Statistician Nate Silver, who nailed the 2012 presidential race and has earned well-deserved praise for his rigorous statistical analyses, updated his probabilities for the remainder of the 2014 NCAA Tournament on Sunday evening and came away with even better news for fans of the (1) Florida Gators hoping to see their team win its third national championship – first since 2007.
Silver’s FiveThirtyEight.com model projects that Florida now has a 38.4 percent chance to win the national title (+20.0 percent*), making it the overall favorite in the Final Four. (2) Wisconsin (31.2 percent), (8) Kentucky (19.1 percent) and (7) UConn (11.3 percent) round out the remainder of the field.
The Gators have a 69.9 percent probability to take down the Huskies in their Final Four showdown at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, TX on Saturday at 6:09 p.m., according to Silver, while the Badgers have a 58.2 percent chance to defeat the Wildcats later that evening on the other side of the bracket.
Florida (36-2) has the nation’s longest active winning streak at 30 games.
* Percent change based on original probability projections before tournament began.