Florida basketball drops to No. 9/11 in top 25 polls

By Adam Silverstein
March 4, 2013

The 18th regular season editions of the 2012-13 USA Today and Associated Press Top 25 Polls were released on Monday with Gonzaga becoming the new No. 1 team in the nation after receiving 80-of-96 combined first-place votes.

The Florida Gators, which lost on the road at Tennessee before beating Alabama at home, fell three spots each to No. 9 in the USA Today poll and No. 11 in the AP rankings. Florida lost 74 voting points in the USA Today poll and was deducted 171 points in the AP top 25.

The Gators are the only Southeastern Conference team listed in the top 25 rankings.

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Check out the full top 25 polls and where Florida is on the latest S-curve…

USA TODAY COACHES POLL
This Week 1-5: Gonzaga (29), Indiana, Kansas (1), Duke, Gonzaga
6-10: Louisville (1), Miami, Michigan, Florida, Kansas State
11-15: New Mexico, Michigan State, Ohio State, Oklahoma State, Saint Louis
16-20: Syracuse, Marquette, Arizona, VCU, Memphis
21-25: Wisconsin, Pittsburgh, St. Mary’s, Notre Dame, Oregon

Last Week 1-5: Indiana (28), Gonzaga (3), Duke, Michigan, Kansas
6-10: Florida, Miami, Georgetown, Louisville, Michigan State
11-15: Arizona, Syracuse, Kansas State, New Mexico, Ohio State
16-20: Wisconsin, Memphis, Oklahoma State, Saint Louis, Notre Dame
21-25: Butler, Marquette, St. Mary’s, Akron, VCU

ASSOCIATED PRESS TOP 25 POLL
This Week 1-5: Gonzaga (51), Indiana (7), Duke (5), Kansas, Georgetown (2)
6-10: Miami, Michigan, Louisville, Kansas State, Michigan State
11-15: Florida, New Mexico, Oklahoma State, Ohio State, Marquette
16-20: Saint Louis, Syracuse, Arizona, Oregon, Pittsburgh
21-25: VCU, Wisconsin, UCLA, Notre Dame, Memphis

Last Week 1-5: Indiana (64), Gonzaga (1), Duke, Michigan, Miami
6-10: Kansas, Georgetown, Florida, Michigan State, Louisville
11-15: Arizona, Syracuse, Kansas State, New Mexico, Oklahoma State
16-20: Ohio State, Wisconsin, Saint Louis, Memphis, Butler
21-25: Notre Dame, Marquette, Pittsburgh, Oregon, Louisiana Tech

*Numbers in parenthesis represent first-place votes.

By Jake Sillick – OGGOA Contributor

With the 2013 NCAA Tournament fast approaching, focus turns to selecting and bracketing the event. To many, this may seem like a mysterious process, but the NCAA actually accomplishes it in three phases: selecting the field, ranking the field and then placing those chosen teams on the bracket.

The NCAA first selects the field by choosing 37 at-large teams to go along with the league champions that receive automatic bids.

The committee then next ranks all 68 teams in order. As teams are placed, they are put into a seed list called an “S-curve” (it snakes right to left, then left to right, as seen below). Criteria used for rankings teams are as follows:

» RPI rank
» Strength of schedule rank (non conference and total)
» Record vs. RPI top 50, RPI top 100 opponents
» Bad losses (typically any team ranked 150+ in RPI)
» Rankings in computer systems like KenPom, Sagarin, etc.
» Road/neutral site record
» “Eye test” (personal opinions from watching games)

Here is how Florida ranks is in the aforementioned criteria:

» RPI: 6th (+)
» SOS: 23rd overall (neutral), 7th non-conference (+)
» vs. RPI top 50: 4-3 (-) | vs. RPI top 100: 12-5 (neutral)
» Bad losses: none (+)
» Computer rankings: top-five in most (+)
» Road/neutral record: 9-5 (+)
» Every win by double digits (+)

Placing teams on the bracket: Teams are listed in S-curve order. The first four teams (No. 1 seeds) determine the regions match-ups. Teams are then placed into the region closest to them (based on availability). Being ranked No. 1, No. 5 or No. 9 is best for one-, two- and three-seeds, respectively. When a team in the top 16 is placed, a sub-regional site is assigned, again, based on availability (each site can be assigned twice).

What does this mean for the Gators? With Florida and Miami being two highly-ranked teams that are far away from many sub-regional sites, it is almost assured that they will both play in the closest site (Lexington, KY) for the first two games.

How can the Gators improve their ranking and seeding? Florida can beat Kentucky on the road to close the regular season and go through Missouri (a tournament team) on its way to winning the 2013 SEC Tournament.

8 Comments

  1. Tractorr says:

    How does Michigan State jump us when they lost too?

  2. Michael Jones says:

    Unofrtunately, that’s probably more realistic of a ranking. I suspected that our bombs-away 3 pt line mentality and our inability or refusal to feed Patric Young down low and attack the rim by driving the basketball would eventually catch up with us as the season wore on. We may be able to get a 2 seed if we can finish strong in the SEC tourney, but we should be happy and grateful for either a 2 or a 3 seed in March Madness. All that being said, this team could get hot–especially with Prather getting more minutes–and make some noise in the tournament.

    As always. . . . GO GATORS!!!

  3. Jake Sillick says:

    If anybody has any questions about the S-Curve or bracketology in general, ask away!

  4. Timmy T says:

    Thanks Jake. That’s the first time I’ve seen a model for how the decision making process works.

  5. Mr2Bits says:

    Amazing that Michigan loses to Penn State (who is essentially the same as losing to Santa Fe Women’s Basketball) and doesn’t really fall yet we plummet on a loss to Tenn.

    • Tractorr says:

      I imagine that people would say something well Michigan plays in the Big 10 so they have way harder competition. Of course Florida still has a stronger strength of schedule so…

      • gatorboi352 says:

        If the last two years are any indication, it’s anybody’s guess on where UF will end up being seeded.

        In 2011 we were a highly over seeded 2 seed. In 2012 we were a highly under seeded 7 seed. *shrug*

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