. It will be incumbent upon the Gators to get that defense turned around as soon as possible, and there’s no better time than Saturday afternoon on the road in front of a pandemic-diminished but still boisterous crowd of nearly 30,000 fans.

Aspirations of contending for the SEC title and the program’s first opportunity in the CFP will be heavy on Florida’s shoulders each week, including this one. What will go down in Saturday’s game? Let’s find out. Keep on reading for updates, notes, analysis and a game prediction for Florida at Texas A&M.

Viewing information

Date: Saturday, Oct. 10 | Time: Noon ET
Location: Kyle Field — College Station, Texas [27,500]

TV: ESPN (Dave Pasch, Greg McElroy, Holly Rowe)
Live stream: WatchESPN | SiriusXM: 105/191 | Radio: WRUF, TuneIn
Live updates: @OnlyGators on Twitter

Tale of the tape

No. 4 Florida GatorsNo. 21 Texas A&M Aggies
Head coachDan MullenJimbo Fisher

Injuries and absences

Probable / questionable (?): ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Out at kickoff (6): QB Emory Jones (hand/wrist), DL Kyree Campbell (undisclosed), Buck Khris Bogle (undisclosed), DB Jahiri Rogers, DB Kamar Wilcoxson, LB Derek Wingo
Out (3): OL Ethan White (knee), DL Lamar Goods (foot), DB Fenley Graham (arm)
Out for season (1): DB Ethan Pouncey (hip)

Game notes

» Florida has scored 89 points through two SEC games, tying highest-scoring start in league play since 2009. It posted 89 points through two regulations and one overtime to open the 2010 SEC season.
» The Gators are looking to win their seventh straight game and pick up their fifth consecutive SEC victory, which would be their longest streak within the league since 2012.
» Florida’s No. 4 ranking in the AP Top 25 and No. 3 ranking in the Coaches Poll are its highest since Oct. 21, 2012. UF opened the 2020 season ranked No. 5 in the AP Top 25, the team’s first top-five ranking ahead of its first game since 2010.
» The Gators lead the all-time series 2-2 against the Aggies with the teams at a 1-1 mark in SEC play. Florida and Texas A&M has each won on the road.
» Mullen and Fisher are meeting for the first time as head coaches. As assistants, Mullen is 3-1 over Fisher with three straight victories.
» Under Mullen, the Gators are 17-0 when scoring first, 19-0 when leading after the third quarter, 15-0 when allowing 20 points or fewer, 6-1 in games decided by fewer than 10 points and 18-0 when outrushing their opponent.
» Florida is 4-3 against ranked opponents under Mullen (3-3 against top 10 teams), beating three ranked teams in a single season in 2018 for the first time since 2012. It is 18-2 against unranked teams under Mullen.
» The Gators have scored 24+ points in 17 of their last 19 games dating back to 2018.
» Florida has scored 116 offensive touchdowns in 28 games under Mullen. It scored 93 in 38 games from 2015-17.
» The Gators have scored in 400 consecutive games, an NCAA record.
» Florida is one of only two FBS teams (Alabama) that has not lost to an opponent that finished the season with a losing record dating back to the 2008 season.
» UF in 2019 finished a season undefeated in The Swamp for the first time since 2016, third time this decade and 14th time in program history.

Prediction and analysis

Spread: Florida -5 | O/U: 57

It’s been quite tough to get a handle on Florida this season from a game pick perspective due to the team’s lacking defense. Even when it looked like the Gators had things figured out last week midway through the contest, their defense again faltered, and the offense failed to help it out in any meaningful way late in the game. Texas A&M was even with Alabama early in the second quarter, though that was a bit of happenstance. From there, the Aggies were outscored 38-14. This after TAMU, a 31-point favorite, beat Vanderbilt by only five in its opener. Saturday’s line opened at -7 for Florida but immediately fell to -5.5 and has ticked down again. That’s certainly interesting.

The public is heavily on the Gators, and I think that’s for good reason. Kyle Trask should be able to shred the Aggies secondary and meet less resistance from Texas A&M than he did a Will Muschamp-coached South Carolina defense. Texas A&M does have enough offense to put up points on Florida’s shockingly weak defense, but it doesn’t possess the type of firepower to go score-for-score with Saturday’s visitors. At under a touchdown, it makes sense to side with the Gators in this game — and considering the overs are 2-0 this season for UF despite me picking the other way, it’s time to give in to the trend.

2020 records: ATS picks 2-0 | O/U picks 0-2 | Overall: 2-2

Odds and ends

» Florida will wear traditional white jerseys and white pants with orange helmets. It announced earlier in the week that it would wear blue pants. The Gators defeated the Aggies in 2012 wearing this uniform combination.
» A story you will likely hear Saturday is that Trask told the media this week that he believes he was named after Kyle Field, home of Texas A&M. Trask is from Manvel, Texas, which is about 120 miles south of College Station.

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